I'm stuffing a lot into this post (appropriate for Thanksgiving weekend), as we conclude Rivalry Week and prepare for the final regular season week of college football. As expected in Rivalry Week, there were upsets and unexpected results. Western Kentucky spoiled Marshall's perfect season by successfully going for a two-point conversion in the first overtime period, beating them 67-66. Stanford demolished UCLA. Pitt shocked Miami to become bowl eligible. Air Force upset Colorado State, and Georgia Tech intercepted Georgia in overtime to seal their victory.
Some teams fought hard, even if they didn't win. Kentucky swapped leads with Louisville, who eventually won 44-40. Other surprises involved games expected to be close, which were major blowouts: Louisiana Tech over Rice, NC State over North Carolina, and Ole Miss over Mississippi State.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (11-1) [1] : Took over the game in the second half to knock off Auburn
2. Florida State Seminoles (12-0) [2] : Another close victory, and Jameis Winston throw four interceptions. They won't succeed against tough defenses
3. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1) [5] : Big win over rival Michigan, but lost QB JT Barrett. Everyone is signing their death warrant now, but the Buckeyes scored two touchdowns after Barrett left the game. They are still dangerous.
4. TCU Horned Frogs (10-1) [6] : Huge win over Texas
5. Oregon Ducks (11-1) [7] : Overpowered Oregon State
6. Baylor Bears (10-1) [4] : Nearly lost to Texas Tech
7. Michigan State Spartans (10-2) [10] : Huge win for Sparty
8. Wisconsin Badgers (10-2) [9] : Minnesota hung in, but Wisconsin won the right to face Ohio State
9. Mississippi State Bulldogs (10-2) [3] : Destroyed by Ole Miss
10. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (10-2) [11] : Great defeat of in-state rival
11. Arizona Wildcats (10-2) [12] : Won the right to face Oregon
12. Georgia Bulldogs (9-3) [8] : Fell to Tech
13. Ole Miss Rebels (9-3) [15] : Dominating victory over Miss St to conclude the season
14. Oklahoma Sooners (8-3) [14]
15. Kansas State Wildcats (9-2) [17]
16. Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3) [16]
17. Missouri Tigers (10-2) [18] : Great win to send them to the SEC Championship Game on momentuim
18. Marshall Thundering Herd (11-1) [13] : Unbeaten season is gone
19. Boise State Broncos (10-2) [24] : Thoroughly dominant over strong Utah State team
20. Memphis Tigers (9-3) [23]
21. Arizona State Wildcats (9-3) [19]
22. Auburn Tigers (8-4) [21]
23. Colorado State Rams (10-2) [22]
24. USC Trojans (8-4) [27]
25. Duke Blue Devils (9-3) [NR]
Dropped out: UCLA Bruins [#20], Louisville Cardinals [#25]
On the Edge: Western Michigan Broncos (8-4), Cincinnati Bearcats (8-3), Northern Illinois Huskies (10-2), East Carolina Pirates (8-3), Utah State Aggies (9-4, LSU Tigers (8-4), Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-4)
Before I get into the picks, let's look at the conferences without championship games, and see how their races are going:
American Athletic: Memphis has at least a share of the title. If UCF beats East Carolina, they have a share. If East Carolina wins, Memphis wins outright.
Big XII: If Baylor beats Kansas State, they win the title. If Baylor loses, TCU gets it (so long as they beat Iowa State). If by some weird chance both TCU and Baylor lose, then Kansas State is Big XII Champion.
Sun Belt: Georgia Southern has won
Non-Championship Games:
Thurs Dec 4
UCF Golden Knights at East Carolina Pirates: As stated above, UCF is battling for a share of the American Athletic Conference. East Carolina would love to play spoiler, and I think they have the defense to do it. EAST CAROLINA by four
Sat Dec 6
Iowa State Cyclones at #4 TCU Horned Frogs: TCU should win easily. They need a huge victory to impress the playoff selection committee. TCU by 27
#15 Kansas State Wildcats at #6 Baylor Bears The TCU game will be long complete when this game kicks off, so K State will know if they have a chance at the title. I don't think they will, so without that incentive they won't play as hard. BAYLOR by 13
Oklahoma State Cowboys at #14 Oklahoma Sooners: Oklahoma is playing for nothing more than a good bowl, but that's incentive enough against their in-state rival. OKLAHOMA by 20
Houston Cougars at Cincinnati Bearcats: Cincy should win, even though they can't get a share of the title if they do. CINCY by 16
Championship games:
MAC Championship: Bowling Green Falcons v Northern Illinois Huskies: Northern Illinois is certainly the stronger team, but surprises often happen in this conference's championship. I'll stick with the Huskies, though. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 16
Conference USA Championship: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs v #18 Marshall Thundering Herd: Marshall's chance at an unbeaten season has been wiped out, but they still want the respect they didn't get all season. A big win here will go a long way to getting that. MARSHALL by 26
Mountain West Championship: Fresno State Bulldogs v #19 Boise State Broncos: Fresno State made the championships because their division is weak. More so than the SEC, this conference has two divisions at entirely different power levels. BOISE STATE by 24
Pac-12 Championship: #11 Arizona Wildcats v #5 Oregon Ducks: Oregon knows that a victory leads to a spot in the playoffs. Arizona can be tricky. They are also the only team to have already beaten the Ducks this season. Can they make it two in a row? Maybe, but I have to favor the Ducks. OREGON by eight
Big Ten Championship: #8 Wisconsin Badgers v #3 Ohio State Buckeyes: Most people are writing off Ohio State, but they scored twice after JT Barrett went down with injury. The strategy here is for Ohio State's defense to slow the running game of Wisconsin. If they can force Stave to throw, they can stop drives and even generate turnovers. Stave is not a great quarterback, and is prone to bad judgement when he is rushed. The Buckeyes could win, even with their third string quarterback, under those circumstances. It is tough to slow down the Badgers' running attack, though, so I'll favor them by a slight margin. WISCONSIN by six
ACC Championship: #2 Florida State Seminoles v #10 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: Here is my first real upset in these championships. Florida State has sputtered during most the season. The past two weeks their "second half magic" has been lacking, too. Georgia Tech has a strong enough defense to disrupt the inconsistent Jameis Winston. The Seminoles didn't face the Yellow Jackets during the regular season, so they don't know what they are getting. GEORGIA TECH by ten
SEC Championship: #1 Alabama Crimson Tide v #17 Missouri Tigers: Missouri is a tough team, but Alabama is tougher. ALABAMA by 17
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