NCAA 2014 Week 5 picks

Most of my picks are straight-forward this week, although I may have a couple of surprises.  Let's jump right into it.

Thurs Sept 25
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oklahoma State Cowboys:  Tech's on a bad spiral right now, while the Cowboys are a strong team.  This one shouldn't be too much of a challenge for the home team.  OKLAHOMA STATE by 18

UCLA Bruins at #11 Arizona State Sun Devils:  The Bruins are unbeaten but unimpressive.  A win here would impress, but the Sun Devils have been playing very well, and knock opponents around.  If Brett Huntley doesn't start showing that Heisman prowess, the Bruins will lose.  ARIZONA STATE by 16

Fri Sept 26
Fresno State Bulldogs at New Mexico Lobos:  How low have the Bulldogs sunk this season?  How about being chosen to lose to perennial doormat New Mexico.  NEW MEXICO by nine

Sat Sept 27
Top 25:
Memphis Tigers at #3 Ole Miss Rebels:  A nice easy game to pad their numbers.  Ole Miss still has to face conference opponents to impress the selection committee, however.  OLE MISS by 30

#4 Baylor Bears at Iowa State Cyclones:  Great opponent to start conference play; this should be a sweep.  BAYLOR by 36

Arkansas Razorbacks at #5 Texas A&M Aggies:  Arkansas is a decent team, but they have their hands full with the Aggies.  Their defense can do no better than slowing them down slightly, and their offense can't keep pace.  TEXAS A&M by 24

Illinois Fighting Illini at #7 Nebraska Cornhuskers:  I think my mother and I should turn away during this game.  Illinois has to play a backup quarterback against the strongest team in the conference?  Ugh.  NEBRASKA by 34

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at #8 Auburn Tigers:  Easy win for the Tigers, who need an easy game after last week's squeaker.  AUBURN by 30

#9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Syracuse Orange:  Well, the Orange STARTED their season well.  This will bring them to an even record.  NOTRE DAME by 24

#12 Duke Blue Devils at Miami Hurricanes:  The Canes already lost their conference opener, and will now go 0-2.  Rare occurrence for Miami, but not surprising.  Do you know they have a NEGATIVE margin of victory against FBS teams so far this season?  That'll expand after this game.  DUKE by  24

#14 Stanford Cardinal at Washington Huskies:  The Huskies have come burning out of the gate, but they pit their unbeaten record against a stiff defense.  The Huskies will make a game of it, but I think Stanford will emerge victorious.  STANFORD by eight

#22 Tennessee Volunteers at #16 Georgia Bulldogs:  It's extremely hard to win between the hedges, and Tennessee knows that.  This rivalry isn't as intense as the one with Florida, so emotions won't be high enough to help Tennessee overcome a strong Georgia team.  GEORGIA by 13

New Mexico State Aggies at #18 LSU Tigers:  Easy win for the Tigers. No need to come from behind here, as they won't be behind. LSU by 34

#19 Missouri Tigers at South Carolina Gamecocks:  Surprise time!  The Gamecocks are favored.  After Missouri's loss to Indiana, I can see why.  However, the Gamecocks have been very inconsistent this year, following big wins with horrible losses.  I also think the Indiana shock will awaken the Tigers.  They'll be more fierce in this game, too fierce for the sputtering Gamecocks.  MISSOURI by 20

Oregon State Beavers at #21 USC Trojans:  The Beavers love to upset ranked conference opponents, but they usually do that at home.  USC may not win by much, but they should emerge victorious.  USC by 13

Washington State Cougars at #23 Utah Utes:  This Pac-12 battle won't be as close as the one above.  The Cougars are struggling, while Utah will ride the wave of their delayed victory over Michigan.  UTAH by 26

Big Ten:
Wyoming Cowboys at Michigan State Spartans:  Easy game for the Spartans.  Another chance to impress the selection committee.  MICHIGAN STATE by lots

South Florida Bulls at Wisconsin Badgers:  The oft-tough Bulls defense is lacking something this year, and that something is toughness.  Wisconsin wears down opposing defenses with a crushing ground game, and they will do that again here.  WISCONSIN by 34

Iowa Hawkeyes at Purdue Boilermakers:  Can Iowa follow up their upset over Pitt with another win, after a dismal start to the season?  I think so.  The new starters are coming together, and that could spell trouble for a Purdue team languishing in mediocracy.  IOWA by 17

Northwestern Wildcats at Penn State Nittany Lions:  With some Top 25 projected losses, a strong win here should send Penn State into the Top 25.  They'll get it.  Northwestern has been disappointing so far thsi season, and I don't see them getting it together for this game.  PENN STATE by 23

Tulane Green Wave at Rutgers Scarlet Knights:  Rutgers continues a good start with a win here.  After playing a close game against Penn State, the conference needs to pay attention to their new recruit.  RUTGERS by 23

Maryland Terrapins at Indiana Hoosiers:  Maryland starts conference play facing the team that upset Missouri.  Talk about pressure!  Maryland had a tendency to start strong and then collapse when they hit conference play.  Will that trend continue in their new conference?  Perhaps.  I'll pick Maryland, because they have played better overall so far this season, but if last week showed that Indiana was getting things together, Maryland will be crushed.  MARYLAND by four

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Michigan Wolverines:  Michigan is looking to bounce back from their loss to Utah, but Minnesota won't make it easy.  The Gophers are playing well, and could surprise the Wolverines.  MICHIGAN by six

Cincinnati Bearcats at Ohio State Buckeyes:  Ohio State has a chance to impress selection committee members with a strong victory here.  New QB JT Barrett practiced hard these past two weeks, and should have a solid game.  OHIO STATE by 34

Next 20:
UTEP Miners at Kansas State Wildcats:  Upset alert!  K-State has a small losing margin of victory (-2) against FBS teams, while UTEP has played well.  If the Wildcats underestimate UTEP, they will lose.  They need to be ready to battle.  They will likely trail at halftime; the deciding factor may be how much they trail.  I'll pick Kansas State, but don't be surprised to see UTEP knock them down.  KANSAS STATE by six

TCU Horned Frogs at SMU Mustangs:  TCU gets a nice win to lead into conference play.  TCU by 30

Colorado State Rams at Boston College Eagles:  The Eagles will soar here, building on a resume bolstered by their upset win over USC two weeks ago.  BOSTON COLLEGE by 32

Kent State Golden Flashes at Virginia Cavaliers:  Kent State was blown away by Ohio State 66-0.  This game will be closer, but it'll still be a huge loss.  VIRGINIA by 34

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Louisville Cardinals:  Wake could only beat Army by three points.  This was after losing to Utah State by twelve.  Louisville should start their ACC conference play with an impressive 2-0 record, establishing themselves as a team to beat.  LOUISVILLE by 24

Colorado Buffaloes at Cal Golden Bears:  Cal's had a tough time with FBS opponents so far, but Colorado has had it tougher.  CAL by 17

Boise State Broncos at Air Force Falcons:  Boise will continue to win, and take a 2-0 lead in the Mountain West.  BOISE STATE by 21

GAME OF THE WEEK:  #24 Florida State Seminoles at #20 NC State Wolfpack:  UPSET!  Jameis Winston will be chopping at the bit to play after sitting out all of last week, but that eagerness may cause him to overthrow some receivers.  We saw last week that the receivers don't always run clean routes; it is Jameis' eye that allows for completions.  If he screws up and throws a couple of interceptions, the Wolfpack can win this game.  NC STATE by six