Saturday, August 27, 2011

NCAA Football 2011 Preview #2 - Balance in the Middle

We move to the center of the country, which has become more interesting with the shrinking of the Big XII and the expansion of the Big Ten.  We now have a conference with ten teams, a conference with twelve teams, and those conferences are named "Big Ten" and "Big XII".  It makes sense until you realize the the conference with 12 teams is the Big Ten and the conference with ten teams is the Big XII.  If the Big Ten hadn't started the Big Ten Network, they wouldn't have had to hold onto the name.  Let's hope a marketing genius can determine a better name for the conference that still has "Big Ten" in it.

Big Ten Leaders
1.  Wisconsin Badgers (6-2/10-2):  The Badgers have a new quarterback, but that's not too important.  Their running game has traditionally been their strength, and they have another potent backfield this year.  With a powerful offensive line to poke holes and a stingy defense to keep opponents' scores low, the Badgers will be a powerhouse.
2.  Ohio State Buckeyes (5-3/8-4):  The loss of Coach Tressel and Terrel Pryor, as well as the five-game suspension of other key players, drops the Buckeyes from conference favorite to division also-ran.  Still, their roster depth and mighty defense keep them in contention, even if they won't win the division.
3.  Purdue Boilermakers (4-4/7-5):  They don't have a roster deep with talent.  If the Boilermakers can stay healthy, they have a chance to have a great year.  Unfortunately, this is the "black and blue" conference, so they'll lose too much by the end of the season.
4.  Penn State Nittany Lions (3-5/6-6):  Down year for the Lions.  They have a untried offense and a very tough schedule.  They might pull off some surprises, but JoePa is getting a little too predictable.
5.  Illinois Fighting Illini (3-5/5-7):  I'm happy I'm not going back for Homecoming this year, as I'm afraid my Alma Mater has a long year ahead of them.  They have a good passing game, but the departure of Michel Leshoure destroys an already spotty running game.  The defense needs work, too.
6.  Indiana Hoosiers (0-8/3-9):  A new coaching staff, new schemes, and lack of experience adds up to a long and tough season for Indiana.

Big Ten Legends
1.  Nebraska Cornhuskers (7-1/10-2):  The Cornhuskers enter the Big Ten conference with the strongest team in the division, and possibly the conference.  They have a strong offense.  The defense needs a little work, but it won't take much for it to come together.
2.  Michigan State Spartans (6-2/10-2):  It appears many national analysts think the Spartans tremendous season last year was a fluke.  They still think of Michigan State as a basketball school only.  They're wrong, though.  The Spartans returned many players from last season's conference contender, and the offense remains dangerous.  The defense lost a bit from last season, and that bodes ill for a team that lost a couple of games late in the fourth quarter, but I think they'll get everything coordinated midway through the season.
3.  Iowa Hawkeyes (6-2/10-2):  Always a dangerous threat, the Hawkeyes have to replace some key players this season.  A favorable schedule gives them time to work their replacements into the scheme.
4.  Northwestern Wildcats (5-3/9-3):  Another dangerous offense.  Their defense needs a bit of work, and they don't quite have the tools of other schools.  Northwestern will play hard, but they'll fall short against strong offenses.
5.  Michigan Wolverines (1-7/3-9):  If new coach Brady Hoke is hoping to have a better first season at Michigan than his predecessor, he'll be disappointed.  New offensive coordinator Al Borges is installing a pro system, but quarterback Denard Robinson isn't ready for that.  I'm not sure some of his receivers are, either.
6.  Minnesota Golden Gophers (0-8/2-10):  Not much to say here.  As in most years, the Gophers find themselves at the bottom.

Big Ten Champion (in a defensive battle):  Wisconsin Badgers

Big XII
1.  Oklahoma Sooners (8-1/11-1):  This team is strong everywhere.  They have a bit of a problem with roster depth, so if they can stay fresh into December, they will be a force.
2.  Texas A&M Aggies (8-1/11-1):  Plenty of returning starters and a favorable schedule that gives them plenty of home games gives the Aggies their best chance in years to win the conference.
3.  Oklahoma State Cowboys (8-1/11-1):  Their offense remains powerful, and their defense is pretty good, too.  If they can remain consistent, they might win the conference.
4.  Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-5/6-6):  This is Tech, so we know they have a great offense.  Their defense is weak, though, so they'll get overrun by teams with strong offenses.
5.  Missouri Tigers (4-5/6-6):  They have to break in a new quarterback, but at least he has a good backfield supporting him.  There are some questions about the offensive line, though.  Worse, the defense has several holes, which makes it hard in a conference with several strong offenses.
6.  Texas Longhorns (3-6/4-8):  Another down year for one of the top teams in the conference just a few years ago.  This team needs lots of work.
7.  Kansas State Wildcats (3-6/5-7):  The Wildcats lost their best runner and have a restructured defense.  Even their usual easy non-conference schedule won't help them this year.
8.  Baylor Bears (2-7/4-8):  They have good players on this team, but they seem to run out of steam before the end of the game.  If they are better conditioned this season, they might win as many games (or more) as Tech and Missouri, but I doubt it.
9.  Iowa State Cyclones (1-8/2-10):  The team has some talent, but most of their key positions are filled with players with limited experience.  With a year under their belt, this team might be competitive -- next year.
10.  Kansas Jayhawks (0-9/1-11):  The Jayhawks will continue to fall.  They have plenty of returning starters, but the team lacks speed and the defense seems confused.  Playing against the high-speed offenses prevalent in this conference, that won't work.

Conference USA East
1.  Southern Mississippi Golden Eages (6-2/10-2):  This team has a strong offense, but a new defensive scheme will take some time to learn.
2.  Central Florida Knights (5-3/6-6):  The Knights are a decent, but a tough non-conference schedule could weaken their squad, both by demoralizing them and by injuring them.
3.  East Carolina Pirates (4-4/4-8):  A faster defense than last year should help slow the rate of points scored against them, but if they can't improve their offense, it won't help much.
4.  Marshall Thundering Herd (3-5/3-9):  The youngest team in the conference in 2010 gained some experience, but it won't be enough to push them to the upper half of the division.
5.  UAB Blazers (1-7/2-9):  The Blazers have a strong offense, but a weak defense will keep that offense on the field a long time.  I don't think they'll last to the fourth quarter against many of their opponents.
6.  Memphis Tigers (1-7/2-9):  This team needs work on both sides of the ball.

Conference USA West
1.  Houston Cougars (7-1/10-2):  The return of QB Case Keenum boosts the team's outlook, and keeps opposing defenses on their toes.
2.  Tulsa Golden Hurricane (5-3/6-6):  Tulsa has plenty of return starters, especially on offense.  Unfortunately their defense needs work, and a new system will slow their development.
3.  SMU Mustangs (4-4/6-6):  The Mustangs return many of last year's starters, but a schedule filled with tough road games will prevent them from gaining much momentum.
4.  Rice Owls (4-4/4-8):  Rice changes their offensive scheme yet again, confusing players who have been learning a new system every year.  A thin receiving corps also makes their offense susceptible to injuries.
5.  Tulane Green Wave (2-6/3-9):  This team has a good running game, but that's about all they have going for them.
6.  UTEP Miners (0-8/2-10):  With only two starters from 2010 returning, this team in a classic example of a rebuilding project.

Conference USA Champion:  Houston Cougars

MAC East
1.  Miami Ohio Redhawks (7-1/9-3):  The new coaching staff won't have to change much, with so many returning starters.  This defense needs some tweaking, but it's already better than most teams in the division.
2.  Ohio Bobcats (6-2/9-3):  The Bobcats have a strong running game.  They need it, as their passing game is weak.  A rebuilt defensive line and strong secondary makes it hard to score against them.
3.  Temple Owls (5-3/7-5):  The defense lost some talent, but I'm even sure new coach Steve Addazio will notice.  Addazio focuses on offense.  He's going to want a powerful offense.  That means Temple needs to improve the performance of whoever wins the quarterback position.
4.  Akron Zips (4-4/5-7):  They have plenty of returning starters, but since last season's team went 1-11, you wonder how much that experience helps them.  It gave them exposure to how some of the other teams play, and that definitely could help.
5.  Buffalo Bulls (3-5/4-8):  Ther Bulls have a strong running game, but the rest of their squads are suspect.  Their defense will keep them in games with weaker teams, but they won't be able to hold out against stronger teams.
6.  Kent State Golden Flashes (2-6/4-8):  The offense has been completely overhauled.  The defense didn't need as much work, but they have holes at certain key positions, so they may want to do some modification on that squad as well.
7.  Bowling Green Falcons (0-8/2-10):  They can't run, they can't stop the run, and their new quarterback isn't consistent in passing.  This is not a recipe for success.

MAC West
1.  Toledo Rockets (8-0/10-2):  Explosive Eric Page gives them the edge in special teams.  A strong running and passing game keeps their offense moving.  They also have the strongest defense in the conference.  If they don't run the table in the MAC, something is strange.
2.  Northern Illinois Huskies (7-1/10-2):  This team has tremendous talent.  If the new coaching staff doesn't feel the need to tweak anything, they can give Toledo a run for the division title.
3.  Western Michigan Broncos (5-3/9-3):  Good defense, but their two best pass rushers left.  Without them, they have limited pressure on opposing quarterbacks.  Give someone that much time, they'll find a receiver.
4.  Eastern Michigan Eagles (2-6/4-8):  This team has the worst defense in the conference.  A strong running game might help them, but this will be a tough season.  A great slate of non-conference opponents helps improve their record.
5.  Central Michigan Chippewas (1-7/2-10):  This team has a poor offense, and practically no running game.  Their defense lost their best players.  That means another long season for Chippewas fans.
6.  Ball State Cardinals (1-7/1-11):  The defense has some talent, but they are inconsistent.  New coach Pete Lembo likes to pass, but the passing game is anemic.

MAC Champion:  Toledo Rockets

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