I begin my first analysis of conference and division title races, as there are some crucial games this week that can determine who plays for conference titles. Those analyses are always difficult, as you have to consider the possibility of upsets. God knows that had to be considered this past week, as there were several upsets, many which affected Top 25 teams. The Big Ten saw two of those, as both Michigan and Nebraska fell. The Wolverines lost to Iowa, who at least have a reasonable shot for their division title. Nebraska lost to Northwestern, who is basically out of contention for the Legends division title. They beat Nebraska in a similar fashion to the way Wisconsin beat them - overwhelming them with offense. That seems counter-intuitive, as that's the way many Big XII teams play. We figured the tougher Big Ten defenses would be the Cornhuskers' undoing, yet they've been able to find ways to move the ball.
The eastern part of the country featured most of the other upsets. Louisville continued to battle for the Big East title by beating West Virginia, and UConn played spoiler to Syracuse, knocking them from a shot at the title. The ACC wasn't immune to upsets, either, as NC State beat their in-state rival and killing whatever remote chances the Tar Heels might have had for a shot at the title.
The Pac-12 saw the other upset, as UCLA beat Arizona State to take a tiebreaker lead over them in the South division. With USC on probation, it doesn't matter whether the Bruins beat their hated rivals or not. If they win out, or at least match Arizona State's remaining conference record, the first Pac-12 South title goes to UCLA.
This week's Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Stanford Cardinal (9-0) [1] : As expected, Oregon State gave the Cardinal some problems, but Stanford remains unbeaten and on top
2. LSU Tigers (9-0) [3] : LSU won the defensive battle that saw NO touchdowns scored by either team
3. Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-0) [4] : The Cowboys won the shoot-out against Kansas State and placed themselves in good position to play in the BCS National Championship Game, provided they can get past Oklahoma
4. Boise State Broncos (8-0) [5]
5. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-1) [2] : They may have lost to LSU, but they're still the best one-loss team in the country
6. Oklahoma Sooners (9-1) [6] : And here's the 2nd best one-loss team in the country
7. Houston Cougars (9-0) [7]
8. Oregon Ducks (8-1) [8]
9. Wisconsin Badgers (7-2) [9] : A strong victory seals the title of best two-loss team in the country
10. Arkansas Razorbacks (8-1) [14] : They got past Stever Spurrier and the Gamecocks, but they still have tough games ahead
11. Clemson Tigers (8-1) [11]
12. Virginia Tech Hokies (8-1) [12]
13. Michigan Wolverines (7-2) [9] : A tough loss to Iowa sends them to Champaign
14. Cincinnati Bearcats (7-1) [16]
15. South Carolina Gamecocks (7-2) [10] : Couldn't find a rhythm against Arkansas
16. Michigan State Spartans (7-2) [19] : The losses by Michigan and Nebraska put them back atop the Legends division
17. TCU Horned Frogs (7-2) [17]
18. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-2) [18]
19. Nebraska Cornhuskers (8-2) [13]
20. USC Trojans (7-2) [20]
21. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (8-1) [NR] : The leader in the OTHER division of Conference USA gains a foothold in the Top 25
22. Texas Longhorns (6-2) [NR]
23. Penn State Nittany Lions (8-1) [23]
24. Kansas State Wildcats (7-2) [22] : Wouldn't go away against the Cowboys
25. Georgia Bulldogs (7-2) [NR] : The Dawgs now lead the SEC East
Dropped off: West Virginia Mountaineers [#21], Arizona State Sun Devils [#24], Texas A&M Aggies [#25]
Top contenders: Florida State Seminoles (6-3), Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-3), Ohio State Buckeyes (6-3), Iowa Hawkeyes (6-3), Ohio Bobcats (6-3), Arkansas State Warhawks (7-2), Florida Gators (5-4)
Conference races
ACC Atlantic: unbeaten Clemson rules this division. All they need to do is beat Wake Forest this week and they have the division title
ACC Coastal: Virginia Tech leads this one, but they still must face both Georgia Tech and Virginia, the two teams tied for second place. Miami has a remote chance.
Big XII: Unbeaten Oklahoma State holds the lead, but they still must face Oklahoma on Dec 3rd. It may take until that week to determine a champ, as neither is likely to lose again (Oklahoma facing Baylor on Nov 19th is the only opponent with less than four conference losses). Kansas State and Texas have outside chances, but since both Oklahoma and the Cowboys hold tiebreakers over them, their chances are small.
Big East: Cincy holds the lead, and the tiebreaker over runner-up Louisville. The Cardinals better control their destiny, though, as they have faced (and beaten) both West Virginia and Rutgers, the only other teams with a reasonable chance at the title. Cincy still needs to face both of them.
Big Ten Legends: Michigan State leads this division, and only Iowa remains as a tough challenge. They win this week, and they are likely to win the division. Michigan, Nebraska, and Iowa each have two conference losses, so an Iowa upset puts THEM in the driver's seat, with wins over Michigan and the Spartans and a battle against Nebraska to close the season.
Big Ten Leaders: Penn State leads the division by two games, but they must still play both Ohio State and Wisconsin, who are tied for second place. They also face Nebraska this week. That's three tough games remaining. Wisconsin actually has the better schedule (Minnesota and Illinois before closing by hosting Penn State), so I like their chances to win. Ohio State still has Penn State and arch-rival Michigan.
Conference USA East: Southern Miss leads and has beaten their toughest opposition. Two of their three remaining games are against the worst teams in the division. A win this week basically assures them the title.
Conference USA West: Both Houston and Tulsa are unbeaten in division, and they close the season against each other. Both have relatively easy games until then, so the Nov 26th matchup will likely determine the winner.
MAC East: Ohio leads, and has two fairly easy contests until the face co-leader Miami Ohio on Nov 22nd. The Redhawks need to get past Temple this week to remain co-leader.
MAC West: Northern Illinois leads, and holds the tiebreaker over co-leading Toledo. Both face almost the same teams, so the Huskies look likely to take this.
Mountain West: Although Wyoming has lost only one conference game, this contest will basically be decided by the winner of this week's TCU - Boise State contest.
Pac-12 North: If Stanford beats Oregon this week, they clinch the title. Oregon needs to beat Stanford and then one of either USC and arch-rival Oregon State.
Pac-12 South: USC is ineligible for the title, so the tiebreaker goes to UCLA. The Bruins face conference newcomers Utah (2-4 conference record) and Colorado before closing at USC, so they stand a good chance to take the title. The Trojans can play spoiler if Arizona State wins out.
SEC East: Division leader Georgia and runner-up South Carolina are the only ones who can win it at this point. Georgia lost to the Gamecocks, so South Carolina has a tiebreaker to use, if needed. The Gamecocks have only one conference game remaining, this week against Florida. Georgia has Auburn and Kentucky remaining. The Wildcats won't be much of a challenge, but if Auburn upsets them this week and South Carolina wins, this division belongs to South Carolina.
SEC West: LSU leads and has beaten both Alabama and Auburn. If they beat Ole Miss next week, the season ender against Arkansas could decide the division. LSU could already win it if Mississippi State upsets the Razorbacks on Nov 19th.
Sun Belt: This week's contest between Arkansas State and Louisiana-Lafayette decides the title
WAC: Nevada leads, but still has four conference games remaining. This conference has too many candidates still to discuss yet.
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