NCAA 2012 Week 9 picks

Once again a Sun Belt contest begins the week.  Since it doesn't feature the Sun Belt teams making the biggest splash this season, I'll again skip it.

Thurs Oct 25:  #14 Clemson Tigers at Wake Forest Demon Deacons:  Wake has played some good games, but they are too inconsistent to expect them to beat the Tigers.  Clemson is a force in the ACC; not the dominating force that Florida State is, but a consistent winner who outplays opponents.  CLEMSON by thirteen

Fri Oct 26
Cincinnati Bearcats at #24 Louisville Cardinals:  Cincy suffered their first loss against non-conference Toledo.  Could they suffer two losses in a row?  Louisville seems to be the better team, but I remember the last time we had three unbeaten Big East teams this late into the season.  Each team lost to another, and the Big East title came down to a three-way tiebreaker.  Somehow, I think the same thing will happen.  Cincy hosts Rutgers later and Rutgers hosts Louisville, so I'll go with the home teams to cause our confusion.  I still think Cincy will fight hard to prevent a second consecutive loss, and might pull off the upset.  LOUISVILLE by four

Nevada Wolf Pack at Air Force Falcons:  Air Force has struggled outside the conference, but they've been stiff competition within it.  Nevada has been a strong team all year.  The Wolf Pack is the easy pick, but don't expect Air Force to make it easy for them.  NEVADA by eight

Top 25
#13 Mississippi State Bulldogs at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide:  The Bulldogs have accumulated the best record they have ever had, but their winning streak is over.  Alabama is just too tough for everyone, and the Bulldogs are just the latest victims.  ALABAMA by 20

Colorado Buffaloes at #2 Oregon Ducks:  This may be the most one-sided game of the day.  Colorado has not been a tough competitor this season, and their defense is suspect.  Expect at least 55 points from the Ducks.  OREGON by lots

#12 Texas Tech Red Raiders at #3 Kansas State Wildcats:  Could the only unbeaten team in the Big XII suffer their first loss?  It's possible, but I don't think so.  The Wildcats have a decent defense, which could slow the Red Raiders' attack.  The Tech defense has slowed some strong teams, but the three overtime squeaker against TCU last week showed that Tech, a team not used to a good defense, still has some work to do on that squad.  KANSAS STATE by ten

#4 Florida Gators v #11 Georgia Bulldogs:  If this game was played between the hedges, the Bulldogs might stand a better chance.  Playing at a neutral location, though, firmly gives the edge to Florida.  The Gators are trying to prove that they the best in the SEC East, and a win here gives them a two-game lead in the division race, setting up their desired contest against Alabama for the SEC title.  FLORIDA by fifteen

#6 Ohio State Buckeyes at Penn State Nittany Lions:  The best teams in the Leaders division, and possibly in the entire Big Ten conference, face off this week.  Penn State has been looking better each week, but Ohio State toughens against strong opponents.  Weak ones have caught them by surprise this season, but the Buckeyes stiffen against stiff competition.  OHIO STATE by six

Duke Blue Devils at #7 Florida State Seminoles:  The surprising Duke Blue Devils lead the ACC Coastal division.  More surprisingly, they would still lead even after this loss, regardless of whether Miami or North Carolina win, due to tiebreaker advantages.  They'll need those advantages, because I don't see Duke emerging victorious here.  The Seminoles have a better offense, better defense, and better special teams than Duke.  Something really weird would have to happen for Florida State to lose this one.  FLORIDA STATE by sixteen

#10 USC Trojans at Arizona Wildcats:  This has not been a good Pac-12 season for the Wildcats, and the Trojans will continue their woes.  USC by 18

Tennessee Volunteers at #15 South Carolina Gamecocks:  The Gamecocks haven't won a game since they smothered Georgia.  They need to prevent a third straight loss.  I think struggling Tennessee is the best opponent for them to regain their footing.  SOUTH CAROLINA by 21

#16 Oregon State Beavers at Washington Huskies:  The Beavers are chasing state rival Oregon for the Pac-12 North title, and they don't want to lose pace until the two square off Nov 24th.  Washington won't give them much of a problem.  OREGON STATE by 16

#17 Boise State Broncos at Wyoming Cowboys:  The best Mountain West team against the worst.  This one is easy to pick.  BOISE STATE by 31

#18 Texas A&M Aggies at Auburn Tigers:  Normally competitive Auburn is languishing at the bottom of the SEC.  It's an unfamiliar position for them.  They'd like to get out of it, but their offense stinks and their normally reliable defense is struggling.  The Aggies aren't great, but they are powerful enough to kick Auburn butt.  TEXAS A&M by 20

#21 UCLA Bruins at #19 Arizona State Sun Devils:  UCLA had last week off, and they may have engineered a game plan to get them past the Sun Devils.  However, after last week's loss, I think the Sun Devils will tweak their own game plan, and get the offense moving better.  ARIZONA STATE by seven

#22 Ohio Bobcats at Miami Ohio Redhawks:  Ohio continues their run through the MAC, looking for their first unbeaten season.  They stand a good chance, as they don't face either Toledo or Northern Illinois until the MAC Championship, but they have to finish the season against Kent State.  They should be unbeaten going into that game, though. OHIO by nine

Kent State Golden Flashes at #23 Rutgers Scarlet Knights:  Speaking of the 6-1 (4-0 in MAC play) Golden Flashes, they face unbeaten Rutgers.  A MAC team knocked off an unbeaten Big East last week.  Could history repeat itself?  Rutgers hopes not, but the MAC is a tough conference this season.  I'll pick Rutgers, but watch out for Kent State.  RUTGERS by three

#25 Texas Longhorns at Kansas Jayhawks:  Easy game for Texas, as Kansas finds itself in a comfortable spot -- the basement of the Big XII.  TEXAS by twenty

Big Ten
Iowa Hawkeyes at Northwestern Wildcats:  Northwestern has two conference losses, but Iowa actually has a NEGATIVE point differential among conference opponents.  Northwestern has faced some tougher opponents this season, and emerged stronger.  Iowa is still too inconsistent for me to show much confidence.  NORTHWESTERN by nine

Indiana Hoosiers at Illinois Fighting Illini:  This is a game the Illini might win.  They're at home, and despite an offensive surge against Ohio State, Indiana has not been sharp.  To win, Illinois has to get their offense going, as it has been pathetic.  It's a longshot, but this is Illinois' best shot for a win, so I have to go for the long shot.  ILLINOIS by four

Michigan State Spartans at Wisconsin Badgers:  Michigan State is in free fall.  Their defense still has power, but the offense is sputtering again.  Wisconsin's offense has improved, not relying so much on a struggling Monte Ball.  WISCONSIN by eight

Purdue Boilermakers at Minnesota Golden Gophers:  Minnesota has Illinois' disease.  They played well prior to conference play, but a deficit offense has lost them every Big Ten game.  That will continue, despite a rather anemic offense from Purdue.  Purdue's offense has also shrunk since Big Ten play began, but they've shown flashes of strength, while Minnesota has really collapsed against conference opponents.  PURDUE by four

Other Games of Interest
Northern Illinois Huskies at Western Michigan Broncos:  Western Michigan has collapsed after a decent start to the season, which diminishes Illinois' only FBS victory.  Northern Illinois is running through MAC opponents to battle Toledo for the MAC West title.  NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 18

NC State Wolfpack at North Carolina Tar Heels:  NC State has been a bit of a surprise, but North Carolina has the offensive power to destroy their state rival.  The Wolfpack defense has been good, but it's not good enough to slow the behemoth that is the Tar Heels offense this season.  NORTH CAROLINA by eleven

Utah State Aggies at Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners:  UTSA has played decently in their first FBS season, but they played lots of FCS opponents early.  WAC play is proving tougher for them, and they have to play the conference-leading Aggies this week.  That won't help UTSA's FBS record.  UTAH STATE by 16

Fresno State Bulldogs at New Mexico Lobos:  Fresno has really caught fire the past few weeks, while New Mexico finds themselves mired in mediocrity this season.  That may be a normal position for New Mexico, but that won't stop them from fighting.  It won't prove enough, though.  FRESNO STATE by 18

Toledo Rockets at Buffalo Bulls:  Toledo keeps pace with the Huskies by trouncing Buffalo.  No letdown after their defeat of Cincy last week.  TOLEDO by 20

Baylor Bears at Iowa State Cyclones:  Both of these are teams who impressed during non-conference play and have been less than impressive during conference play.  Who will right their ship this week?  It's Baylor's offense against Iowa State's defense.  In cases like that, I usually favor the defense, especially when they are the home team.  IOWA STATE by four

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at New Mexico State Aggies:  Tech continues their march to compete with Utah State for the conference title.  LOUISIANA TECH by 30

UCF Golden Knights at Marshall Thundering Herd:  We've heard quite a bit about UCF this season, so they are the obvious favorite.  However, I think this game will be closer than most people would expect.  Marshall is no slouch, despite a 3-4 record, and these two teams match up well.  I'll pick UCF to continue their run though Conference USA, but watch out!  UCF by four

FCS Game of the Week:  Southern Illinois Salukis at North Dakota State Bison:  Two leaders of the Missouri Valley Conference face off, and we'll get to see how they really fare.  North Dakota State has been an offensive monster this season, while Southern Illinois' play is more conservative.  The winner matches up well to keep pace with conference leader Indiana State, who beat both of these teams.  The loser obviously falls dangerously back in the conference.  I like the Bison offense to roll in this one.  NORTH DAKOTA STATE by eleven

GAME OF THE WEEK:  #5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at #8 Oklahoma Sooners:  If this game were played in South Bend, it would be a tough pick.  However, the Sooners have been exploding after a slow start to the season.  Add that momentum to the home crowd fervor, and I have to favor the Sooners in this matchup.  OKLAHOMA by ten