NCAA 2014 Week 1 picks

We are the cusp of another NCAA Football season!  It kicks off on Wednesday, but I'll skip that game.  Since we don't have a Top 25, I'll list the games featuring Big Ten teams, and other important games of note.

Thurs Sept 28
Texas A&M Aggies at South Carolina Gamecocks:  This game is crucial to the Gamecocks.  They lost a couple of key players, although not as key as those lost by the Aggies.  Still, if the Gamecocks want to establish their lead in the SEC East division, this victory is crucial.  SOUTH CAROLINA by eight

Eastern Illinois (FCS) Panthers at Minnesota Golden Gophers:  This could be a tough game for the Gophers, as Eastern Illinois is no slacker.  Still, I think the Gophers are tenacious enough to win this game.  MINNESOTA by ten

Boise State Broncos at Ole Miss Rebels:  I start disputing the national experts early, as this is my first "upset".  Ole Miss is being considered a dark horse for playing in the SEC title game, but I don't have such faith in them.  They tended to fade late in games last season, and I have no indication that they've solved that problem.  On the other hand, Boise State never gives up, and they fight hard.  BOISE STATE by 12

Fri Sept 29
Jacksonville State (FCS) Gamecocks at Michigan State Spartans:  With the stiff defense of the Spartans, the Gamecocks might not score a single point.  MICHIGAN STATE by 24

Sat Sept 30
Big Ten:
Penn State Nittany Lions at UCF Golden Knights:  Without Blake Bortles, it will take a while for UCF to get on track.  Their defense will keep this a low-scoring affair, but the Nittany Lions have too many weapons.  PENN STATE by ten

Ohio State Buckeyes at Navy Midshipmen:  Everyone is lamenting that Braxton Miller's injury takes Ohio State out of the game.  I'm not so quick to dismiss them.  They still have a strong defense, a decent running game, and good receivers to catch the ball whoever throws it.  Their strong offensive front will also help a newbie QB.  Meanwhile, their strong defensive front will make it hard for the Navy's ground game.  OHIO STATE by 11

Appalachian State Mountaineers at Michigan Wolverines:  I don't think the Wolverines will take Appalachian State so lightly this time.  It's also a bit of a rebuilding year for the Mountaineers, so the Wolverines get a nice break.  MICHIGAN by 16

Indiana State (FCS) Sycamores at Indiana Hoosiers:  The Hoosiers get an FCS in-state rival to open their season.  Nice scheduling.  INDIANA by 13

Northern Iowa (FCS) Panthers at Iowa Hawkeyes:  This game isn't as easy as it sounds, as in-state rivals Iowa State and Northern Iowa have given the Hawkeyes problems in recent years.  Iowa needs to start strongly out of the gate, but this might be closer than they would like.  IOWA by eight

Western Michigan Broncos at Purdue Boilermakers:  I'd love to see all of the Big Ten win their openers, but I don't think that will happen.  Purdue is a weak team this year, and the Broncos have enough tools to beat them.  WESTERN MICHIGAN by eight

Youngstown State (FCS) Penguins at Illinois Fighting Illini:  Illinois needs to have a strong season, and a loss to a FCS team, even one as strong as Youngstown State, would not look good.  Fortunately, the Illini have recently tended to start the season strong and then fade, so I think they'll do well this game.  ILLINOIS by 11

Florida Atlantic Owls at Nebraska Cornhuskers:  Nebraska gets an easy start to uphold their national ranking.  NEBRASKA by 27

California Golden Bears at Northwestern Wildcats:  The Wildcats gave Cal fits when they traveled to Berkeley last year, and I think they'll do it again on their home turf.  NORTHWESTERN by 16


Other Games of Interest:
UCLA Bruins at Viginia Cavaliers:  Virginia often starts the season strongly before fading, but that won't be so here.  They will be the first victims of Brett Huntley's Heisman campaign.  UCLA by 20

West Virginia Mountaineers at Alabama Crimson Tide:  The Tide's unbeaten season begins here.  ALABAMA by 30

Rice Owls at Notre Dame Fighting Irish:  While the Irish have some tough games ahead, this isn't one of them.  NOTRE DAME by 26

Marshall Thundering Herd at Miami Ohio Redhawks:  The Thundering Herd get to start their domination.  MARSHALL by 24

Arkansas Razorbacks at Auburn Tigers:  Auburn starts its run for an SEC division title by tackling conference foe Arkansas.  AUBURN by 20

UC Davis (FCS) Aggies at Stanford Cardinal:  This one won't even be close.  STANFORD by lots

Clemson Tigers at Georgia Bulldogs:  This is practically a "toss-up" game.  Both teams have advantages that would seem to give them an edge.  Close games like this can often swing on something as basic as home field, especially for the first game of the season.  GEORGIA by three

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Oklahoma Sooners:  No doubt about the result of this one, which could have a margin of victory close to Stanford's.  OKLAHOMA by 34

Fresno State Bulldogs at USC Trojans:  The Bulldogs may give the Trojans a battle, but I think USC will emerge victorious in the end.  USC by six

Florida State Seminoles at Oklahoma State Cowboys:  The Seminoles begin their title defense on the road, but I don't think that'll slow them down much.  FLORIDA STATE by 27

South Dakota (FCS) Coyotes at Oregon Ducks:  The Ducks will roll here.  OREGON by lots

Sun Aug 31
SMU Mustangs at Baylor Bears: Baylor gets a hot start by taming the Mustangs.  BAYLOR by 23

Mon Sept 1
Miami Hurricanes at Louisville Cardinals:  This game could really determine if Miami will be a serious force in the ACC.  If Louisville plays them close, then Miami is likely a non-contender.  I think Miami will win, but the question is by how much?  MIAMI by nine

GAME OF THE WEEK:  Wisconsin Badgers at LSU Tigers:  In the postseason, Big Ten v SEC games tend to go to the SEC.  However, this is early, before teams have completely gelled.  Moreover, the injury to Braxton Miller has most of the national analysts not only writing off Ohio State, but writing off the entire Big Ten conference.  Furthermore, the big comments about Wisconsin on ESPN has been how they do not produce big-time QBs.  True, but that's not how they are built.  They play a physical pounding ground game, designed to wear down opponents.  So early in the season, I'm not sure if LSU will have properly prepared for such a physically demanding game.  They may lead early, but I see Wisconsin coming back.  WISCONSIN by four