One major takeaway from Week 16 -- divisional games screw up records. These teams know each other, so it almost doesn't matter what someone's record is coming into the game. Lots of unpredictable results happen.
The playoff picture became much clearer. Coming into the week, we knew the winners of three AFC divisional and one NFC team had clinched the playoffs. Now, we know five of the six playoff teams in each conference and the number one seed in the AFC is clinched. The New England Patriots will have home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Denver can clinch the second seed with a win this week, and they are at home against Oakland. Cincy and Pittsburgh play for the remaining AFC title and for third seed. Colts have the fourth seed. The last AFC playoff spot goes to San Diego if they win. A Ravens win and Chargers loss sends Baltimore to the playoffs. Houston can go if the Texans win and both the Chargers and Ravens lose. KC is the only other contender, who goes if all three lose and they win.
The NFC has only one division title crowned -- Dallas has won the East and the number three seed. Detroit and Green Bay play for the North title. Seattle captures the West with a win, and also gains the number one seed. The number two seed goes to the NFC North winner, who can win the number one seed if Seattle loses. The number four seed goes to the NFC South winner, determined by the winner of the Carolina v Atlanta clash. The NFC West and NFC North runners-up are the wildcards, and the seeding will be determined by head-to-head or conference record as follows: Seattle over Green Bay, Detroit over Seattle, Arizona over Detroit, Arizona over Green Bay.
Top Twelve [Last week's position]
1. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (12-3) [1] : They may have squeaked by the Jets this week, but they have the best record in the league
2. Seattle Seahawks (11-4) [5] : Dominance over Arizona gives them best shot for number one seed
3. Green Bay Packers (11-4) [3] : Strong win, but offense should have done better against Tampa Bay
4. Denver Broncos (11-4) [2] : Shocking loss and dismal performance by Peyton, but still in drivers' seat for second seed
5. Dallas Cowboys (11-4) [8] : Captured NFC East crown and successfully overcame December jinx
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5) [10] : Stronger team heading into AFC North showdown
7. Indianapolis Colts (10-5) [4] : Utterly demolished by Dallas and consigned to the fourth seed
8. Baltimore Ravens (9-6) [6] : Could be the best team left out of the playoffs
9. Detroit Lions (11-4) [11] : Despite near loss to Chicago, in line to win division
10. Philadelphia Eagles (9-6) [9] : Their loss to Washington helped Dallas win the division a week early
11. Arizona Cardinals (11-4) [7] : Demolished by Seattle, they need help to win NFC West, or be fifth seed
12. Cincinnati Bengals (10-4-1) [15] : The win over Denver gains them AFC North lead
Best NFC South team:
19. Atlanta Falcons (6-9)
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. AFC North [1] : Two teams in the playoffs and a third contending - no other division has a shot at three playoff teams
2. NFC West [1] : Possible location of Number One seed in the NFC
3 (tie). NFC North [4] : Close losses by Chicago and Minnesota and the leaders playing for first round bye
3 (tie). NFC East [6] : Division jumps up with strong wins by Dallas and the Giants
5. AFC East [3] : Pats looked tired against Jets, Buffalo lost to Oakland, and Miami barely beat Minnesota. They went from three potential playoff teams to only one in a single week
6. AFC West [5] : Denver's pathetic performance hurt, and San Diego needed overtime to beat the 49ers
7. AFC South [7] : Texans won - only highlight
8. NFC South [8] : Carolina should have beaten Cleveland by more, even with Hoyer in for Manziel
Sunday early games
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots: The Patriots already have home field advantage throughout the playoffs, so Coach Belichick is likely to rest many of his key guys. He won't be able to keep Tom Brady off the field, but backup offensive and defensive guys will get playing time. That should allow Buffalo to finish the season with a win. BILLS, 23-17
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings: Despite a losing record, Teddy Bridgewater has had a decent rookie season. A win would be the best way to finish the season. A Bears loss would also point out that they need a new direction. VIKINGS, 26-23
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens: Manziel's injury has put Hoyer back under center, and he had a decent game last week. Unfortunately, "decent" won't be good enough against the tough Ravens, who are battling for a playoff spot. RAVENS, 26-13
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins: The Cowboys have no shot for a playoff bye, so normally I'd say they should rest their players; they should certainly rest DeMarco Murray. However, most of the Cowboys will want to play against their rivals, which means the Redskins will be destroyed. COWBOYS, 31-20
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: The Colts cannot get a playoff bye, and even third seed is unlikely. They will likely rest some players. However, I think the Titans are bad enough to lose even with the Colts resting. COLTS, 20-17
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans: The Texans have an outside chance at the playoffs, not that they'd need that incentive to beat the Jags. TEXANS, 26-13
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Bucs: The Saints aren't playing for anything other than pride. For the Bucs, they lost that about four weeks ago. SAINTS, 27-20
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins: By now, I think the Jets know that they aren't playing to save Rex Ryan's job -- he'll be gone. The players love him, so they may want to give him a win for his final game. They failed to give him a win in their final home game, so they will stretch Miami. The Dolphins won't go quietly, though, and they could sneak up on them in the fourth quarter. DOLPHINS, 23-17
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants: Coach Kelly doesn't know how to quit, so the Eagles won't slow down in this final game, even though they have no shot at the playoffs. EAGLES, 27-23
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs: Here's an interesting game, perhaps the most interesting of the early games. The Chargers need a win to reach the playoffs. The Chiefs would love to play spoiler, as well as having an outside chance at the playoffs. This will be a classic slugfest, with the lead changing several times. While I normally pick the home team in such bouts, I'll give a slight edge to San Diego. CHARGERS, 24-23
Sunday late games
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers: The Cards know they could still win the NFC West, although they would need help. That will keep them fighting. Their defense is their strength. That defense is stronger than the 49ers, whose offense is sputtering. If Harbaugh and Kaepernick can regain their form, the 49ers could win. However, I don't think they've figured out what is wrong, so I don't see a return to form coming. CARDINALS, 20-17
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons have an unbeaten divisional record, and are certainly poised to keep that and win the title with a 7-9 record. Carolina struggled against Cleveland last week, so I like Atlanta even more. FALCONS, 20-17
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers: This will be a great battle! The winner captures the NFC North crown and a playoff bye, so both teams will be primed. The Packers offense has been explosive all year. While the Lions defense will be fierce, I think the Pack has just too many weapons. PACKERS, 23-21
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos: Oakland would love to play spoiler, but the Broncos want a strong game to propel them into the playoffs. Expect an offensive explosion, more than the Raiders defense can handle. BRONCOS, 30-17
St Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks: One team that has not feared the 12th Man is the Rams. They will play tough again this year, but Seattle has been getting better each week. Knowing they have the top seed on the line, their defense will be unstoppable. SEAHAWKS, 23-17
Sunday night: Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: After a shutout and then shut down of Peyton Manning, the Bengals come into this game with great momentum. The Steelers have been unbearable at this season, though, averaging nearly 20 points more than on the road. While Cincy will fight hard for that division title, I think the Steelers will pull this one out. STEELERS, 26-23
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