NCAA 2014 Preview III

I conclude my predictions for the 2014 NCAA FBS season with the conferences lacking a championship game, along with independents.

Big XII
1.  Oklahoma (7-2 conference; 10-2 overall):  I am one of few people not picking Oklahoma to reach the playoffs, instead choosing Michigan State, UCLA, Alabama, and Florida State.  The biggest reason for that is the uncertain passing game.  QB Trevor Knight was inconsistent last season, and he lost some great targets in the off-season.  Most of the defense returns, but the offense will still need some time to gel.

2.  Baylor Bears (6-3; 9-3):  The offense returns nearly totally intact, but the defense lost quite a few good players.  They face early challenges in conference play, too, before they can get their new defense flowing.

3.  Kansas State Wildcats (6-3; 9-3):  The defense looks good, but QB Jake Waters can break down and make poor decisions on third and long.  They also suffer from a thin wide receiving corps, which could hurt them later in the season if they suffer too many injuries.

4.  Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-4; 7-5):  They have to open against Florida State and close the season with their toughest conference challenges.  They should do well in between, but that closing stretch will hurt them, both in winning record and potentially in injuries.

5.  TCU Horned Frogs (4-5; 7-5):  QB Trevor Boykin did well in relief of Casey Paschall last year, so the passing game looks to be in good shape.  The running game, however, does not.  With some losses on defense in the off-season, this team may need time to come together.

6.  Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-5; 7-5):  They lost their best wide receiver, but whoever ends up as starting quarterback still has plenty of talent to receive his passes.  A porous defense hurts them more.

7.  Texas Longhorns (4-5; 6-6):  QB David Ash has to stay healthy if he wants to continue Texas' improvement.  The defense is also improving, but they had a problem of sometimes missing plays and tackles last season.

8.  West Virginia Mountaineers (3-6; 5-7):  The defense took hits in the off-season, and that squad wasn't great last year.  Losing their best runner doesn't help the situation.  Add in interception problems from QB Clint Trickett, and this team will struggle.

9.  Iowa State Cyclones (2-7; 3-8):  QB Sam Richardson returns to lead a mediocre passing attack.  With a weak offensive backfield and a slow and porous defense, this team has lots of problems.

10.  Kansas Jayhawks (0-9; 1-11):  With a weak passing game and the loss of their two best running backs to injury, there just isn't much offense on this team.

American
1.  Cincinnati Bearcats (7-1; 9-3):  Notre Dame transfer QB Gunner Kiel takes over the offense, which is a major step up from Brendon Kay.  With most of last season's starting offense returning, this squad will be powerful.

2.  Houston Cougars (6-2; 9-3):  Eight offensive starters return, so this team is packed.  The defense lost some punch, and might require a couple of weeks to get their legs back.

3.  East Carolina Pirates (6-2; 7-5):  QB Shane Carden leads a powerful passing attack.  That strength is needed, as they lost their best running back.  The defense is decent, although not quite up to normal Pirate standards.

4.  Memphis Tigers (5-3; 7-5):  RB Brandon Hayes returns to give QB Paxton Lynch time to fully develop.  A defense returning eight starters and a favorable conference schedule helps this team, too.

5.  UCF Golden Knights (4-4; 5-7):  The offense lost too much in the off-season.  Not just Blake Bortles, but also their best running back and half of the offensive line.  Defense is okay, but they can't carry the game.

6/  Tulsa Golden Hurricane (4-4; 5-7):  The defense returns ten of their starters from last season.  That's good, because with most of the offensive backfield new, this offense will take time to gel.

7.  South Florida Bulls (3-5; 5-7):  Mike White remains the quarterback, but he must reduce his interception percentage, especially since the running backs lost their best player.

8.  SMU Mustangs (3-5; 4-8):  A thin receiving corps and weak defense won't help the development of whomever takes over as quarterback.

9.  Tulane Green Wave (2-6; 3-9):  There are lots of new starters this year.  A flurry of injuries during spring ball makes me question the durability of this team.

10.  UConn Huskies (1-7; 2-10):  They have a good defense and many of their offense starters return.  They have to learn a new system from new coach Bob Diaco, so this season is a learning curve.

11.  Temple Owls (1-7; 2-10):  QB PJ Walker has new wide receivers to throw to.  The defense looks to be slightly better, but not enough.  If they spend this year getting in sync with each other, they could compete next year.

Sun Belt
1.  Louisiana Lafayette Ragin Cajuns (7-1; 9-3):  They return most of last year's starters.  The Cajuns may have the best offense in the conference.

2.  Louisiana Monroe Warhawks (6-2; 6-6):  Good receiving corps and strong defense.  A tough non-conference schedule may leave them slightly battered.

3.  Georgia Southern Eagles (5-3; 6-6):  The Eagles follow their victory over Florida by stepping up to FBS.  They may be doing it with a new coach, but this team is loaded with talent and should compete.

4.  Appalachian State Mountaineers (4-4; 6-6):  Another new FBS team, now it won't be so much of an upset when they beat teams like Michigan, who they face in their opener.  Unfortunately a slew of graduations leaves the team a bit tattered this year.

5.  Arkansas State Red Wolves (4-4; 5-7):  The team is breaking in a new quarterback and a new coach.  While the running back corps is solid, this looks to be a rebuilding year.

6.  South Alabama Jaguars (4-4; 4-8):  A new quarterback has some good targets, but a questionable defense means they'll battle for each victory.

7.  Troy Trojans (3-5; 4-8):  A new quarterback and poor defense means a long year for Troy.

8.  New Mexico State Aggies (2-6; 3-9):  They have a similar situation to Troy, and a tougher non-conference schedule.

9.  Georgia State Panthers (1-7; 2-10):  The offense is improving, but they still have a long way to go.

10. Texas State Bobcats (1-7; 2-10):  With a tougher non-conference schedule, this will be a tough year.

11. Idaho Vandals (1-7; 1-11):  Their QB carousel needs to settle on one, to make the offensive game plan simpler and more consistent.  A weak defense holds them back.

Independents
1.  Navy Midshipmen (11-1):  The best running game in the nation has a great schedule.  They should sweep their opponents after dropping to Ohio State in their opener.

2.  BYU Cougars (9-3):  QB Taysom Hill leads an experienced offense.  With a strong defense and great schedule, this team will be bowl bound.

3.  Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-5):  QB Everett Golson returns after sitting out 2013 for cheating, but now other players are locked in a cheating investigation.  Between those suspensions and the other defenders lost in the off-season, this team will have trouble stopping the many powerful offenses on their schedule.

4.  Army Black Knights (7-5):  The Black Knights could nab a bowl berth in their last year as an independent, before joining the Sun Belt as a football-only member.  They have a comparative easy schedule, and their crushing ground game remains intact.  If they can fix some defensive woes, this team can compete.