NCAA Week 10 picks

Five previous unbeaten teams lost last week, so you would think there were plenty of upsets.  There were, and they began on Friday night, when Air Force beat up on Nevada.  The early afternoon on Saturday was slow, with only Boston College's upset of Maryland and the surprising 30-point victory Pitt engineered over Temple.  The later afternoon got active, though.  That's when three unbeaten teams fell:  #4 Florida, #22 Ohio, and #23 Rutgers.  Arizona also defeated USC and Oklahoma State slaughtered TCU.  In fact, the 3:30-7:15 time frame saw the losses of all of the teams who fell from the Top 25.  The evening slowed down upsets, featuring only three.  All of those were not necessarily upsets due to the team that won, as both could have gone either way, but due to the margin of victory.  Alabama humbled Mississippi State, who didn't look like a 7-0 team.  Nebraska embarrassed Michigan and Notre Dame, after a slow start, demolished Oklahoma in the fourth quarter.  The most shocking upset may have occurred late at night, when Washington humbled the normally dynamic Oregon State offense, given them their first loss.

Will we have that many upsets this week?  I don't know, but it's interesting to see if I can predict any of them.

Thursday games
Eastern Michigan Eagles at Ohio Bobcats:  The Bobcats no longer have to be concerned about maintaining their perfect record.  Now their focus shifts to regaining the division lead.  Destroying doormat Eastern Michigan will be an important start.  OHIO by 23

Virginia Tech Hokies at Miami Hurricanes:  The loss by Duke opens up the ACC Coastal division, so each of these teams really they can't afford to lose.  Miami has suffered three straight losses since a 4-1 beginning, while Virginia Tech has swung from great to poor, with no middle ground.  The difference will be which Virginia Tech team shows up.  Since I can't count on them, I'll pick Miami, but the Hokies have the better talent, if they bring it.  MIAMI by four

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers:  Owners of two of the better team nicknames face off, with second place in the Sun Belt on the line.  The Hilltoppers are certainly the more capable team, but the Raiders are a sneaky bunch.  I'll pick Western Kentucky, but this one could go down to the wire.  WESTERN KENTUCKY by six

Friday Nov 2:  Washington Huskies at Cal Golden Bears:  The Huskies upset the Beavers last week, and all of a sudden they are coming from a position of strength.  If they do not suffer an emotional letdown after the "Beaver busting," the Huskies should win.  WASHINGTON by eight

Top 25 games
#2 Oregon Ducks at #11 USC Trojans:  The Trojans do not lose consecutive games too often, but it'll happen here.  I don't think USC will upset the Ducks.  Their defense is okay, but it's not strong enough to slow down the Ducks for long.  USC can score, but they are a tamer team this year than in previous years, so I don't think they can keep pace with the Flying Ducks.  OREGON by 18

Oklahoma State Cowboys at #3 Kansas State Wildcats  The Cowboys are on a roll, but that roll comes to an end.  The Wildcats are for real, and they have a Heisman front runner at quarterback.  More impressive is their defense, which has slowed Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Texas Tech this season.  A win here practically guarantees the Wildcats the Big XII title, albeit not actually (mathematically they could miss the crown, but not realistically, based upon their remaining schedule).  KANSAS STATE by 23

Pittsburgh Panthers at #4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish:  This one won't be pretty, at least for Pitt fans.  No matter who plays QB, the Irish will roll.  NOTRE DAME by 34

Illinois Fighting Illini at #6 Ohio State Buckeyes:  The Illini are pathetic and the Buckeyes are beasts.  This one will be more one-sided than the Pitt-Notre Dame game.  OHIO STATE by lots

Ole Miss Rebels at #7 Georgia Bulldogs:  The Bulldogs need to win all of their remaining SEC games to win the division crown.  They know it, and they're prepared.  It's always hard to win in Athens, and this determined crew will make it much harder than usual.  GEORGIA by 16

Missouri Tigers at #8 Florida Gators:  Florida wants to bounce back from their tough loss to Georgia, and struggling Missouri is just the perfect patsy.  FLORIDA by 24

#10 Clemson Tigers at Duke Blue Devils:  In what may be a preview of the ACC Championship, Duke hosts the determined Clemson Tigers, who want to reach that ACC Championship game but know they need help -- the Seminoles beat them earlier, so Florida State has to lose to give Clemson a chance.  Duke also wants to punch a ticket to the championship game, but they feel they stand a good chance if they win out.  A loss here, though, makes it tougher.  I think this will be a hard-fought close game, but I give a slight edge to the Tigers.  CLEMSON by six

#13 Oklahoma Sooners at Iowa State Cyclones:  Oklahoma is staring down a very long barrel in consideration for the Big XII title, but they are hoping to impress enough for a BCS at-large bid.  A big win here would help.  OKLAHOMA by 16

#14 Texas A&M Aggies at #16 Mississippi State Bulldogs:  The Bulldogs were smothered by Alabama.  an they bounce back?  If they didn't face a team as tough as A&M, I might think so.  A&M will stretch them, though, and after last week, the Bulldogs will break.  TEXAS A&M by ten

San Diego State Aztecs at #15 Boise State Broncos:  A win here removes the last major threat to Boise State winning the Mountain West.  Since they don't play surging Air Force, they know they can't afford to lose a conference game.  It starts here, though, and I think the owners of the blue turf will emerge victorious.  BOISE STATE by 13

#24 Texas Longhorns at #17 Texas Tech Red Raiders:  These two teams have the same records, but Texas is more suspect.  Tech has lost to stronger teams, while Texas nearly lost to Kansas.  I have to favor the Raisers, although the Longhorns' offense will stretch the weakened Tech defense.  TEXAS TECH by four

#20 Arizona State Sun Devils at #18 Oregon State Beavers:  This game could definitely go either way, but I think the Beavers will want to bounce back from last week's surprise in Washington.  Expect the lead to swap a few times during this game until the Beavers lock it up late in the fourth quarter.  OREGON STATE by eight

Arizona Wildcats at #19 UCLA Bruins:  USC's loss, and expected loss against Oregon, opens the door for UCLA to officially win the Pac-12 South division this year (they won last year only because USC was on probation).  While Arizona will be looking for their second consecutive upset, I don't think they'll get it.  UCLA by thirteen

UMass Minutemen at #21 Northern Illinois Huskies:  This game will be a breeze for the MAC co-leader. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 26

Texas-San Antonion Roadrunners at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs:  The Roadrunners need one more win to be bowl eligible, but I don't think they'll get it.  Still, 5-7 won't be a bad record for their first season in FBS.  LOUISIANA TECH by 34

Temple Owls at #23 Louisville Cardinals:  The Cardinals are the only survivors of the Big East's "big three," when the Big East had the most unbeaten teams in FBS.  Hard to believe that was only two weeks ago.  One team has fallen each week, but since Louisville doesn't play a MAC team, they might be safe.  Playing Temple is definitely a safety measure to maintain that unbeaten record.  LOUISVILLE by 14

Akron Zips at #25 Kent State Golden Flashes:  Akron trails in the MAC East, while Kent State leads the division.  This was is an easy pick.  KENT STATE by 24

Big Ten games
Michigan Wolverines at Minnesota Golden Gophers:  If Denard Robinson plays, the Wolverines are an easy pick.  Without him, it'll be harder.  I'll pick them, just for the quality of their defense, but Minnesota is definitely hoping Robinson's injury is severe enough to keep him out.  MICHIGAN by ??? (hard to project without knowing Robinson's status)

Iowa Hawkeyes at Indiana Hoosiers:  I'm going for the upset here, as the Hoosiers offense has gained steam the past two games while Iowa's has sputtered.  INDIANA by twelve

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan State Spartans:  After early high hopes, Andrew Maxwell is not coming along as quickly as the Spartans' coaching staff hoped.  Nebraska is looking to win the Legends division, and a win here brings them one step closer.  NEBRASKA by eight

Penn State Nittany Lions at Purdue Boilermakers:  Last week was an interruption in the continued improvement of Penn State, but they'll bounce back.  After all, the Penn State players have been having to bounce back from adversity all year.  PENN STATE by 18

Other Games of Interest
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Arkansas Razorbacks:  It has been a disappointing year for the Razorbacks, while Tulsa is looking good.  This non-conference game doesn't help Tulsa's title chances, but it might help their bid to leap into the Top 25.  TULSA by 18

Stanford Cardinal at Colorado Buffaloes  The entire Pac-12 has been beating up on Colorado; it's Stanford's turn.  STANFORD by 21

Texas State Bobcats at Utah State Aggies:  The Aggies need to keep pace with Louisiana Tech in the WAC.  3-4 Texas State won't be an obstacle.  UTAH STATE by 26

Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns at Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks:  The Warhawks control their own destiny in the Sun Belt.  They're already bowl eligible; the next step is winning the conference.  This one won't do it; they need to beat Arkansas State next week.  Still, it adds to their reputation.  LOUISIANA-MONROE by 20

Hawaii Warriors at Fresno State Bulldogs:  Hawaii hasn't won a single Mountain West game all season.  That streak will continue unabated.  FRESNO STATE by 18

SMU Mustangs at UCF Golden Knights:  Tulsa is rooting for UCF, because an SMU loss guarantees them the Conference USA West title if they beat Houston next week.  Tulsa should get that wish, as UCF needs to keep wining in the conference, too.  UCF by 16

FCS Game of the Week:  Wagner Seahawks at Albany Great Danes:  I'm going to attend this game, as the Danes will win the Northeast conference with a win here. Wagner's good, but the Danes defense has been killer.  Add in an opportunistic offense, as well as an unbeaten home record, and Albany should get that crown.  ALBANY by 16

GAME OF THE WEEK:  #1 Alabama Crimson Tide at #9 LSU Tigers:  The Tigers got an extra week to prepare for this game, but I don't think it'll help.  Yes, LSU upset the #1 Tide last season to capture the top spot, only to lose the rematch in the BCS National Championship game.  This year the result will resemble the BCS title game and not the 9-6 snoozer from last year's regular season.  Alabama will score often, while LSU will be distracted by the drug arrests of their current and former teammates this past week.  ALABAMA by 16 to capture the SEC West crown