NCAA 2014 Week 6 picks

We start to see more matchups pitting Top 25 teams against each other.  Now is when the rankings get interesting.

Thurs Oct 2
#15 Arizona Wildcats at #10 Oregon Ducks: Both teams will be well-rested for this matchup.  Oregon's offense hasn't been quite as dominant in previous years, except for that dynamic comeback against Michigan State, but I think they'll still prevail, despite a tough Arizona defense.  OREGON by 18

Fri Oct 3
Louisville Cardinals at Syracuse Orange:  Syracuse has been a tenacious opponent this season, but they falter late in games.  Louisville is potent, and should keep the pressure on.  LOUISVILLE by 23

Utah State Aggies at #13 BYU Cougars:  BYU has the best shot to go unbeaten due to their relatively easy schedule.  Utah State did well last year, but they've lost too much.  BYU by 24

Sat Oct 4
Top 25:
#1 Alabama Crimson Tide at #3 Ole Miss Rebels:  Alabama hasn't been as sharp as Nick Saban would like them to be, but they had an extra week to sharp up and prepare for a strong Rebels team.  Ole Miss has been blowing away opponents, but Alabama is the first tough defense they are facing.  The Rebs aren't used to being such a highly-ranked team; at some point, the pressure will get to them.  This game is that moment.  ALABAMA by 16

#2 Oklahoma Sooners at #12 TCU Horned Frogs:   TCU has gotten better each week, but the quality of their opposition just took a major leap upwards.  This game will prove just how good the Horned Frogs defense really is.  I don't think it's good enough to stop Oklahoma.  OKLAHOMA by 18

#4 Baylor Bears at Texas Longhorns:  It has not been a good year for Texas.  Baylor's porous defense will allow them to score, but the Bears offense will just roll.  BAYLOR by 30

#5 Nebraska Cornhuskers at #24 Michigan State Spartans:  Nebraska has a potent offense that will stretch the Spartans defense.  That defense lost some punch from the #1 ranked squad they had last year.  Although Michigan State will keep it close, the Cornhuskers will likely pull this one out.  NEBRASKA by 12

#22 Stanford Cardinal at #9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish:  Everett Golson committed three turnovers last week.  If he does that again, the opportunistic Stanford defense will shred them.  However, that was an aberration that I'm sure Coach Kelly will work on this week, so I favor the Irish, as the Stanford offense has been sputtering.  NOTRE DAME by 20

#11 LSU Tigers at #6 Auburn Tigers:  This matchup is always a tough battle, frequently a defensive melee.  LSU shined brightly last week, but it was against New Mexico State.  LSU's most impressive win was against Wisconsin, and they were helped by Wisconsin injuries.  Auburn has been a force all season, and that will continue here.  AUBURN by 20

#14 Ohio State Buckeyes at Maryland Terrapins:  Maryland is having a fine year, but the serious part of Big Ten conference play begins now.  Ohio State takes a little time to get going, so Maryland might lead early, but the Buckeyes defense will swarm over them in the second half.  OHIO STATE by 14

Vanderbilt Commodores at #16 Georgia Bulldogs:  Vandy is not having a good year.  Despite some struggles by Georgia, this game should be over quickly.  GEORGIA by 34

#17 Florida Gators at Tennessee Volunteers:  These games are often interesting; two of them in recent years went to multiple overtime periods.  Given Tennessee's strength this season, this game could be quite interesting.  The only edge I see is the fact that Florida had a bye week, while Tennessee had to deal with Georgia this past week.  FLORIDA by nine

Utah Utes at #18 UCLA Bruins:  It took a while for Brett Huntley to show his Heisman-caliber ability, but it showed up last week.  If he can keep that going, the Bruins will continue to rise.  Utah may be exhausted by the overtime battle with Colorado.  That exposed some big holes in the Utes defense, holes UCLA will exploit.  UCLA by 24

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at #20 Florida State Seminoles:  After a couple of tough battles, the Seminoles get an easy to improve their Top 25 standing.  FLORIDA STATE by 31

Arizona State Sun Devils at #21 USC Trojans:  USC hasn't looked sharp, but the Sun Devils collapsed last week.  If they can't reverse that, they will have a difficult few weeks ahead of them.  USC by 16

#25 NC State Wolfpack at Clemson Tigers:  Clemson is not having a good 2014.  NC State played Florida State tough until late in the fourth quarter.  Don't count on Clemson lasting that long.  NC STATE by 23

Big Ten:
Purdue Boilermakers at Illinois Fighting Illini:  The Illini defense is practically non-existent, but the offense can produce.  Purdue's offense has only shown up against FCS Southern Illinois and weakened Western Michigan, who put up 34 points against the Purdue defense.  I have to like Illinois' chances.  ILLINOIS by ten

North Texas Mean Green at Indiana Hoosiers:  Indiana fell to Maryland after upsetting Missouri, but I don't consider the Missouri game a fluke.  Indiana has power; I think they just underestimated the Terrapins.  They won't do that to North Texas, although the Mean Green aren't so mean on the field this year.  INDIANA by 16

Wisconsin Badgers at Northwestern Wildcats:  Northwestern came back to life last week.  If that was not a fluke, they can be dangerous.  Wisconsin's ground game is punishing, though, wearing down defenses.  That will be too much for the weakened Wildcat defense.  WISCONSIN by 17

Michigan Wolverines at Rutgers Scarlet Knights:  How bad a season is Michigan having?  How about the fact that I don't favor them to beat a conference newbie?  Rutgers has not been overly impressive in achieving their 4-1 record, but they have won.  Granted, their only conference game so far was a loss to Penn State, but look at that game.  The normally decent Penn State offense was held to 13 points, and Rutgers held their own against Linebacker U.  This team can deliver, and they will deliver Michigan their fourth loss.  RUTGERS by nine

Other Games of Interest:
Marshall Thundering Herd at Old Dominion Monarchs:  Did Marshall really need an extra week to prepare for the former FCS Monarchs?  Nah, I didn't think so, either.  MARSHALL by lots

SMU Mustangs at East Carolina Pirates:  The Pirates defense isn't as fierce as it has been previously, but that won't matter against the struggling Mustangs offense.  EAST CAROLINA by 33

Iowa State Cyclones at Oklahoma State Cowboys  There has to be some concern in the Cowboys camp after the Cyclones put up four touchdowns against Baylor.  However, 28 points is the most the team has mustered all season, while the Cowboys are capable of scoring in the thirties and forties.  OKLAHOMA STATE by 16

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Kansas State Wildcats:  Last week was the first impressive win for the Wildcats, but they will get another one.  The Tech defense has been non-existent, allowing Kansas State to score at will.  If the Wildcats don't hurt themselves with turnovers, this will be a blowout.  KANSAS STATE by 34

South Carolina Gamecocks at Kentucky Wildcats:  Oh man, I'd love to pick Kentucky.  They have played their SEC opponents tough so far this season.  However, South Carolina suffered a tough one-point loss to Missouri, so I know Coach Spurrier will have the guys more finely focused this week.  It won't be an easy win, though.  SOUTH CAROLINA by six

Pittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Cavaliers:  This could be a close game against two decent 3-2 teams.  Virginia has been sneaky this season, though, so Pitt should watch out for some trick plays and defensive shifts.  VIRGINIA by ten

Miami Hurricanes at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets:  Everyone is talking about how Miami dismantled Duke, but let's look at their entire season.  They have already lost to Louisville, giving them a conference loss.  Their only other two wins were against weaklings.  Georgia Tech is unbeaten, despite winning by just enough.  This will be more a testament to Tech's strength than to Miami.  GEORGIA TECH by 13