There were plenty of upsets last week, both pure upsets and upsets by margins (which means games that should have been close were widely one-sided). "Pure" upsets saw Temple's first Big East conference victory since they left the conference, the first loss this season by Florida State (who was beaten by NC State), and Cal's first FBS victory after playing three previous opponents tough. The "marginal" upsets featured Arkansas' first SEC victory, a wipeout of Auburn. The SEC had a second marginal upset, as the featured game of Georgia against South Carolina was a complete destruction of Georgia, jeopardizing their National Championship hopes.
The Big XII had a couple of marginal upsets as well, and both involved Top 25 teams who lost. Iowa State, who had skulking outside the Top 25 all season, knocked off TCU in a huge 14-point victory. Oklahoma, who had not been winning impressively, did that this week, but outplaying Texas Tech and winning by 21 points. Surprisingly, that still wasn't enough to put them into the Top 25, but they are now much closer.
The Big Ten was the site of a marginal upset, as the two remaining Top 25 teams (after Michigan State) clashed and proved that Ohio State is the best Big Ten team this season by far. The Buckeyes had an offensive explosion, scoring 63 points against Nebraska. Unlike Baylor last week, 63 points was a winning score, as the Buckeyes held Nebraska to 38 points. That was more than any other team scored against Ohio State this season, so their offense is also strong, but their defense is now suspect.
Thursday night games
It's a triple threat night, as three games are featured.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Troy Trojans: The Hilltoppers are having a good season, while Troy is battling game after game. Troy can always be a threat, but I like the Hilltoppers' chances. WESTERN KENTUCKY by nine
UTEP Miners at Tulsa Golden Hurricane: Tulsa is having a good year, and are a favorite in Conference USA. At home, they can be a monster. TULSA by twelve
#20 Arizona State Sun Devils at Colorado Buffaloes: This is a horribly one-sided contest. Colorado is struggling at the bottom of the Pac-12, while Arizona State is an offensive giant. This won't be a nice game for the home town crowd. ARIZONA STATE by 26
Friday night: Navy Midshipmen at Central Michigan Chippewas: The Midshipmen stepped up last week, and I think they'll stay motivated. The Chippewas have some good games, but they are mostly having a tough season. NAVY by 17
Top 25
#1 Alabama Crimson Tide at Missouri Tigers: Missouri is having a tough season, and this game won't make it any easier for them. The Tide is rolling, and a bye week last week gave them unnecessary assistance. ALABAMA by lots
#3 South Carolina Gamecocks at #10 LSU Tigers: The Gamecocks made themselves a huge target last week by manhandling Georgia. If LSU finds their inner offense, they might surprise. However, they have played fairly anemic for most of the season, and it's been worse since SEC conference play has opened. I don't think they can win here. SOUTH CAROLINA by ten
#17 Stanford Cardinal at #4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish: I don't think the Cardinal will play a second consecutive overtime game, but that's only because the Irish won't need it. Stanford could win, but they've been too inconsistent for me to have enough confidence to pick them, NOTRE DAME by nine
#5 Ohio State Buckeyes at Indiana Hoosiers: The Hoosiers played Michigan State tough, who played Ohio State tough, but things will be different this week. The Hoosiers are a scrappy team, but they are too small compared to the bulk of the Buckeyes, both offensively and defensively. The large defenders will stop Hoosier players on the first hit, and offensively they'll just push them out of the way. OHIO STATE by 23
#6 Kansas State Wildcats at Iowa State Cyclones: Every time Iowa State gets close to the Top 25, they get knocked back. Unless they surprise the visiting Wildcats, that setback will occur this week. The Wildcats are loaded for bear, and their offense will be too much for the Cyclones. KANSAS STATE by 14
#7 West Virginia Mountaineers at #16 Texas Tech Red Raiders: We know the Red Raiders defense isn't as good as Texas, so expect the Mountaineers to have another scoring blitz. The Red Raiders can score quickly, too, and the Mountaineers' weak defense opens them up. Tech could score the upset, but I think the Mountaineers score a bit faster, and will make the last score of the game. WEST VIRGINIA by four
#8 Florida Gators at Vanderbilt Commodores: The Gators just beat LSU. Do you really think the Commodores will give them much trouble? Nah, I don't either. FLORIDA by 20
#9 Texas Longhorns at Oklahoma Sooners: Oh man, this is an intense rivalry. Texas rarely loses two games in a row, so I have to favor them just for that reason. However, watch out for Oklahoma. They finally exploded last week; if that was an indication that their offense has gotten over the hump, they will test Texas. TEXAS by twelve
#12 USC Trojans at Washington Huskies: Washington has already beaten Stanford this season, so USC cannot feel comfortable. Washington has a bit of a defensive problem, which should allow USC to outscore them, but this will be closer than Lane Kiffin will like. USC by eight
Boston College Eagles at #13 Florida State Seminoles: Florida State will be angry, and looking for an impressive win after their loss to NC State. Enter struggling BC, who are floundering at the bottom of the Atlantic division. The Seminoles get their wish. FLORIDA STATE by 23
Tennessee Volunteers at #15 Mississippi State Bulldogs: The Bulldogs are having a tremendous season, and it should continue this week. They have a non-conference game next week, but then things get tough for them. Enjoy it while you can, guys. MISSISSIPPI STATE by 18
TCU Horned Frogs at #18 Baylor Bears: This will be a close game. Baylor's defense should allow TCU to have a good day offensively, but Baylor's offense will stretch the Horned Frogs' defense. This will be an exciting game, likely decided by the last team to score. That sounds like Baylor to me. BAYLOR by six
Fordham Rams (FCS) at #21 Cincinnati Bearcats: The Bearcats are coming alive. Unfortunately, this victory won't help them in their Top 25 ranking, opening the door for teams like Texas A&M and Oregon State. CINCINNATI by 36
Utah Utes at #22 UCLA Bruins: Both teams are struggling in Pac-12 play. UCLA just suffered a tough loss to Cal. We'll see if that motivates them to win or starts them down a tunnel of despair. I'll pick UCLA, but if they don't pick up their game, it could be Utah's game to win. UCLA by six
Akron Zips at #23 Ohio Bobcats: Let's see, Ohio is unbeaten and Akron has not beaten a single FBS team. This one isn't hard to call. OHIO by 17
Syracuse Orange at #24 Rutgers Scarlet Knights: The Orange pulled off a surprise upset of Pitt last week to put themselves in the upper half of the Big East conference. It won't last, but it was an impressive performance. RUTGERS by eleven
#25 Louisville Cardinals at Pittsburgh Panthers: Pitt is suffering from two conference losses, and looking for an advantage. Unfortunately they host unbeaten Louisville, who comes off a bye week. LOUISVILLE by 15
Big Ten
Northwestern Wildcats at Minnesota Golden Gophers: The Wildcats get a chance to redeem themselves from a crappy fourth quarter last week. They'll play a complete game this week, knocking off the Gophers. NORTHWESTERN by ten
Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan State Spartans: Iowa is too inconsistent to win this one. The tough Spartan defense will grind the Iowa offense to a halt, and the Spartans offense is starting to spark. The combination of elements puts Michigan State in the driver's seat. MICHIGAN STATE by 14
Wisconsin Badgers at Purdue Boilermakers: Purdue will want revenge after their embarrassment against Michigan, but I'm not sure they'll get it. While Monte Ball is still not being as effective as he was in 2010 and 2011, the Badgers offense is starting to find its legs. Their defense still needs some work, but it's good enough to slow Purdue. WISCONSIN by eight
Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan Wolverines: As any Illinois alumnus will tell you, this is a bitter rivalry. If there is one team Illinois would beat that would make their season, it would be the Wolverines. Unfortunately, I don't think Illinois has the power to do it, even if some of their injured players come back for this game. MICHIGAN by 16
Other Games of Interest
Duke Blue Devils at Virginia Tech Hokies: Here are two amazing items: the Blue Devils are 5-1, and I favor them over the Hokies. Huh? Yup, Duke is showing power, and the Hokies are showing nothing but confusion. Duke has been there enough to know how to exploit it in someone else. DUKE bysix
Toledo Rockets at Eastern Michigan Eagles: The best team in the MAC West against the worst team in the MAC West. This one isn't hard to predict, although the point spread is. TOLEDO by 18
North Carolina Tar Heels at Miami Hurricanes: The best offense in the ACC faces off against one of the best defenses. Normally I pick the defense to win in these contests, but North Carolina is just rolling over opponents. Also, Miami is still suffering from a negative point margin against FBS opponents, which demonstrates their anemic offense. NORTH CAROLINA by 23
Nevada Wolf Pack at UNLV Running Rebels: Nevada leads the Mountain West, while the only win for UNLV this season was against conference opponent Air Force. Nevada will load up against the defensively-challenged Wolf Pack. NEVADA by 21
Oregon State Beavers at BYU Cougars: Oregon State is unbeaten, but they haven't won impressively. BYU has some big wins under their 4-2 belt, which also illustrates their inconsistency. If they play well, they'll upset the Beavers. I think Oregon State will win, but it may be another close one. OREGON STATE by twelve
Fresno State Bulldogs at Boise State Broncos: 4-2 Fresno State takes on 4-1 Boise, and Fresno has actually had the better of most of their opponents. However, Boise has encountered some tougher opponents, which should have prepared them well for this game. BOISE STATE by six
Buffalo Bulls at Northern Illinois Huskies: Another match-up of a top MAC team and a MAC weakling. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 21
Utah State Aggies at San Jose State Spartans: Utah State has a nuisance against non-WAC teams. Now they enter WAC play. That is usually a tough part of the season for them, but this Aggies team is well-loaded. So is San Jose, though, so I think the home team will win, albeit barely. SAN JOSE STATE by six
FCS Game of the Week: Youngstown State Penguins at Illinois State Redbirds: Illinois State is one of the leaders of the Missouri Valley Conference. That is an unusual position for them. Youngstown State has played closer games than usual, but are still 4-1 and contenders for the playoffs. They are used to position, and I think that experience will support them. YOUNGSTOWN STATE by eleven
GAME OF THE WEEK: Texas A&M Aggies at #19 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs: Tech enjoys their first week in my Top 25 (ever!), but will it last? The Bulldogs have been bullies against their opponents, but A&M has a sturdy defense. The Aggies' offense is strong, too, which gives them benefits on both sides of the ball. TEXAS A&M by eight
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