Welcome to a new year of NCAA FBS football! Like always, I will be providing my predictions on top teams in the eleven FBS conferences, as well as the Independents. That can be a long column done together, so I'm breaking it into three main regions: East, Central, and West.
SEC East
1. South Carolina Gamecocks (7-1/11-1): Steve Spurrier has a strong team, and is definitely favored to win the division again. He hasn't decided on a new starting quarterback, but he is a master at preparing quarterbacks, so whoever gains the job will do well. He'll certainly be well-supported, with a strong cadre of receivers.
2. Georgia Bulldogs (5-3/8-4): The Bulldogs have to change their receiving corps, but they had enough talent last season that the change shouldn't adversely affect them. The passing game will certainly be the focus, as a porous offensive line makes their running game suspect. Their defense is good, which is the primary reason I think they'll improve by two victories and finish second in the division. Another reason is their strong special teams, which will yield at least a couple of extra touchdowns this season.
3. Florida Gators (4-4/7-5): Will Muschamp will preside over a new age in Gator Nation. Gone are the lax rules of Urban Meyer. Already Coach Muschamp has removed or placed on probation four key players from the team. Florida has plenty of talent, so the dismissals won't destroy their season, but it'll take time for the new players to adjust. Fortunately they have some easy games to start the season.
4. Tennessee Volunteers (3-5/7-5): Derek Dooley's second season won't be much easier than his first. He has 13 starters returning, but a weak defense will still make it hard for them to beat their conference opponents. They have an easy non-conference schedule, which might boost the confidence of the team enough to turn around a couple of games, but they still have a ways to go to return to the top of the division.
5. Vanderbilt Commodores (3-5/6-6): All of the major coaches are new, and a new system has been installed. That could indicate a rebuilding year, but Vandy has already suffered two pathetic seasons. With an easy non-conference schedule to gain comfort in the new system, I think Vandy will have a decent season.
6. Kentucky Wildcats (2-6/4-8): The Wildcats lost too much talent to have a winning season. Victories against a Sun Belt team and a FCS team won't perk them up much.
SEC West
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0/12-0): They lost some talented starters, but talent runs through their roster. They are still determining who the starting quarterback will be, but they have two strong candidates. Running game remains intact with Trent Richardson and they have plenty of talented receivers. More importantly, their defense is as solid as 2009, when they won the National Championship. They stand a good chance to do so again.
2. LSU Tigers (7-1/10-2): LSU is favored to compete for the the National Title by several national sources, but they have some tough road games, especially to Oregon to start the season and to Tuscaloosa to face a powerful Alabama team. Les Miles won a couple of games last year on trick plays, but that habit backfired against Auburn. He won't get away with such tricks this year, and the losses on their defense means their offense will have to work harder. LSU will push Alabama, but their November 5th meeting should go the Tide's way, sealing both teams' fates.
3. Auburn Tigers (4-4/8-4): Despite losses of key talent, the Tigers will still be a tough team, especially on defense. You will note the huge gap between the top two teams and the rest of the division. There is definitely an upper level, and Auburn has fallen from it this season.
4. Arkansas Razorbacks (4-4/7-5): The Razorbacks improved well with Ryan Mallet there, but Mallet is gone and his Alma Mater's fortunes will match his own in the NFL -- ups and downs. As well as Mallet, Arkansas lost their two best runners, one of whom was injured in the spring game and won't play. This fractures both parts of the offense, and the defense just isn't strong enough to beat many of their opponents.
5. Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-7/3-9): Both Sports Illustrated and Sporting News likes the Bulldogs this year, but they have too many holes. Both lines are weak, and a roster of weak receivers can't support their talented quarterback.
6. Ole Miss Rebels (0-8/1-11): Too many losses on both sides of the ball and a poor showing in the spring doesn't give much hope to the Rebels.
SEC Champion: Alabama Crimson Tide
ACC Atlantic
1. Florida State Seminoles (8-0/10-2): The Seminoles have the talent to run the table in the ACC, especially with EJ Manuel leading the offensive. They also have the advantage of facing their toughest conference opponents at home.
2. NC State Wolfpack (7-1/10-2): Here again I go against my comrades at Sports Illustrated and Sporting News. The Wolfpack has 13 returning starters and retain consistency at key positions. They have a new quarterback, but Mike Glennon looked good in clean-up duties last season, and played well in the spring. NC State will push Florida State.
3. Maryland Terrapins (5-3/7-5): The Terrapins are talented, but hampered by a difficult schedule. Also, Edsall has to adjust to the tougher defenses in the ACC. He won't find winning in this conference as easy as the Big East.
4. Clemson Tigers (3-5/5-7): They have a great offense, with eight returning starters. The best of those is running back Andre Ellington. Clemson can move the ball, but unfortunately they can't stop their opponents from moving it, either.
5. Boston College Eagles (2-6/3-9): The Eagles lost too much on offense to succeed this season. They have a decent defense, but they won't be able to stop some of the strong offenses in the conference.
6. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (1-7/2-10): They have a good offensive line, but the rest of the squad needs work. The defense suffered last season, so they switched systems. They also have two defensive coordinators, so how long will it take for a conflict to develop between the two, especially when Wake Forest starts losing badly?
ACC Coastal
1. Virginia Tech Hokies (8-0/12-0): An easy non-conference schedule is hardly a warm-up for ACC conference play, but it won't matter much. Although the Hokies lost their quarterback, best runner, and strong receiver, Frank Beamer has stocked this team with talent, so they don't lose a step.
2. North Carolina Tar Heels (4-4/7-5): The Tar Heels have plenty of holes to fill, but they have an advantage - most of the rest of the division is in tatters. The Tar Heels had major distractions last season, and still finished with a 7-5 record. This year they should do so again.
3. Miami Hurricanes (4-4/5-7): The Hurricanes are improving, but they aren't there yet. It doesn't help that they continue to shoot themselves in the foot. For the past two years, penalties and turnovers have been their bane. This season, they face the possibility of major NCAA penalties. The investigation, and its potential consequences, will be a major distraction, and the continuing loss of implicated players will maintain a state of chaos. The fact that they will finish third in the division is a sign of the weaknesses of the other teams.
4. Virginia Cavaliers (2-6/5-7): The Cavs will continue to improve under coach Mike London, but they still have a ways to go. The defense, especially, has too many holes to be truly successful.
5. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (2-6/5-7): It seems amazing that Tech won the conference just two seasons ago. Their offense is competent, but their defense stunk last season, and it doesn't look to improve much this season. That does not bode well for defensive coordinator Al Groh's job.
6. Duke Blue Devils (0-8/1-11): Another typical year for the ACC doormat. The defense doesn't look strong enough to stop most opponents, and their offense is missing some key pieces.
ACC Champion: Virginia Tech Hokies
Big East
1. West Virginia Mountaineers (7-0/11-1): All the pieces of coach Bill Stewart's offense will come together this year, even though he hired Dana Holgorsen as Offensive Coordinator. Holgorsen was instrumental in designing Oklahoma State's yard-churning offense, and he has similar talent in Morgantown.
2. South Florida Bulls (6-1/10-2): Their defense remains strong, and QB BJ Daniels should have a banner year. They'll push West Virginia, and probably score a New Years Day bowl.
3. Cincinnati Bearcats (4-3/7-5): The offense is sturdy but not spectacular, and the defense is improving. They aren't ready to return to double-digit winning seasons, but they are getting back on track.
4. Pittsburgh Panthers (4-3/6-6): Todd Graham inherits some talented players from former coach Dave Wannstedt, but a completely overhauled offensive and shifted defense will confuse the team enough. They should gather some conference wins towards the end of the season, when they get comfortable with the new systems, but it'll take until the middle of October.
5. Louisville Cardinals (3-4/5-7): They have a great ground game, but the passing game is very questionable. Their defense is good, but thin. Injuries or just exhaustion will cause them to lose games in the fourth quarter.
6. Syracuse Orange (2-5/3-9): The Orange's passing game is working, but that's about the only aspect that is working. A one-sided offense won't survive, and a porous defense will allow opponents to score against them easily.
7. UConn Huskies (1-6/3-9): The departure of Randy Edsall has left this team in disarray. New coach Paul Pasqualoni knows the conference, after 14 years at Syracuse, but he wasn't too successful during most of his tenure with the Orange, so he won't reverse the Huskies' slide this season.
8. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (0-7/2-10): The Knights have 17 starters returning. For most teams, that would be cause for celebration. Since Rutgers went 4-8 last year, the returners won't help much. Most of their returners are on offense, and their backfield is strong. A weak defense, though, makes them susceptible.
Independents
With the addition of BYU, the independents stretch across all three regions, but with two service academies in the east, I put them here.
1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-3): Brian Kelly's tenure at Notre Dame started slowly last season, but finished strongly. The players were catching on to his system at the end. Since most of them return, it looks good for the Irish to return to a bowl game.
2. BYU Cougars (8-4): Another team who started slowly last season, BYU won five of their last six games to become bowl eligible and beat UTEP in the New Mexico Bowl. Leaving the Mountain West Conference means the Cougars have to gain an at-large bid, which makes life tougher for them. Fortunately, the Cougars have so many players returning from that winning streak to make their chances look good.
3. Army Black Knights (6-6): A second non-losing season in a row? You read that right. Army has a powerful running game, with a strong offensive line to support it. While the defense has some holes, they have some fast players to chase receivers.
4. Navy Midshipmen (5-7): The Midshipmen have a decent offense, but the former kings of the run have a weak offensive line. Their defense is poor, too, so they will struggle this season.
Sun Belt
1. Florida International Golden Panthers (8-0/11-1): The Panthers benefit from a great schedule, where they face their toughest opponents at home. With their talent, they should sweep. Could a Sun Belt team crack the Top 25? Yes, and it should happen in mid-October.
2. Troy Trojans (7-1/7-5): Troy has a good team, but the loss of their top three receivers weakens the passing game. They'll catch on, but probably not until conference play. They'll be a strong force in the Sun Belt, losing only to Florida International.
3. North Texas Mean Green (5-3/5-7): New coach Dan McCarney brings his "take no prisoners" attitude to the Sun Belt. After suffering a poor season last season, the many returning starters will want to take revenge on some of their conference opponents, so they'll embrace this approach.
4. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (4-4/5-7): Nineteen returning starters brings hope to Warhawk fans, but their toughest opponents are played on the road. A rebuilt running game doesn't help them, either.
5. Florida Atlantic Owls (4-4/4-8): The Owls lost lots of talent in the off-season; only the running game remains intact. Florida Atlantic's new stadium will draw crowds, and they should win four of their five home games. Playing all of their non-conference games on the road is a tough schedule, especially when those teams include powerhouses like Michigan State, Auburn, and Florida.
6. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (2-6/3-9): The Hilltoppers are still looking for FBS success. They have a talented quarterback, but only mediocre receivers. They have a strong fullback, but a weak offensive line and iffy running backs. The defense needs work, too.
7. Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (2-6/2-10): This team has holes all over the squads. Their only victories will be home games against even weaker teams.
8. Arkansas State Red Wolves (1-7/2-10): The Red Wolves have a decent offense, but a terrible defense will put them behind their opponents in all of their games.
9. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (0-8/1-11): With a new coaching staff and few returning starters, there is little here to have confidence about.
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