2014 NFL AFC Preview

It's football season again, so it's time to test my prognostication skills and predict how I see the divisional races resolving.

AFC East
1.  New England Patriots (11-5 overall; 6-0 in division; playoff team):  Brady proved last year that he can work with just about any wide receivers, regardless of their experience and familiarity with the game plan.  Since most of the squad has been with him for at least a year, they should have a better idea of his preferred routes, so the offense should click even better.  The defense may be slightly weaker, but Darrelle Revis brings speed and savvy to the squad.

2.  Miami Dolphins (7-9; 4-2):  A major overhaul of the offensive line was necessary, as last year's squad gave up 58 sacks.  That's important, as QB Ryan Tannehill needs the time to find his best target.  The team has good corners, but the rest of the defense can be beat.

3.  New York Jets (4-12; 1-5):  For the third straight year, the team has quarterback problems.  Geno Smith is still making mistakes, and Michael Vick has lost his zip, both in his running and his passing arm.  The QB woes means the rotating batch of running backs will see lots of work.  Weak corners negatively impacts Coach Ryan's scheme of confusing opposing offenses.  This could be the year that Ryan loses his job.

4.  Buffalo Bills (3-13; 1-5):  EJ Manual has decent wide receivers, including Robert Woods, Mike Williams, and Sammy Watkins.  He has no excuses this year, so he has to perform.  He definitely needs to cut down on his interceptions.  Unfortunately, he has already thrown two in preseason.  If Manuel can't perform, RB CJ Spiller must stay healthy, as he is the only stable runner they have.  The defense flies under the radar, but they have good people, including Mario Williams, Kyle Williams, and Brandon Spikes.  They will be relying heavily on them this season.

AFC North
1.  Cincinnati Bengals (9-7; 4-2; playoffs):  QB Andy Dalton must live up to his expectations this season.  The offense is packed with talent, and the defense is good enough to slow down opponents.  The team's future is centered on Dalton.  With down years by Pittsburgh and Baltimore, the Bengals ought to win the division. The question is, can they win a playoff game?

2.  Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7; 4-2):  The Steelers face some issues with stoners LeVeon Bell and LeGarrette Blount. Problems with their offensive backfield puts renewed pressure on QB Ben Roethlisberger.  He has a bunch of talented wide receivers, and tight end Heath Miller knows Ben and his habits well.  The defense, normally a Steelers staple, is rebuilt this year, so things won't be easy.

3.  Baltimore Ravens (8-8; 4-2):  The once vaulted defense has serious holes, especially on the inside.  They really have not been able to find players to replace Ray Lewis and Ed Reed.  What makes matters worse is that this defense is vulnerable to power runs and short passes -- the life blood of Pittsburgh and other opponents they face.

4.  Cleveland Browns (2-14; 0-6):  Josh Gordon's suspension makes life even more difficult for whomever plays quarterback.  Brian Hoyer has struggled in the preseason, which makes the fans clamor for Johnny Manziel.  That would be a BIG mistake.  Browns' coaches have stated to the media that Manziel has only learned about half of the playbook.  If that sounds slow, it is, but it's not surprising.  As he showed both in school and when he taught at the Manning Camp, Johnny Football does not like to study.  He didn't need to learn the system at Texas A&M, as Coach Sumlin admitted that they adjusted their game plan to fit Manziel.  The Browns can't do that, so Manziel is stuck.  If he is allowed time to sit and learn, he might be good.  If he is brought in too soon, he'll try to use the same tricks he used in college, and it won't fool their opponents.  He will be beaten badly, and since he lacks maturity, he will fall apart.  If the Browns value their investment, they will hold him back.

AFC South
1.  Indianapolis Colts (13-3; 5-1; playoffs):  QB Andrew Luck has tons of talent to work with.  The defense may need a bit of work, but Luck and company can outscore just about anyone they face. 

2.  Houston Texans (12-4; 4-12; playoffs):  Jadeveon Clowney should contribute early, even though he is surrounded by great talent.  As great as the front seven are, the defensive secondary has some concerns.  The offense has been rocky, too, and it wouldn't surprise me if Case Keenum soon unseated Ryan Fitzpatrick for starting quarterback.

3. Tennessee Titans (4-12; 2-4):  QB Jake Locker is not great even when he is healthy, which has not been as often as his team would like.  RB Dexter McCluster is also frequently injured, so he's likely to be supplanted by Shonn Greene.  This team is still juggling too many key positions to be successful.

4.  Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13; 1-5):  The team is still working to improve the defense.  I predict Blake Bortles will replace Chad Henne somewhere mid-season.  With the development of some key players, including WR Marquise Lee and RB Toby Gerhart, this team has the potential to surge late in the season, and perhaps vault over Tennessee for third place.

AFC West
1.  Denver Broncos (14-2; 5-1; playoffs):  Could this offense get even better than they were last year?  They lost Eric Decker, but a healthier Wes Walker and acquisition Demaryius Thomas more than compensate for that.  Rookie Cody Latimer could even see time.  The defense has been upgraded, too, gaining Aqib Talib, TJ Ward, and DeMarcus Ware.  This team will be a monster.

2.  San Diego Chargers (10-6; 4-2; playoffs):  Brandon Flowers and a healthy Melvin Ingram boosts the defense.  In a year when many starting QBs have struggled in preseason, Philip Rivers has been at the top of his game, making the most of some iffy receivers.  Watch him continue to do that during the regular season.

3.  Kansas City Chiefs (8-8; 3-3):  A fractured offensive line hurts Alex Smith, as he will have less time to find his receivers.  Jamal Charles will be chased more, too.  The defense has improved, but the offensive issues might hurt this team.

4.  Oakland Raiders (3-13; 0-6):  QB Matt Schaub hopes to right the sinking ship that is the Raiders.  They have only two really good receivers (Rod Streater and Greg Little), so the offense will rely on the running game.  Darren McFadden was slowing down, so they brought in Maurice Jones-Drew.  He should help, but the mangled offensive line will let in too many defenders.  The Raiders' defense is a patchwork.  They had nine new starters last year and will likely have six new starters this season.  This team cannot develop if they cannot maintain stability.