NCAA 2011 Week 11 picks

It's November, and we're facing the home stretch for many teams.  Some division and conference leads (even a couple of titles!) are on the line this week, so let's get started...

Tuesday, Nov 8
Northern Illinois Huskies at Bowling Green Falcons:  A Huskies win helps solidify their lead in the MAC West.  NORTHERN ILLINOIS

Western Michigan Broncos at Toledo Rockets:  Toledo needs to win to maintain pace against Northern Illinois.  The Broncos won't make it easy, but I think Toledo will prevail.  TOLEDO

Wed Nov 9
Miami Ohio Redhawks at Temple Owls:  This is basically the battle for second place in the MAC East.  Both teams will battle hard.  I think the Owls have a better ball control offense, and that could become crucial late in a close game.  TEMPLE

Thurs Nov 10
Ohio Bobcats at Central Michigan Chippewas:  A Bobcats win further solidifies their MAC East lead, especially if Temple wins on Tuesday.  OHIO

#12 Virginia Tech Hokies at #18 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets:  A Hokies win gives them a strong foothold on the ACC Coastal lead.  Virginia is rooting for Georgia Tech, as the Cavs already beat them.  These teams will battle hard, but I like the talent on the Hokies squad just a bit more.  This will be a tough road game, though, so watch for an upset.  VIRGINIA TECH

#7 Houston Cougars at Tulane Green Wave:  Tulane is pitiful this year, so this is an easy win to continue propelling Houston to the Conference USA championship game.  HOUSTON

Friday Nov 11
South Florida Bulls at Syracuse Orange:  Neither team can win the Big East, but this is a pride game for the Bulls, who are yet to win a conference game.  I'm afraid they'll have to keep looking.  SYRACUSE

Top 25
#8 Oregon Ducks at #1 Stanford Cardinal:  Runner-up for Game of the Week, this game essentially determines the winner of the Pac-12 North.  Oregon had a week off to prepare for this game, but the Beavers may have stuck it to their in-state rivals.  By challenging Stanford this week, they will review and revise their game plan, setting up a tougher approach against the Ducks.  STANFORD

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at #2 LSU Tigers:  The Tigers get a easy battle after the defensive tug-of-war last week.  This game might actually hurt them in the BCS computer rankings.  Can Stanford or Oklahoma State grab the BCS #1 spot?  LSU

#3 Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas Tech Red Raiders:  Tech can play tough, but the Cowboys offense is too strong.  Even if Tech gets their offense rolling like it has in previous seasons, they won't keep pace with the Cowboys.  OKLAHOMA STATE

#5 Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs:  The Tide want a strong performance to wash away the sting of the close loss to LSU.  The Bulldogs are a good team this season, but they will struggle against the defensive colossus of the Tide.  ALABAMA

#9 Wisconsin Badgers at Minnesota Golden Gophers:  The Gophers have already engineered one conference upset this year; I think that's their limit.  WISCONSIN

Tennessee Volunteers at #10 Arkansas Razorbacks:  I don't think the Razorbacks will experience a letdown after their strong defeat of South Carolina.  ARKANSAS

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at #11 Clemson Tigers: Wake is the only team who can up-seat Clemson for the division title.  I don't see them doing it.  CLEMSON

#13 Michigan Wolverines at Illinois Fighting Illini:  The Wolverines come in angry after a close loss to the Hawkeyes.  They want a win to get back into the running for the Legends division title.  Honestly, I don't think they'll do it.  Illinois had a bye week to get healthy and prepare for this game, their defense is fierce, and they are at home.  Illinois has played much better at home this season than on the road. They sent this game to three overtimes last year, and that was in the Big House. I pick an upset against their hated rivals to return Illinois to their winning ways.  ILLINOIS

West Virginia Mountaineers at #14 Cincinnati Bearcats: It hasn't been the prettiest conference season for the Mountaineers, and it gets rougher.  Cincy hasnt' been overly dominant against most of their opponents, but they are tenacious scrappers.  The Mountaineers are too used to having things go easy in the Big East - I don't think they know what went wrong against Louisville.  That confusion will carry over to this game.  CINCY

Florida Gators at #15 South Carolina Gamecocks:  The Gamecocks want to bounce back from their loss to Arkansas, and Steve Spurrier wants to beat his old school.  More importantly, a win here helps them in the divisional race, as this is their last SEC game (games against the Citadel and Clemson remain).  SOUTH CAROLINA

#16 Michigan State Spartans at Iowa Hawkeyes:  Iowa upset the Wolverines, and they host the other Michigan team.  I'm not sure they have two consecutive upsets in them, especially since these teams are composed differently.  Michigan focusses on offense, especially the spread.  Michigan State is more defensively oriented; their offense is run-based.  The Hawkeyes are susceptible to a tough defense, which should swing the game in favor of the Spartans.  MICHIGAN STATE

#19 Nebraska Cornhuskers at #23 Penn State Nittany Lions:  Penn State does not have the offense to outscore the Cornhuskers, but they have a tough defense.  This is the type of defense which should be a challenge to the 'Huskers.  They got past Ohio State and Michigan State, but the Buckeyes were reeling then and the Spartans were a bit over-confident.  Penn State knows what's at stake, and they don't get complacent.  PENN STATE

Washington Huskies at #20 USC Trojans:  The Huskies still have a mathematical chance for the North division, but it's basically a pipe dream.  That won't stop them from playing for a good bowl game.  The Trojans have nothing to play for except pride and draft position, and that's propelled them so far this season.  It's always tough to play the Trojans in the Colisseum, and that is true this season as well.  USC

Central Florida Golden Knights at #21 Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles:  It's a flood of gold this week! Southern Miss needs this victory, as Marshall beat them and hold a tiebreaker over them.  The Eagles are proving tough to beat after a slow start in the conference, and Central Florida has shown too many holes to predict an upset.  SOUTHERN MISS

#22 Texas Longhorns at Missouri Tigers: Texas may have two losses, but the Big XII is the most powerful conference this year.  The Longhorns would be the conference leader in most other conferences, so don't let their record fool you.  TEXAS

Texas A&M Aggies at #24 Kansas State Wildcats:  The Wildcats offense came alive last week.  If they don't fall back, they should win this game fairly easily.  However, the Aggies are a dangerous team, despite three losses, so this will be a struggle.  The Wildcats might pull it out, but I wouldn't be surprised by an Aggies win.  KANSAS STATE

Auburn Tigers at #25 Georgia Bulldogs:  South Carolina fans find themselves rooting for Auburn this week, as the Bulldogs put their division-leading record on the line.  Auburn had an extra week to prepare for this game, which makes them dangerous.  I've already picked two upsets this week, but I guess I haven't used up my quota.  AUBURN

GAME OF THE WEEK:  #17 TCU Horned Frogs at #4 Boise State Broncos:  The Mountain West title is on the line here.  TCU is a strong team, but Boise has consistently knocked down opponents this season.  Granted, TCU is the toughest opponent they've faced, but I still like their chances to win this.  BOISE STATE

Best of the Rest
Miami Hurricanes at Florida State Seminoles:  This is an intense rivalry game that could go either way, but the Seminoles are playing well.  Miami knows a loss takes them out of contention for the division, but the situation is more important for Florida State.  If Wake loses to Clemson, Florida State can take sole possession of second place in the division.  If Wake upsets Clemson, will that deflate Florida State, since they have lost to both teams and a three-way tie for the division hurts them?  I think the coaching staff will ensure the players do not have updates from that game so that they can focus on this one.  FLORIDA STATE

Baylor Bears at Kansas Jayhawks:  Baylor should roll over the struggling Jayhawks.  BAYLOR

Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns at Arkansas State Red Wolves:  The winner of this game captures the Sun Belt title.  Both have been tough competitors this season, but the Red Wolves have been more impressive.  Given that this is a home game for them, I definitely have to favor them.  ARKANSAS STATE

Maryland Terrapins at Notre Dame Fighting Irish:  No matter what uniform the 'Terps wear, the Irish should overpower them.  NOTRE DAME