NCAA Bowl picks part II

As I write this, I have an even record in picking the bowl games.  The last few have been close-scoring affairs, including one overtime game won by a missed PAT.  Conference USA has already completed with a 4-1 record; that 80% success rate may be tough to beat.  The Mountain West and MAC have guaranteed losing bowl records and the Pac-12 is currently unbeaten at 3-0.

I left off with December 30th bowls, so let's pick up where I left off:

Dec 31
PEACH BOWL:  #11 Ole Miss Rebels (9-3) v #4 TCU Horned Frogs (11-1) : TCU has a chip on their shoulder for being left out of the playoff, so they want to slaughter whoever they play.  The fact that they face a former Number One ranked team will simply inspire them further.  Ole Miss has a decent defense, but I don't think they can overcome the offensive firepower they will face here.  TCU by 16

FIESTA BOWL:  #15 Boise State Broncos (11-2) v #18 Arizona Wildcats (10-3) : The Broncos are the last chance for the Mountain West Conference to impress in these bowl games.  I picked this game before the conference did so poorly in earlier bowl games, and I won't change my pick.  The Broncos have a high-powered offense that is well-balanced, so they can attack you on the ground or in the air.  Arizona has beaten some good teams, but aside from Washington State and Utah, their defense keep opponents in the game.  The Broncos offense is likely to overwhelm that defense, so I favor them.  BOISE STATE by ten

ORANGE BOWL:  #8 Mississippi State Bulldogs (10-2) at #10 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (10-3) : The Yellow Jackets have no passing game to speak of (122nd out of 125 FBS teams).  They rely on a pounding ground game.  Against one of the best defensive lines in the country, however?  That won't work.  The Bulldogs should score well enough to beat a Yellow Jackets team that will be lucky to gain 150 total yards in the game.  MISS STATE by 18

Jan 1
I'm pulling the playoff semi-final games out at putting them at the bottom of this column.

OUTBACK BOWL:  #22 Auburn Tigers (8-4) v #12 Wisconsin Badgers (10-3) : If you look at their last games, Auburn played tough in the Iron Bowl while Wisconsin was shut out by Ohio State.  That's all most SEC fans see.  Look at the Badgers body of work, though, and you see a team that wears down defenses with the best ground game in the country, and has just enough talent in the passing game to keep the runners rested.  Hidden in all of that is the fact that the Badgers defense is a Top Ten unit.  SEC defenders are known for speed, but this will be an endurance test, and I like Wisconsin's chances in that situation.  Also, former coach and current Athletic Director Barry Alvarez coaches this game after the departure of Gary Anderson, and Alvarez always had some tricks up his sleeves.  WISCONSIN by 13

COTTON BOWL:  #7 Michigan State Spartans (10-2) v #6 Baylor Bears (11-1) : I'd love to pick the Spartans for the upset, and they tend to play well in bowl games, but high-powered and quick-firing offenses have been the undoing of this defense in the past two years.  They led against Oregon, but a second-half surge by the Ducks cost them the game.  I fear Baylor will engineer the same thing.  If the Spartans learned from the Oregon loss, though, they might pull off the upset.  BAYLOR by 12

CITRUS BOWL:  #25 Missouri Tigers (10-3) v Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-4) : Geez, talk about a one-sided match-up!  Just due to records, people will think Minnesota doesn't stand a chance.  The Gophers were a tricky team this season, though, pulling out all the stops against tougher opponents.  The Gophers may hang in there until midway in the fourth quarter, but a couple of late scores will propel Missouri to the win.  MISSOURI by 13

Jan 2
ARMED FORCES BOWL:  Houston Cougars (7-5) v Pittsburgh Panthers (6-6) : Pitt was a decent team this year, but too inconsistent to have confidence that they can match up against a physical Houston team.  HOUSTON by ten

TAXSLAYER BOWL: Iowa Hawkeyes (7-5) v Tennessee Volunteers (6-6) : A rare Big Ten bowl game where the Big Ten team has a better record.  Half of Tennessee's wins were against weak non-conference opponents.  In conference they beat winless Vandy and a pathetic Kentucky team.  Iowa, on the other hand, battled for their division title until the bitter end.  IOWA by 12

ALAMO BOWL:  #17 Kansas State Wildcats (9-3) v UCLA Bruins (9-3) : UCLA is hoping to finish a season of disappointment.  They thought they'd compete for the conference title, but that didn't happen.  QB Brett Huntley did not progress as expected, and the Bruins were inconsistent in their play.  Unfortunately, they face a Wildcats team that competed very favorably in the high-powered Big XII conference.  K State will roll, as their offense is too strong for the UCLA defense.  KANSAS STATE by 20

CACTUS BOWL:  Washington Huskies (8-4) v Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-6) : The Cowboys will keep this game closer than expected, as they competed against the strong teams in the Big XII.  Washington could not beat the best teams in the Pac-12, but they played well against all of them except Arizona State.  That strength of competition will serve the Huskies well in this bout.  WASHINGTON by six

Jan 3 -- BIRMINGHAM BOWL:  East Carolina Pirates (8-4) v Florida Gators (6-6) : I'm going to do something radical, and pick against an SEC team playing a non-Power 5 team.  The Gators struggled all season with their young team.  The Pirates defense is talented, and will show the Gators things these young players haven't seen.  This will be a low-scoring game, but definitely one-sided. EAST CAROLINA by nine

Jan 4 -- GODADDY BOWL: Toledo Rockets (8-4) v Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-5) : Key game for the Rockets and the MAC.  A Rockets loss would be devastating for the conference.  Trust me, that is on their mind.  The Rockets have a slightly better offense but the Red Wolves have a slightly better defense, so these two are fairly evenly matched.  Expect a close game, possibly another overtime game.  If it does go to extra time, I favor the deeper bench of the Rockets.  TOLEDO by three

Playoffs
ROSE BOWL: #5 Oregon Ducks (12-1) v #3 Florida State Seminoles (13-0) : The Ducks are favored, and I have to agree with that.  The Ducks are the type of team that Florida State cannot withstand.  They have a potent offense that frequently scores; they have a very high success rate.  QB Marcus Mariota has been playing flawlessly; the Seminoles defense relies on turnovers to help bring Florida State back later in the game.  They won't be able to do that here.  Oregon will take an early lead, as many of the Seminoles foes have done, scoring on their first three possessions.  By the time Jameis Winston and company start clicking, they will face a 17-point or larger deficit.  They've come back from that, but not if the Seminoles defense can't stop the Ducks offense.  OREGON by 16

SUGAR BOWL:  #1 Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1) v #2 Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1) : I'd love to think Ohio State could win this game, especially after shutting out Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game, but Alabama has too many tools.  The Buckeyes will stop their running game, and suppress Amari Cooper for a while, but the Tide will find ways to move.  The Tide defense will rush and stymie QB Cardale Jones, who will start to lose his cool.  ALABAMA by 12

CHAMPIONSHIP:  I have to consider several combinations, as we don't know who will win.  Let's start with my projected winners, and look at Oregon v Alabama.  The problem is Oregon's weaker defense.  A Championship game between those two will be an offensive showdown, which seems to benefit Oregon.  However, Alabama won high-scoring battles (remember the Iron Bowl?) too, and their defense is fast enough to compete with Oregon.  It would be a close game, but I'd favor ALABAMA in that game.

What if Florida State wins?  It won't be close.  Alabama's defense is stiff and will prevent a Seminoles comeback; the Tide defense played best in the second half, and especially in the fourth quarter.  ALABAMA again.

What if Alabama is shocked by Ohio State?  The key there is whether JT Barrett is healthy by Jan 12th.  If he is, will they bring him in cold?  Given the fact that Cardale Jones would have beaten Alabama, Coach Meyer will likely keep him in there, but have Barrett available to spell him.  That would help against a challenge like Oregon, where they will try to wear down opponents.  The Buckeyes defense is deep enough that Oregon won't exhaust their players.  Ohio State's only loss was due to a poor game on the part of JT Barrett; if the QB is "on", Ohio State is tough to beat.  No matter whether they face Oregon or Florida State, I'd have to favor them if they get past Alabama.

Therefore, the winner of the Sugar Bowl is my pick for the National Champion.