NFL 2011 Week 13 picks

Top Ten teams
1.  Green Bay Packers (11-0) : They are looking more and more unbeatable
2.  New Orleans Saints (8-3) : Potent offense that nobody can stop
3.  Houston Texans (8-3) : Best defense in the AFC, and the offense still moves under Matt Leinhart
4.  San Francisco 49ers (9-2) : Stumbled against Baltimore, but still dangerous as owners of the stingiest defnese in the league
5.  New England Patriots (8-3) : Best offense in the AFC and looking like the dangerous Patriots that won three Super Bowls in four years
6.  Baltimore Ravens (8-3) : With both offense and defense clicking, this is a tough team to beat
7.  Detroit Lions (7-4) : A three-game losing streak is knocking the luster off this team, and they have some tough opponents remaining
8.  Chicago Bears (7-4) : Bad showing for Hanie's premiere, but he should get better.  Still nearly won the game.  With a favorable schedule ahead, the Bears still look playoff bound
9.  Dallas Cowboys (7-4) : If they can avoid their traditional December slide, they should easily win the NFC East
10. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3) : Big Ben is having a good year, and the defense remains stiff

Divisional rankings
1.  NFC North : If Detroit can slow their skid, this division can remain on top.  Both the Bears and Lions are showing fragility, but we'll see if it lasts.
2.  AFC North : They may lack a Top Five team, but with three teams among the top twelve, and the Browns the second-best division cellar (behind Washington), this is a tough division from top to bottom.
3.  AFC East : The Dolphins are the only team with a negative difference between points scored and points allowed, and it's shrinking.  Only the Patriots are outstanding, but each team is still a threat to win any week, especially since Buffalo's offense finally woke up last week.
4.  NFC East : Nobody is dominant, but each team has strengths.  Philly needs to play better in the fourth quarter and Washington needs consistency, but they are a threat each week.
5.  NFC South : Atlanta's coming back and Carolina is winning some games, so this division looks better.
6.  AFC South : Tennessee is improving, and Houston hasn't fallen yet with Leinhart under center, so there is still some hope for this division.
7.  NFC West : San Francisco basically won the division this week, and they LOST their game!  No other team is worth paying any attention to, although Seattle can sometimes generate a good game.
8.  AFC West : No team has a positive point differential.  Oakland beat a Hanie-led Bears, but they aren't impressive.

Thursday night:
Philadelphia Eagles (4-7) at Seattle Seahawks (4-7) : Seattle can get up for certain games, and this might be one of those, but I'll pick the team with more talent, and that's Philly.  EAGLES, 23-17

Sunday early games:
Atlanta Falcons (7-4) at Houston Texans (8-3) : The rejuvenated Matt Ryan offense faces the toughest defense in the league.  This will be a real battle!  The Falcons are hot right now, and you have to wonder how much Matt Leinhart can really accomplish.  If the Texans get behind, they will lose.  Even if they lead in the fourth, if they lead by less than a score, Matty Ice could pull this one out.  I like the upset here.  FALCONS, 24-23

Carolina Panthers (3-8) at Tampa Bay Bucs (3-8) : The Panthers are looking good, while the Bucs are collapsing.  The only thing hurting Carolina is their porous offense, but I don't think the Bucs will be able to exploit that well enough.  PANTHERS, 26-20

Cincinnati Bengals (7-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3) : The Steelers were swept by Baltimore; they want to sweep Cincy.  That won't be an easy task, especially with the way Andy Dalton is leading this offense, but I'll give them a chance.  Cincy's defense has sputtered the last couple of weeks, and the way Big Ben and Rashad Mendenhall are playing, that gives Pitt the edge.  STEELERS, 23-20

Denver Broncos (6-5) at Minnesota Vikings (2-9) : Tebow's stats aren't good, but his spirit has inspired the team.  The Vikings are already defeated emotionally, so becoming defeated on the field is a short trip.  BRONCOS, 24-20

Indianapolis Colts (0-11) at New England Patriots (8-3) : This one won't be pretty.  PATS, 34-13

Kansas City Chiefs (4-7) at Chicago Bears (7-4) : I think Hanie will reduce his interceptions, and the stiff defense will frustrate KC.  Hanie will gain his first win as a Bear, and that might help boost his confidence.  BEARS, 24-13

New York Jets (6-5) at Washington Redskins (4-7) : Washington is in disarray, which is precisely the way the Jets like their opponents.  Their defense hasn't been confusing teams much, but they can exploit an already confused team.  JETS, 24-13

Oakland Raiders (7-4) at Miami Dolphins (3-8) : Miami is improving, but the Raiders proved that they can still shake up offenses.  They will frustrate young Matt Moore, although he is improving.  It may not be as easy a win as Oakland would hope.  Miami will keep it close enough that the Raiders will STILL have a negative point differential, despite a 67% win percentage.  RAIDERS, 23-19

Tennessee Titans (6-5) at Buffalo Bills (5-6) : The Bills offense showed flashes of the brilliance demonstrated earlier in the season, but can they sustain it?  The Titans are definitely playing well.  Matt Hasselbeck has found some new targets and they've found a new premier runner, so the Titans can move the ball.  If the Bills offense doesn't fully come back to early season form, I don't think they can win.  TITANS, 26-23

Sunday late games:
Baltimore Ravens (8-3) at Cleveland Browns (4-7) : The "old Browns" have held the upper hand against the new Browns since Cleveland rejoined the league, and that will continue.  There are grumblings that Colt McCoy will be out of Cleveland come the off-season.  RAVENS, 24-16

Dallas Cowboys (7-4) at Arizona Cardinals (4-7) : The Cowboys are winning (four in a row), but they've had weak opponents.  They get another one.  If they can prevent their typical December collapse, they should win this one.  COWBOYS, 24-17

Green Bay Packers (11-0) at New York Giants (6-5) : It's interesting how one game can change national opinion.  Last week, many of the national analysts were saying the most likely team to beat Green Bay and stop their unbeaten season would be the Giants.  After getting slaughtered by New Orleans, another powerful offense, the Giants are now two touchdown underdogs.  I won't go that far, but they won't stop the Pack.  PACK, 31-20

St Louis Rams (2-9) at San Francisco 49ers (9-2) : The 49ers have a long week to stew and obsess over their loss to Baltimore.  If they don't get so upset that they make stupid penalties, they ought to redeem themselves in this game.  49ERS, 24-10

Sunday night:
Detroit Lions (7-4) at New Orleans Saints (8-3) : The Lions defense isn't as stout as they were earlier in the season, and they face the most dangerous offense in the league behind Green Bay.  We saw what Green Bay did in Detroit, and New Orleans are 5-1 at home.  Make that 6-1.  SAINTS, 34-26

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL -- San Diego Chargers (4-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-8) : The Jags might have had a chance to win this game, but the front office sabotaged that by firing Jack Del Rio.  We know the interim coach will come from the Jags staff, so there is some consistency, but this will affect the team.  CHARGERS, 24-16