NFL 2011 Week 11 picks

Top Ten teams
1.  Green Bay Packers (9-0) : Still unbeaten, and clobbering opponents
2.  San Francisco 49ers (8-1) : Best defense in the league, and the offense is looking good, too.  Frank Gore is one of the most productive runners in the league right now
3.  Houston Texans (7-3) : Best team in the AFC, but that may not last with Matt Schaub injured and underachieving Matt Leinhart taking over QB duties
4.  New Orleans Saints (7-3) : Offensive output just one point shy of Green Bay, this is a dangerous team to opposing defenses
5.  Detroit Lions (6-3) : They're starting to fall, as they are showing weaknesses
6.  New England Patriots (6-3) : Despite some miscues, they are still dangerous
7.  Baltimore Ravens (6-3) : They've had two ridiculous losses, but never count them out
8.  Chicago Bears (6-3) : After two colossal wins, the Bears are a force!  Their offense line is the best in years, and that gives Cutler time to work his magic
9.  Cincinnati Bengals (6-3) : Andy Dalton has the offense moving, and the defense compares with Baltimore's
10 (tie). Dallas Cowboys (5-4) : Tony Romo has the offense moving, but we're the time of the season when the Cowboys melt down
10 (tie). Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3) : The Steelers have trouble winning in their division, but they are 6-1 outside

Division rankings
1.  NFC North : Now with three teams in the Top Ten, if Detroit can regain their power, this division might produce half of the NFC playoff teams.
2.  AFC North : They'd be better if Baltimore wouldn't give away easy games, but this is still a frightening division, especially on defense.
3.  AFC East : Miami is improving, and Buffalo still has talent.  If the Bills can prevent an outright freefall, this division will be interesting.  I don't think they can prevent the AFC North providing both wildcard teams, though.
4.  NFC East : Philly is spiralling downwards, and an injured Michael Vick might destroy them.  Rex is back to being Rex, so Washington is faltering.  If Dallas can hold off their usual late season collapse, this division might still be viable for a couple more weeks.  They are on their way down, though.
5.  NFC South : New Orleans is carrying this division, but Atlanta has a chance to rebound.
6.  AFC South : With Houston likely to fall with Leinhart under center, could Tennessee become the frontrunner?
7.  NFC West : Two wins and San Fran wins this division.  Seattle is capable of surprising opponents, but basically this division is toothless outside of the Bay City.
8.  AFC West : There isn't a single team with a positive point differential in this division.  It's the closest, as only one game separates first place from fourth place, but nobody outside of this division really fears these teams.

Thursday night game:
New York Jets (5-4) at Denver Broncos (4-5) : Tim Tebow's numbers stink, but he motivates the team.  Denver could surprise, but I'll still pick the Jets.  A Rex Ryan-led team is dangerous, no matter how tricky their opponent.  JETS, 27-21

Sunday early games:
Buffalo Bills (5-4) at Miami Dolphins (2-7) : The Bills have been in freefall the past two weeks, and the Dolphins have been on an upswing.  Matt Moore seems to have found his footing, and he's leading the offense well.  I still believe the Bills can right themselves.  If they lose here, though, it might be all over for them.  BILLS, 27-21

Carolina Panthers (2-7) at Detroit Lions (6-3) : Detroit has faltered against stout defenses, but Carolina's is far from that.  Cam Newton has the offense working, but the Panthers get outscored because they can't stop opponents.  It'll happen again.  LIONS, 30-20

Cincinnati Bengals (6-3) at Baltimore Ravens (6-3) : Here's an interesting battle!  These two teams are very evenly matched.  This one will likely come down to the final minutes, pehaps the final seconds.  Baltimore's ground game gives them a better chance to control the ball late, so I'll go with them.  RAVENS, 19-16

Dallas Cowboys (5-4) at Washington Redskins (3-6) : Rex is back to throwing the ball to the other team, and John Beck doesn't release quickly enough.  If Romo and the offense doesn't self-destruct, they should win here.  COWBOYS, 27-20

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6) at Cleveland Browns (3-6) : Boy, this game could really go either way.  Blaine Gabbert is coming on for the Jags, and Maurice Jones-Drew is returning to form.  The Browns have some weapons, too, but I like what Jacksonville can do.  JAGS, 17-13

Oakland Raiders (5-4) at Minnesota Vikings (2-7) : Christian Ponder is still learning, and the Raiders love to attack a weak opponent.  RAIDERS, 23-17

Tampa Bay Bucs (3-6) at Green Bay Packers (9-0) : The 2011 edition of the Battle of the Bays will be pretty one-sided, as the Pack are moving the ball quite well while Josh Freeman and the Bucs are inconsistent and out of rhythm.  PACK, 35-17

Sunday late games:
Arizona Cardinals (3-6) at San Francisco 49ers (8-1) : The stiff 49ers defense will frustrate John Skelton, while the offense will continue to get better.  49ERS, 24-13

San Diego Chargers (4-5) at Chicago Bears (6-3) : Philip Rivers and the Chargers offense have been struggling of late.  Worse, they play a coordinated passing attack, which is exactly the type of offense the Bears defense breaks up.  The Bears are poised to continue their streak of poweful victories, securing themselves a spot among the top teams in the league.  BEARS, 27-17

Seattle Seahawks (3-6) at St Louis Rams (2-7) : The Rams are winners to two in a row, but Seattle tends to get "up" for important games.  Nothing is more important than a divisional battle.  The Seahawks will take this one.  SEAHAWKS, 20-16

Tennessee Titans (5-4) at Atlanta Falcons (5-4) : Despite some woes, the Falcons still have lots of talent.  Most of it is on the offensive side of things, but the Titans offense has sputtered, so all the Falcons have to do is outscore them.  They are certainly capable of that.  FALCONS, 24-20

Sunday night:
Philadelphia Eagles (3-6) at New York Giants (6-3) : Without Vick, how effective will the Eagles' offense be?  Vince Young has not been very impressive in his stints replacing Vick, and he doesn't move the way Vick does.  The offense will need to be revamped, which I don't think they'll have enough time to do before this game.  Eli and the Giants offense are moving quite well, which makes things worse.  At least the Eagles won't have a fourth quarter lead to blow -- they'll already be behind.  GIANTS, 27-16

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL -- Kansas City Chiefs (4-5) at New England Patriots (6-3) : The Pats haven't been stellar recently, but they are still a dangerous team.  Dismissing Albert Haynesworth and soliciting trades for Ochocinco eliminates the discipline problems and distractions that might be affecting team unity, and this team is dangerous when they are united.  PATS, 24-16