Wednesday, August 31, 2011

NCAA 2011: Week 1 picks

It's time to start the NCAA football season! I still need to do my NFL preview columns, but college football has always started before the pros. Instead of easing into it, as the NCAA has often done in the past, we get a nearly full slate of games this weekend (only the Ivy League delays their start). Since I don't have a Top 25 yet (and won't for two weeks, as too many teams play FCS schools this week), I'll examine games by teams I predicted to be in the top, as well as my home conference, Big Ten.

Thursday, Sept 1st
Montana State at Utah Utes: Montana State shared the Big Sky Conference title last year. They're good, but not good enough to overcome one of the most powerful teams in FBS. UTAH

New Hampshire at Toledo Rockets: The MAC plays the Big Ten tough, a Colonial Athletic team won't raise a sweat. TOLEDO

UC Davis at Arizona State Sun Devils: One of the top teams in the Pac-12 against a team that was Division II not long ago? This is one-sided contest. ARIZONA STATE

Friday, Sept 2nd
TCU Horned Frogs at Baylor Bears: We get two FBS teams, but still not much competition. Baylor may not end up at the bottom of the Big XII, but they won't stand long against the Horned Frogs. TCU

Saturday, Sept 3rd
Big Ten
Akron Zips at Ohio State Buckeyes: Although the MAC tends to play tough against the Big Ten, and Ohio State starts a string of five games without key returning starters, I think the Buckeyes can win this. It may be a very close game, much to the chagrin of Buckeye fans. OHIO STATE

Arkansas State Red Wolves at Illinois Fighting Illini: The Illini don't have much of a team this year, but the Red Wolves won't give them too much trouble. ILLINOIS

Chattanooga at Nebraska Cornhuskers: Now that the Cornhuskers are in the Big Ten, they need to upgrade the quality of their openers. NEBRASKA

Indiana Hoosiers at Ball State Cardinals: Although the Cardinals won't have a good season, they start with an interesting matchup. This game could go either way, although I'll give slight credit to the Hoosiers. Watch out for Ball State, a hard-fighting MAC team, though. INDIANA

Indiana State at Penn State Nittany Lions: Aside from the Nebraska game, likely the most one-sided game of the conference. PENN STATE

Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders at Purdue Boilermakes: Like most of the conference, Purdue gets an easy opponent for their home opener. PURDUE

Minnesota Golden Gophers at USC Trojans: This is the game that spoils the perfect record for the Big Ten. USC doesn't have much to play for, but beating teams from their rival conference IS incentive. Minnesota doesn't have the depth or weapons to stand against the Trojans. USC

Northwestern Wildcats at Boston College Eagles: This game could also go against the Big Ten, but I'll favor the sheer tenacity and ferocity of the Wildcats. NORTHWESTERN in a squeaker

Tennessee Tech at Iowa Hawkeyes: The Hawkeyes score an easy win, too. IOWA

UNLV Rebels at Wisconsin Badgers: UNLV removes the "Running" part of their team name, probably because their running game isn't much to brag about. Wisconsin's, on the hand, is very potent. WISCONSIN

Western Michigan Broncos at Michigan Wolverines: An in-state rivalry that could result in an upset (and thereby giving Brady Hoke a similar beginning to his term at Michigan as Rich Rodriguez had), but I'll give Hoke and the Wolverines a small edge. MICHIGAN

Youngstown State at Michigan State Spartans: Some Spartan bashers are predicting an upset, but Michigan State's success last year was no fluke. MICHIGAN STATE

GAME OF THE WEEK: LSU Tigers at Oregon Ducks: Both teams are competing for a chance to play in the BCS title game. The loser starts off behind in that race. LSU is the favorite of many national analysts, some predicting LSU could win it all. Their defense is traditionally stout, and QB Jordan Jefferson has been consistently a force. However, I don't think LSU has seen the kind of high-powered offense engineered by Oregon for a couple of years. OREGON

The Rest:
Army Black Knights at Northern Illinois Huskies: Army should have a good team this year, but the Huskies are a team battling for a conference title. NORTHERN ILLINOIS

Boise State Broncos at Georgia Bulldogs: Boise looks to conquer new territory and take Utah's place as a perennial Mountain West favorite. Georgia hasn't been a tough team since the departure of Matt Stafford. BOISE STATE

Bowling Green Falcons at Idaho Vandals: How far have the Falcons fallen? How about the fact that I am NOT picking them? They are the favorite, but I think the Vandals could pull off the upset. IDAHO

BYU Cougars at Ole Miss Rebels: Sorry, Ole Miss fans, no upset here. BYU's move to Independent status may have been financially motivated, but it gives them more chances to play teams from BCS conferences. Unfortunately, Ole Miss won't really help their "strength of schedule" ranking. BYU

Fresno State Bulldogs at California Golden Bears: Cal may hope for an opening win, but Fresno State is a powerful team. Cal has lost some strength, so they're vulnerable. FRESNO STATE

Florida Atlantic Owls at Florida Gators: Florida should win, but Schnellenberger's Owls may make it interesting. FLORIDA

Kent State Golden Flashes at Alabama Crimson Tide: Alabama looks to position themselves for a high ranking by winning big, and they picked a good opponent to do that. ALABAMA

Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns at Oklahoma State Cowboys: The Cowboys fast-paced offense will be too much for the Ragin' Cajuns. OKLAHOMA STATE

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks at Florida State Seminoles: The Seminoles return to an old habit of an easy non-conference schedule as they pulverize the Warhawks. FLORIDA STATE

Miami Ohio Redhawks at Missouri Tigers: The Tigers aren't as strong as they have been recently, but the Redhawks will still have a hard time. MISSOURI

San Jose State Spartans at Stanford Cardinal: With the return of Andrew Luck, Stanford is a big favorite to make the BCS Championship Game. I'm not so sure, but Stanford will start with a win. STANFORD

South Carolina Gamecocks at East Carolina Pirates: The Pirates' mainstay, their defense, is down a bit this season, which gives the Gamecocks a farily easy game. SOUTH CAROLINA

South Florida Bulls at Notre Dame Fighting Irish: If South Florida's defense was up to snuff this season, this could be a close game. Unfortunately, the Bulls are down this season, so the Irish have a victory. NOTRE DAME

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Oklahoma Sooners: This should be a huge victory for the Sooners. OKLAHOMA

UCLA Bruins at Houston Cougars: Some people are taking about UCLA's possible resurgence this season. I don't think so. Houston, on the other hand, will be a strong team. HOUSTON

Utah State Aggies at Auburn Tigers: The Tigers begin their national title defense by slaughtering the WAC's perennial doormat. AUBURN

Appalachian State at Virgina Tech Hokies: No FBS upset for Appalachian this season. VIRGINIA TECH

Cal Poly at San Diego State Aztecs: Easy win for the Aztecs. SAN DIEGO

Missouri State at Arkansas Razorbacks: This easy win will give the impression that Arkansas is better than they are. The Razorbacks have talent, but they lost a lot, too. ARKANSAS

Sacramento State at Oregon State Beavers: Another easy victory that belies some of the weaknesses of the winning team. OREGON STATE

Texas State at Texas Tech Red Raiders: Another in-state FBS v FCS matchup that ends with a win for the home FBS team. TEXAS TECH

Sunday, Sept 4th
Marshall Thundering Herd at West Virginia Mountaineers: It won't be a great year for the Big East, but West Virginia will be a force. WEST VIRGINIA

SMU Mustangs at Texas A&M Aggies: The Aggies have all the pieces to make a run for the Big XII title. This win is the first step. TEXAS A&M

Monday, Sept 5th
Miami Hurricanes at Maryland Terrapins: Miami has troubled times ahead, and that's going to weigh heavily on them during the season. Maryland is strong enough to start Miami reeling. MARYLAND

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