NFL 2014 Power Rankings and Week 4 picks

I'm still struggling to get back to my normal percentage of making picks.  This happened the last time I signed up for one of those competitive "U Pick-Em" contests.  I do better when I don't use my prognostication powers for profit.

Top 10 [Last week's position]
1.  CINCINNATI BENGALS (3-0) [5] : Believe it or not, the Bengals now house the best defense in the league
2.  Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) [3] : Chip Kelly has the best offense in the league
3.  Arizona Cardinals (3-0) [7] : Beating San Fran moved them up.  Their offense still needs work, but their defense is stiff
4.  Seattle Seahawks (2-1) [10] : The defending Super Bowl Champs won the rematch, but they required overtime to do it
5.  New England Patriots (2-1) [11] : While their offense still looks to get their restructured line in order, the defense holds down the fort
6.  San Diego Chargers (2-1) [12] : Known for their offense, their defense leads their division
7.  Detroit Lions (2-1) [14] : They lead the NFC North with a strong defense and power-packed offense
8.  Houston Texans (2-1) [1] : Decent defense, although no longer the best in the league
9.  Buffalo Bills (2-1) [4] : Skunked by San Diego
10. Denver Broncos (2-1) [6] : Forced Seattle into overtime

Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1.  AFC North [4] : Big wins by Cincy and Pitt pushed this division up
2.  NFC West [1] : Arizona and Seattle impress.  Concerns are being raised about the 49ers
3 (tie). AFC East [2] : Tough week without a winner in sight
3 (tie). NFC East [2] : Still tied with their AFC regional mates, although they did get a couple of wins
5 (tie). NFC North [5] : Detroit sailed; the Bears should have
5 (tie). AFC West [7] : San Diego had great win, and Denver impressed in overtime loss
7.  AFC South [7] : Colts won; the rest lost big
8.  NFC South [6] : Atlanta looked good, but Carolina suffered first loss

Week 4 picks
Thursday night:  New York Giants at Washington Redskins:  The Giants had a tremendous offensive explosion against Houston, but I'm not sure Eli and company have really learned their new scheme yet.  Kurt Cousins resumes full-time starting duties, as he did last year, and the Redskins offense may move more smoothly.  REDSKINS, 27-17

Sunday early games:
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans:  The Texans should bounce back and give the Bills their second consecutive loss.  EJ Manual and company are doing well, but they face a very stiff defense.  TEXANS, 23-16

Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens:  The Panthers depleted backfield gets a boost with the return of DeAngelo Williams, but it is more important for the passing offense to get coordinated.  The Ravens defense excels at shaking things up, so I don't think the Panthers will get it together this weekend.  RAVENS, 20-16

Detroit Lions at New York Jets:  The Jets have a potent defensive line that shuts down a running game, but the Bears exposed their secondary last week.  Watch for Megatron and the Lions exploit that.  LIONS, 27-16

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears:  Prior to the start of the season, I had no problem picking the Packers to win this game.  Now, not so much.  Yes, the Bears defense is banged up already, but they showed spunk and determination against the Jets.  They have trouble stopping a running attack, but the Packers haven't been using one recently.  Therefore, the Bears have the edge on defense.  The normally regimented Packers offense is confused, so the Bears have an advantage on offense, too.  BEARS, 24-17

Miami Dolphins at Oakland Raiders:  Oakland's offense continues to struggle, producing the fewest than any other team.  Miami has also struggled, but not as badly as Oakland.  This won't be a big game offensively, but it will be a Fin win.  DOLPHINS, 16-10

Tampa Bay Bucs at Pittsburgh Steelers:  How badly are the Bucs struggling?  How about the fact that the only team with a larger point differential is Jacksonville?  STEELERS, 23-17

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts:  The Colts continue their climb back into the upper echelons of the league after starting 0-2.  Tennessee had a fabulous first week, but they haven't been able to repeat that.  Their offense is the second worst in the league. COLTS, 34-23

Sunday late games:
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings:  Matt Cassel is out, likely for the rest of the season.  That brings in rookie Teddy Bridgewater.  We'll see if he's ready to play in the NFL or not.  The Vikings defense will help his improvement, but can that defense hold against a Falcons offense that clicked last week?

Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers:   Jacksonville's defense can't stop the Chargers, and the Chargers defense is certainly capable of stopping them.  CHARGERS, 37-10

Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers:  Like the Packers-Bears matchup, I'm changing my mind on this one.  The 49ers are struggling, while the Eagles offense is soaring.  EAGLES, 33-24

Sunday night:  New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys:  This game will depend upon which Saints team shows up.  They should roll over the Cowboys in an offensive showdown, but both are capable of self-destruction.  I'll reduce the offense but still give the edge to the Saints.  SAINTS, 24-17

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:  New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs:  The Chiefs offense isn't delivering like expected.  The defense is okay, but not as tough as last year.  Both squads excelled against Miami last week, but I'll believe the Chiefs are on the mend if they do it again.  I don't think they'll do it this week.  PATS, 23-16