NCAA 2014 Bowl picks part I

Snow is on the ground, malls are filled with Christmas shoppers, so it's that time of year again.  Time for my annual look at the NCAA bowl games.  Two new bowls were added this year, making the task even more daunting.  I will again split my picks into two columns.  This one will examine the games prior to New Years Eve.

Sat Dec 20
New Orleans Bowl:  Nevada Wolf Pack (7-5) v Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns (8-4):  This Mountain West v Sun Belt match-up is often won by the Sun Belt.  The Ragin Cajuns were a pretty good team this year, and they're going to have plenty of fans in their corner, as they don't have far to travel to attend this game. Both teams are fairly even matched.  They both prefer to run versus pass, and both allowed about 28 points per game this season.  The difference is their non-conference performance.  Nevada, with a tougher schedule, went 3-1, while the Cajuns went 1-3.  Not even a bunch of friendly fans can overcome that.  NEVADA by six

New Mexico Bowl:  Utah State Aggies (9-4) v UTEP Miners (7-5):  The Aggies spent part of the season flirting with the Top 25.  They did that in strange style for the Mountain West -- on defense.  The Aggies were stingy, holding most opponents to 20 points or less.  They even held high-powered Colorado State to 16 points.  An opening loss to Tennessee was erased by great play later in the season.  Two of their losses were to ranked teams:  Colorado State and Boise State.  I like the Aggies in this one.  UTAH STATE by 13

Las Vegas Bowl:  Utah Utes (8-4) v #21 Colorado State Rams (10-2):  The state of Utah will be focused on ESPN and ABC Saturday afternoon, as both of their state schools battle in bowls.  Utah had a decent season against Pac-12 opponents, and went unbeaten with a fairly easy non-conference schedule.  The Rams were ignored by most national analysts, who seem to ignore any Mountain West team except Boise State.  That may be the undoing of the favored Utes.  The Rams are a strong team, especially through the air.  They have one of the Top Ten passing attacks in the country.  That may prove too much for the overtaxed Utah secondary.  The best comparison between these two?  How they played against common opponent Colorado.  Utah won by only four, while the Rams won by fourteen.  COLORADO STATE by 16

Idaho Potato Bowl:  Western Michigan Broncos (8-4) v Air Force Falcons (9-3): A busy day for the Mountain West concludes with this fourth bowl game, as the Falcons face off against Western Michigan.  Again, much of the nation ignores the MAC conference, but Air Force should not dismiss Western Michigan.  After early struggles against Purdue and Virginia Tech, the Broncos buckled down and had a tremendous run until getting beaten in their final game against eventual MAC Champion Northern Illinois.  They only lost by ten points, which is quite an accomplishment (just ask Bowling Green about that!).  That momentum will be valuable rolling into this bowl game.  WESTERN MICHIGAN by eight

Camellia Bowl:  South Alabama Jaguars (6-6) v Bowling Green Falcons (7-6) : The MAC runner-up gets no love after being thrashed by Northern Illinois in the MAC Championships, as they are relegated to this new bowl, created mostly to give the Sun Belt a third bowl game.  Nice idea, but the Jaguars are horribly overmatched.  BOWLING GREEN by 20

Mon Dec 22
BYU Cougars (8-4) v #19 Memphis Tigers (9-3):  Who has the best defense outside of the Power Five conferences?  Memphis, who has the Number Five defense in the country.  Why that didn't give them national attention I do not know, but I credited their performance with a Top 25 ranking.  They'll get a bowl victory, too.  MEMPHIS by 16

Tues Dec 23
Boca Raton Bowl:  #14 Marshall Thundering Herd (12-1) v #24 Northern Illinois Huskies (11-2):  The key factor to determining a victor here is whether Marshall has gotten over their shocking overtime loss to Western Kentucky, when the Hilltoppers successfully went for a two-point conversion, that cost them their unbeaten season.  They hadn't for the Conference USA Championship, barely eking out a three-point victory.  Northern Illinois was not overpowering opponents, but they won steadily (with the exception of the Central Michigan upset) after their blow-out loss to Arkansas.  The Huskies capped their season with a dominant win in the MAC Championship.  That shows how strong the Huskies can be, and what they can do if Marshall's head isn't in the game.  I'll pick the Herd, but watch out for the Huskies if Marshall isn't mentally aware.  MARSHALL by four

Poinsettia Bowl:  Navy Midshipmen (7-5) v San Diego State Aztecs (7-5):  Even records, but not evenly matched.  Navy concluded their season with a tough struggle against Army.  Yes, the Black Knights were improved this season, but it was still a poor performance.  San Diego State had some impressive games this season, and should dominate this game.  SAN DIEGO STATE by 16

Wed Dec 24
Bahamas Bowl:  Central Michigan Chippewas (7-5) v Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7-5):  The Bahamas add their tropical paradise to Hawaii in the "fantasy locations" bowl duo on Christmas Eve.  It pits the strong defense of the Chippewas against the powerful offense of the Hilltoppers.  I usually pick the defense in such battles, but the Hilltoppers have played well in close games, which I suspect this one will be.  WESTERN KENTUCKY by four

Hawaii Bowl:  Fresno State Bulldogs (6-7) v Rice Owls (7-5):  Okay, I accept that any team who played in a conference championship should be given a bowl game, but to reward a team with a losing season with a trip to Hawaii?  I can't see it.  The Bulldogs will be happy to be there, and will play tough in the first half, but I think Rice will come back to spoil the Bulldogs attempt at a non-losing season.  RICE by five

Fri Dec 26
Illinois Fighting Illini (6-6) v Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (8-5):  Once again the bowl committee pairs Big Ten teams against teams with better records.  They conspire to make the Big Ten's bowl record poor.  However, it may backfire in this case.  Yes, Tech made it to the Conference USA Championship Game, where they lost to nearly-unbeaten Marshall by only three points, but Tech's non-conference schedule was a joke, and they still went 1-4, including losses to FCS Northwestern State (who didn't even make the FCS playoffs) and former FCS Old Dominion.  Both teams have strong passing games, but Illinois' rushing game didn't appear until the end of the season.  If that was a signal of things to come, they might pull out the victory.  I'll pick Tech, but I'm rooting for my Illini.  LOUISIANA TECH by six

Detroit Bowl:  Rutgers Scarlet Knights (7-5) v North Carolina Tar Heels (6-6):  I think the bowl selection committee forgot that Rutgers joined the Big Ten conference this year, and paired them against a weaker team.  Fine, we'll take the victory.  RUTGERS by 13

St Petersburg Bowl:  NC State Wolfpack (7-5) v UCF Golden Knights (9-3):  It won't be a pleasant day for North Carolinians, as both of their state schools are doomed to fall to Knights.  The Golden Knights have a stiff defense, and they will stymie the Wolfpack.  Worse, NC State suffered from turnover problems during much of the season, and UCF is very opportunistic when it comes to forcing turnovers, and gaining points from them.  UCF by 21

Sat Dec 27
Military Bowl:  Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3) v Virginia Tech Hokies (6-6):  As Ohio State can attest, never discount the Hokies.  However, this was not one of their better seasons (despite the early victory over the Buckeyes).  Despite the likelihood of a sea of Hokie fans (since they aren't that far from Annapolis), the Hokies will be taxed by a strong Bearcat offense.  CINCINNATI by 16

Sun Bowl:  #20 Arizona State Sun Devils (9-3) v Duke Blue Devils (9-3):  Can it the be-Deviled bowl.  Duke actually has a better point differential, but that was against weaker opponents.  The Sun Devils were a terror in the highly-competitive Pac-12 this season, churning out five consecutive victories after a horrible loss to UCLA back in September.  ARIZONA STATE by 14

Independence Bowl:  Miami Hurricanes (6-6) v South Carolina Gamecocks (6-6):  Geez, I'm not even sure I care who wins this one.  Neither team lived up to their expectations this season.  Miami was ranked preseason, and they were supposed to contend with Florida State.  An opening loss to Louisville foreshadowed a dismal season that concluded with three consecutive losses.  Miami's only highlight?  A dominating win over Duke.  The Gamecocks took a massive step backwards defensively this season, and found they were battling for every victory.  Their only dominant victories were against Furman and South Alabama.  That leans me towards Miami, but I'm not sure either team will inspire me to watch the game.  Certainly their sponsor keeps me away, as the bearded hicks of TV's Duck Dynasty have decided to take over sponsorship of this once-prestigious bowl game.  MIAMI by six

Pinstripe Bowl:  Boston College Eagles (7-5) v Penn State Nittany Lions (6-6):  Call this one the battle of defenses.  Both teams have better defenses than offenses.  I think Penn State has the slightly better defense, which might be enough to win the game.  PENN STATE by four

Holiday Bowl:  #13 Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3) v #23 USC Trojans (8-4):  Holiday Bowls tend to be high-scoring affairs, and this one has the potential to be so.  Nebraska needs to reverse the downward spiral they experienced to close the regular season.  They will be counting on Ameer Abdullah to find holes in the Trojans defensive line, and QB Tommy Armstrong to thread the ball through USC's secondary.  On the other side, the Trojans are counting on QB Cody Kessler and WR Nelson Agholor to be in sync and generate some long plays.  Since the game is in California, the crowd will be behind the Trojans, and the Cornhuskers have a new coach.  But that new coach is actually an advantage, as Mike Riley moves from Oregon State to Nebraska.  Riley has seen the Trojans in action, and knows how to deal with them (despite losing to them 31-10 earlier this season).  NEBRASKA by six

Mon Dec 29

Liberty Bowl:  Texas A&M Aggies (7-5) v West Virginia Mountaineers (7-5):  The Aggies have a great passing game, but no running game nor defense.  The Mountaineers have a working running game, and perhaps an even better passing attack than that of the Aggies.  That adds up to a Mountaineers victory to me.  WEST VIRGINIA by nine

Russell Athletic Bowl:  #16 Oklahoma Sooners (8-4) v Clemson Tigers (9-3):  Clemson is favored, but Oklahoma played well in a fierce Big XII conference this season.  Aside from the last week overtime loss to rival Oklahoma State, the Sooners lost only to TCU, Baylor, and Kansas State.  They have one of the best running attacks in the game, which can wear out the Clemson defense.  It might be close early, but the Sooners will pull away in the fourth.  OKLAHOMA by 11

Texas Bowl:  Arkansas Razorbacks (6-6) v Texas Longhorns (6-6):  Arkansas had one of the toughest schedules in the country, playing nine ranked teams.  They shut out two of those, lost to Number One Alabama by one point (and held the Tide to their lowest offensive output of the season), lost to then-Number One Mississippi State by only seven, and fell to Aggies in overtime.  They'd be a lock to win this game, right?  Except Texas has been nearly unbeaten in the state of Texas, losing only to Baylor and TCU in their home state.  The Longhorns also had three very impressive wins at the end of the season, prior to the TCU loss.  The bowl selection committee looked very favorably upon Texas, and that might be the tide turner.  TEXAS by six

Tues Dec 30
Music City Bowl:  Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-5) v LSU Tigers (8-4):  Two teams who definitely had visions of a better 2014, LSU was undone by a pathetic passing attack.  They are bolstered, however, by one of the stiffest defenses in the country.  The Irish have crumbled under tough defenses, and they face their toughest one all season here.  LSU by 13

Belk Bowl:  #9 Georgia Bulldogs (9-3) v Louisville Cardinals (9-3):  The records may be even, but the level of their competition was far from it.  This might be the most one-sided bowl of them all.  GEORGIA by 30

Santa Clara Bowl:  Maryland Terrapins (7-5) v Stanford Cardinal (7-5):  Nearly a home game for Stanford, they face a Maryland team who actually had a decent season in our inaugural Big Ten run.  A poor defense will be Maryland's undoing, however.  STANFORD by 12