Welcome to the final regional preview for the 2011 college football season. We travel west to examine the expanded Pac-10 (now called the Pac-12), the Mountain West, and WAC.
Pac-12 North
1. Stanford Cardinal (8-1/11-1): The team retained most of their talent from last year, including QB Andrew Luck, but the loss of Coach Harbaugh hurts them. The man is an innovator; he can be beaten by a particular scheme once, but he'll find a way to beat it, either the following year or later in the same game. Without that, can Stanford continue to overwhelm? I'm not sure their opponents this year will throw too many surprises at them, and their schedule helps by giving them their toughest opponents at home.
2. Oregan Ducks (8-1/11-1): The Ducks return most of their starters from last year, as well. The areas that lost the most were the lines, both offensive and defensive. Rebuilding the lines makes their first game, against LSU, tricky. Even if they survive that one, I'm not sure they'll be fully prepared for Stanford.
3. Oregon State Beavers (5-4/6-6): The Beavers are a tough team, but they are suffering from a tough schedule. They'll probably upset an opponent or two, but it won't be enough to reach second place in this division. Like the Ducks, they need to rebuild both lines. They also need to build up an effective running game.
4. Washington Huskies (5-4/7-5): Their new quarterback, whoever that ends up being, has a great support staff behind and beside him. In front of him, though, is a weak offensive line. A solid defense will keep the Huskies in most games, but any team with a fast rushing defense will hold them back.
5. California Golden Bears (3-6/4-8): Whoever becomes the new quarterback will have a great corps of receivers catching his passes. The Bears have a strong offensive line, too, but it is uncertain how good their runners are. A rebuilt defense makes them susceptible to quick and talented offenses, which this conference has aplenty.
6. Washington State Cougars (1-8/3-9): This team has plenty of weaknesses. Their running offense is mostly ineffective, and both lines are weak. Their quarterback will be running for his life, and the secondary is too slow to stop opposing quarterbacks.
Pac-12 South
1. Utah Utes (9-0/12-0): A favorable schedule allows the Utes to avoid both Stanford and Oregon until the conference championship. The Utes are solid everywhere, but they are breaking in a new runner. I have a special message to their opponents -- watch out for Utah's special teams!
2. Arizona State Sun Devils (7-2/10-2): This is a strong team, they just face two stronger ones on the road.
3. USC Trojans (4-4/6-6): With no bowl game to play for, and a roster thin at key positions, they won't fight hard. USC has no pride now, their history of cheating is exposed. Without a physical prize to play for, the Trojans don't care.
4. Arizona Wildcats (3-5/4-8): A new offensive line and a thin backfield adds up to a weak running game. One-sided offenses don't usually go well. A strong defense may keep many of their games close, but most of those will end up losses.
5. UCLA Bruins (1-7/3-9): Goodbye, Rick Neuheisel. This job is on the line, and this may be his worst season at LA. He has no passing game to speak of, a poor defense, and an injury-prone offensive line. This eliminates any job security Neuheisel may hope for.
6. Colorado Buffaloes (1-7/2-10): This team lacks depth, and they won't be able to withstand the fierce attacks of opponents like Stanford and Oregon. Injuries suffered in those games will cost them winnable games later in the season.
Pac-12 Champion: Stanford Cardinal
Mountain West
1. Boise State Broncos (7-0/12-0): This team is strong everywhere except the kicking game. Somehow I'm not sure they'll need one.
2. TCU Horned Frogs (5-2/10-2): This is the Horned Frogs last year in the Mountain West, but they won't be able to repeat as conference champion. They are breaking in a new quarterback, Casey Pachall. He has great receivers but little running support. That means opposing defenses will force him into third and long situations. A stout defense will prevent Pachall from having to come from behind a large deficit, but it'll still be a tough challenge.
3. San Diego State Aztecs (5-2/9-3): Coach Brady Hoke went to Michigan, where he might engineer the Aztecs only non-conference loss when they meet this season. This team is strong at all positions, but they have an endurance problem. If they can improve their fourth-quarter performance, they could leap over the Frogs.
4. Air Force Falcons (5-2/9-3): A large number of returning starters has the Falcons looking food. Their challenge for 2011 is to reduce turnovers and play more consistently.
5. Colorado State Rams (3-4/5-7): A strong offensive line will protect their quarterback, but the Rams running game is suspect. A fast defense will hold down opponent's big plays, but the Rams won't have many themselves.
6. Wyoming Cowboys (2-5/4-8): Good runners, but a new quarterback and thin receiving corps keeps them grounded. Their starting defense is good, but they lack depth. If they receive injuries, their defense is finished.
7. New Mexico Lobos (1-6/3-9): An experienced quarterback and good receivers make for a strong passing game. Running game seems suspect. Nine starters return on defense, but last year this team had the worst defense in the conference, so defense is definitely their weak point.
8. UNLV Rebels (0-7/1-11): The Rebels lost their best offensive players in the off-season. This team has holes everywhere.
WAC
1. Hawaii Warriors (7-1/9-3): Hawaii with the best defense in the WAC? Yup. The Warriors have an experienced QB, but the rest of the offense is fairly new, so the normally highly productive offense may take some time to develop this year. A favorable schedule and that strong defense will give them the chance.
2. Fresno State Bulldogs (7-1/8-4): This is a strong team, but their schedule is brutal! They play the toughest Mountain West teams, and then face the Warriors in Hawaii.
3. Nevada Wolf Pack (4-4/6-6): The Wolf Pack suffered key losses on offense. A good defense keeps them in games, and that offense should improve as the season progresses.
4. Utah State Aggies (4-4/6-6): Coach Gary Anderson moved players around, hoping to speed up the defense and shape up the offense. I don't know if it will work, but I do know that it will take time for the players to adjust to their new positions.
5. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (3-5/4-8): They have a decent running game, but a system of rotating quarterbacks makes their passing game suspect. A weak defense doesn't help their situation, either.
6. San Jose State Spartans (3-5/3-9): The Spartans have a solid defense and a decent corps of receivers. That's the extent of their positive aspects. A new quarterback, inexperienced runners, and restructured offensive line adds up to a questionable team who will struggle all season.
7. New Mexico State Aggies (1-7/1-11): The Aggies have a strong running game, but not much else. They won't survive on a one-sided ground game.
8. Idaho Vandals (0-8/1-11): Idaho returns to the basement as the Vandals struggle to rebuild their defense and passing game.
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