NCAA 2014 Preview I

This year, I do something different with my college football preview columns.  Conference realignment has made geographical divisions hard, so instead I use the configuration of the conferences.  I will start with the major power conferences that have conference championship games, then review the minor conferences with conference championship games, and then finish with the independents and conferences without championships.

Big Ten
With addition of Rutgers and Maryland expanding the conference to 14 teams, it ties the ACC and SEC for the largest power conference.  They abolished the Legends and Leaders division tags for more traditional labels.

East division
1.  Michigan State Spartans (8-0 conference; 12-0 overall):  No, that is NOT a misprint.  The league's best defense last year should come back losing hardly an eyelash.  They benefit from a schedule that brings their toughest opponents to Lansing (Michigan, Ohio State, and Nebraska).  Their toughest challenge is a trip to Eugene Oregon on Sept 6th.  If that defense can slow down the Ducks, the Spartans can run the table, win the Big Ten conference game, and grab one of the four playoff spots.

2.  Ohio State Buckeyes (7-1; 11-1):  Everyone is "gloom and doom" over the Buckeyes chances with Braxton Miller reinjuring his shoulder.  However, that might not hurt them too badly.  While some reporters are saying he is out for the season, I don't think a competitor like him will stay out.  The Buckeyes defense should keep the team winning until Braxton can return.  If they can stop the running game of Navy, their next real challenge is against Penn State on October 25th -- Miller might be back by then.

3.  Michigan Wolverines (6-2; 9-3):  Spared from facing Nebraska and Wisconsin, the Wolverines don't get a complete break, as they have to travel to both Columbus and Lansing.  QB Devin Gardner is too inconsistent for the Wolverines to count on him against tough defenses.  A good defense, decent play-calling, and fancy moves by Gardner will let them win close games against other opponents.

4.  Penn State Nittany Lions (5-3; 8-4):  Linebacker U is looking a bit thin these days.  They converted two defensive linemen to offensive lineman, which might be dangerous.  Watch those hands, guys, or you'll be racking up penalties.  QB Christian Hackenberg has to show growth, as he lost the best wide receiver to graduation and #2 tight end to injury.

5.  Indiana Hoosiers (3-5; 6-6):  A poor defense still hampers them.  If they lose to Bowling Green, they bowl chances are slim.  The offense is decent, but not the powerhouse it was in 2011.

6.  Maryland Terrapins (1-7; 3-9):  QB CJ Brown did well last year, but now he's up against stiffer defenses.  The Terps will have a sharp learning curve in the conference.  At least a decent defense will prevent too many blowouts.

7.  Rutgers Scarlet Knights (1-7; 3-9):  This will be a long hard year for the Scarlet Knights.  The offensive line looks decent, but the passing game is weak.  The defense is much too slow for the speed of Big Ten opponents.

Big Ten West
1.  Wisconsin Badgers (8-0; 11-1):  The Badgers' biggest conference challenge is their opener at Northwestern.  There is lots of talk about how, with the exception of Russell Wilson, the Badgers don't produce premier quarterbacks.  That's true, but with the running back factory they have, they don't really need to.  They wear down defenses with a grinding ground attack, letting them tire and putting them away in the fourth quarter.

2.  Iowa Hawkeyes (6-2; 9-3):  I'm not sure if the Hawkeyes grab the #2 spot due to an improved team or a faltering of the rest of the division.  With Nebraska behind them, I'd say Iowa gets help from a nice schedule and stout defense.  Their only real conference challenges come at the end, with games against Wisconsin and Nebraska.

3.  Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-3; 9-3):  QB Tommy Armstrong saw action last year, so he's primed to be under center.  With mostly seniors at wide receiver and tight end, the passing game should improve.  Amer Addullah returns at running back, but a rebuilt offensive line may hamper the running attack to start the season.  The defense took a slight hit with the transfer of Aaron Curry, but it's still a strong squad.

4.  Northwestern Wildcats (4-4; 6-6):  This squad is shrinking in talent every day as opening week approaches.  After being suspended for the first two games due to an unspecified infraction, RB Venric Mark decided to transfer.  Then injury took out WR Christian Jones.  New QB Trevor Siemian needs all the help he can get, as he doesn't have the field sense of Kain Colter, but he's not getting it.  This team will sputter early.

5.  Illinois Fighting Illini (2-6; 6-6):  Two FCS teams on the schedule shows how low the Fighting Illini have sunk.  They might be better this year, especially if linebacker Mike Svetina heals his broken foot.  QB Nathan Scheelhaase improved last year, and backup Reilly O'Toole showed some strength.  If the defense stiffens and a ground game can be established, Illinois might surprise some opponents.

6.  Minnesota Golden Gophers (1-7; 3-9):  QB Mitch Leidner practiced with Patriots backup QB Ryan Mallet, but don't expect him to throw like Mallet.  Still, the wide receiving corps is boosted by true freshman Melvin Holland.  RB David Cobb has the running game going, but the defense lost a lot from last year.

7.  Purdue Boilermakers (0-8; 2-10):  Another winless conference season for the anemic Boilermakers.

Pac 12 North
1.  Oregon Ducks (8-1; 10-2):  QB Marcus Mariotta is back from injury, but he is missing some of his favorite targets from last season.  That might hurt the flow of this team early in the season, especially against the stout defense of Michigan State.  If they have to rely more on designed runs and a running attack, that could reduce their point total, which will hurt them against offensive monster UCLA and defensive Stanford.

2.  Stanford Cardinal (7-2; 10-2): A rebuilt offensive line puts QB Kevin Hogan on the run, which won't help reduce his interception percentage.  He has a good squad of wide receivers to help him, and a sturdy defense to help prevent big deficits, but a questionable running game puts added pressure on Hogan.

3.  Oregon State Beavers (5-4; 8-4):  QB Shane Mannion can make some big plays, but he folded under pressure last year.  If he has matured past that, the Beavers will be dangerous.  They lost Mannion's two favorite targets, though, so a learning curve is necessary.  Without a stable running game, Mannion and the passing game is the offense.

4.  California Golden Bears (3-6; 5-7):  Like Stanford and Oregon State, Cal has a poor running attack.  Unlike the other two, Cal has a poor defense, too.  This team will live or die on the shoulders (or arm) of QB Jared Goff.  He had over 3500 passing yards last season, so he can do it, but can he produce enough offense to compete with their opponents, who should be able to score easily.

5.  Washington State Cougars (2-7; 4-8):  Fifth-year senior QB Connor Halliday must stay healthy, as they have no real QB to back him up.  Halliday has all of his wide receivers back, but a terrible defense will put this team behind early and often.

6.  Washington Huskies (2-7; 4-9):  A young QB and inexperienced receivers makes their passing game suspect.  They have a good defense, but I don't think it's good enough to stop the many strong offenses that they will face.

Pac 12 South
1.  UCLA Bruins (9-0; 12-0):  Hosting Oregon, USC, and Stanford gives the Bruins an edge.  QB Brett Hundley is poised for a great season.  He led them in rushing last season, so a power back is really needed to relieve the stress on his body.

2.  USC Trojans (7-2; 9-3):  QB Cody Kessler is not quite in the same mold as former Trojan QBs, so he needs great receivers to support him.  Unfortunately, with the departure of Marqise Lee, the best WR is injury-prone George Farmer.  The secondary has holes, which is a problem for the passing-strong Pac 12.  Worse, the players have to learn the new system under new coach Steve Sarkisian.

3.  Arizona Wildcats (5-4; 8-4):  Coach Rich Rodriguez is still undecided who will start at quarterback, so it's hard to judge how well this team will do.  Since all four quarterback prospects have been uninspiring in spring ball, though, I'd say we shouldn't count on the passing attack for several weeks.  Thankfully a strong defense will help give that squad time to develop.

4.  Arizona State Sun Devils (4-5; 6-6):  Their high-powered offense is counter-balanced by an errant defense.  Last year's poor defense lost nine starters, so they start out inexperienced.  However, considering how bad they were last year, maybe starting fresh will be a good thing.

5.  Utah Utes (2-7; 3-8):  QB Travis Wilson had too many interceptions last season.  If he falters again, he may be replaced with Oklahoma transfer Kendal Thompson.  Whoever is under center has a great squad of receivers to catch.  A decent defense will prevent blowouts, but that defense tends to tire and fade in the fourth quarter.

6.  Colorado Buffaloes (0-9; 1-11):  I hope the Buffaloes enjoy the money they get from being in the Pac 12 conference, because I can't see any other reason for their move to this conference, as they have struggled mightily, and will continue to do so.

SEC East
1.  South Carolina Gamecocks (6-2; 9-3):  The team lost only two starters from last season, but they were key cogs:  Jadeavon Clowney and QB Connor Shaw.  Those two will take a bit to replace, so the Gamecocks will finish stronger than they begin.

2.  Missouri Tigers (5-3; 8-4):  The Tigers have a strong defense, but the loss of QB James Franklin hurts.  That takes nothing way from Maty Mauk, who was excellent last season.  Mauk needs to stay healthy, though, as they don't really have a capable backup.  Fortunately a strong offensive line will help keep Mauk intact.

3.  Florida Gators (4-4; 7-5):  An easy non-conference schedule (with the exception of Florida State) helps the Gators.  New offensive coordinator Kurt Roper brings in the no-huddle offense, but is it too quick for the injury-prone Gators offense?  They should improve on last season's 4-8 record, and even make a bowl game, but they won't really be a force in the conference.

4.  Georgia Bulldogs (4-4; 6-6):  A new quarterback and trashed secondary makes the Bulldogs questionable on both sides of the ball. At least a great running game will help give new QB Hutson Mason time to develop.

5.  Kentucky Wildcats (2-6; 4-8):  The Wildcats have strong offensive and defensive lines, but the secondary needs some work.  A good running attack is unfortunately matched with a weak passing game, led by newbie QB Patrick Towles.

6.  Tennessee Volunteers (2-6; 5-7):  They must improve an anemic pass attack to compete in this conference, which goes more for dynamic offenses than pounding ground games.  Fortunately the defense has some high spots, although it is slower than many of their opponents' defenses.

7.  Vanderbilt Commodores (0-8; 4-8):  This team has a perfect storm - an unbeaten non-conference schedule matched with a winless conference schedule.  The Commodores often surprise one conference team a year, so they may go 5-7, but I can't see which team they might beat.

SEC West
1.  Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0; 12-0):  The quarterback is a question mark, but all other areas are solid.  With the quality of receivers, any quarterback will look good.

2.  Auburn Tigers (6-2; 9-3):  The defense was a problem last season, and they lost their two best defenders.  Losing Tre Mason hurts the offense, too, but QB Nick Marshall still has an arsenal.  They face an early challenge in a road trip to Manhattan, Kansas.

3.  LSU Tigers (4-4; 7-5):  The defense should improve, but there are questions on offense as key starters are all new:  QB Brandon Harris, WR Malachi Dupre, and RB Leonard Fournette.  They benefit from a nice non-conference schedule, with the exception of Wisconsin.

4.  Mississippi Rebels (4-4; 7-5):  If QB Bo Wallace can remain healthy, they should compete in games that they faded late last season.  They have a strong offensive backfield to support Bo Wallace, and a potent defense with nine returning starters keeps their games close.

5.  Texas A&M Aggies (2-6; 6-6): Their defense wasn't great last year; they won by Johnny Football outscoring opponents. Without that, this will be a rough season.

6.  Arkansas Razorbacks (2-6; 4-8):  The Razorbacks have a strong running attack, but an anemic passing game.  In this conference, that's not enough, especially since their defense is lacking.

7.  Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-7; 4-8):  Great non-conference schedule, but they'll get pulverized in the SEC

ACC Atlantic
1.  Florida State Seminoles (8-0; 12-0):  The defending national champs lost only 4 starters from last year's squad.  They are deep enough that these loses shouldn't hurt, except they lost their two best runners.  QB Jameis Winston may become the top runner this year, too.  Their defense lost no punch, making this team a threat to repeat.

2.  Boston College Eagles (5-3; 7-5):  Florida transfer QB Tyler Murphy seems a lock to start, but can he salvage a passing attack that has been moving in slow motion?  At least they have a great running game and an improved defense to help them.

3.  NC State Wolf Pack (4-4; 7-5):  They lost their most experienced wide receivers during the off-season.  Fearing an anemic passing attack, coach Dave Doeren has reinstated "indefinitely" suspended RB Shadrach Thornton to lead running attack.

4.  Clemson Tigers (4-4; 6-6):  This team lost ALL of the key elements of their potent passing attack.  A strong defense will keep things close, but this team will need time to develop.

5.  Louisville Cardinals (3-5; 5-7):  Goodbye Teddy Bridgewater.  New (and former) coach Bobby Petrino has a major rebuilding job, including on his own reputation.

6.  Wake Forest Demon Deacons (2-6; 6-6):  Their bowl chances are boosted by an easy non-conference schedule.  QB John Wolford is a true freshman, so this team has a learning curve.

7.  Syracuse Orange (2-7; 4-8):  Returning RB Prince-Tyson Gulley was the only bright spot on either side of the ball last year, and so far it looks the same.

ACC Coastal
1.  Duke Blue Devils (6-2; 10-2):  Despite an early loss to Miami, the Blue Devils should win the division again.  Their offense proved they could keep pace with Johnny Football (and no team except Florida State can do that in this conference), and the defense should be almost as tough as last season.

2.  Miami Hurricanes (5-3; 8-4):  The 'Canes look okay, but injured DB Rayshawn Jenkins and a sore throwing arm on WB Jake Heaps leaves some questions about how much they can produce.

3.  Virginia Tech Hokies (5-3; 8-4):  The Hokies have a good secondary, but the rest of the defense has some weaknesses.  The offense needs a boost, and the starting QB hasn't been decided yet.  This team will start in some disarray.

4.  Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (4-4; 7-5):  Last year Tech had a great running game but a terrible passing attack.  That should be similar this year.  The defense kept them in games last year, and that should also be the same.

5.  North Carolina Tar Heels (3-5; 4-8):  The Heels have a tough road schedule.  Their strong defense took a hit from departures.  The core of their offense last year remains, but it'll still be a struggle.

6.  Virginia Cavaliers (1-7; 3-9):  Most of the defense returns, but they still have holes.  The Cavs have a strong running game led by RB Kevin Parks.  That's good, as their passing attack stinks.

7.  Pittsburgh Panthers (0-8; 3-9):  Most of last year's squad returns, but they weren't good last year.