NCAA Football 2019 Week 5 results

We didn't have many upsets this week, and none among top teams, but poor performances by some of the Top Ten teams shook up the rankings.  ESPN's Kirk Herbstreit spent most of Saturday night remarking how Ohio State had the most impressive and complete team across these five weeks, and how they deserved to be the Number One team.  My statistical model agrees with him, and thus the Top Ten looks a bit different this week.

Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0) [4]
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (5-0) [2]
3. Penn State Nittany Lions (4-0) [7]
4. Wisconsin Badgers (4-0) [3]
5. Clemson Tigers (5-0) [1]
6. LSU Tigers (4-0) [5]
7. Georgia Bulldogs (4-0) [6]
8. Auburn Tigers (5-0) [8]
9. Oklahoma Sooners (4-0) [9]
10. Oregon Ducks (3-1) [10]
11. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3-1) [11]
12. Iowa Hawkeyes (4-0) [14]
13. Texas Longhorns (3-1) [12]
14. Washington Huskies (4-1) [13]
15. Michigan State Spartans (4-1) [16]
16. UCF Golden Knights (4-1) [18]
17. Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-1) [20]
18. Utah Utes (4-1) [22]
19. Baylor Bears (4-0) [19]
20. Florida Gators (5-0) [27]
21. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (5-0) [20]
22. Kansas State Wildcats (3-1) [17]
23. Michigan Wolverines (3-1) [NR]
24. TCU Horned Frogs (3-1) [NR]
25. Boise State Broncos (4-0) [28]

Dropped off: Washington State Cougars [#15], Navy Midshipmen [#23], Virginia Cavaliers [#24], USC Trojans [#25]

On the Edge: SMU Mustangs (5-0), Arizona State Sun Devils (4-1), Missouri Tigers (3-1), Minnesota Golden Gophers (4-0), Memphis Tigers (4-0)

Big Ten Report
All of the Big Ten games concluded as expected, although some of the performances were surprising.  Wisconsin's offense seemed to evaporate against Northwestern, while Michigan's offense made fans wonder where they've been all season.  Michigan State's defense couldn't hold back Indiana, and Minnesota had to hold back a late game charge by Purdue.

With Wisconsin's offense now exposed, Ohio State should have no trouble holding them back.  Now the greatest challenge Ohio State will have are the Nittany Lions.  Wisconsin is still the strongest team in the West division, only because I don't think Iowa has a strong enough defense to emulate Northwestern and hold back the Badgers.  Other teams, like Michigan State and Ohio State, do.  Wisconsin will likely suffer losses to those two teams, at least, so if Iowa can lose only to Wisconsin they might win the division.  Unfortunately the Hawkeyes face Penn State, so the West winner will likely have two losses, and Wisconsin would hold the tiebreaker over Iowa.

Upset Watch
The Pac-12 lost their remaining unbeaten team when the Sun Devils beat Cal.  It wasn't necessarily an upset, as I had those two teams fairly evenly matched, but it practically guarantees the Pac-12 will be excluded from the playoffs.

Clemson is still in the mix, but they should really be thankful that Mack Brown chose to attempt a two-point conversion.  North Carolina nearly beat the Tigers, and they showed better teams how that can be done.  They still face some decent defenses, so their dominance in the playoff race has eroded.

Staying in the ACC, a real upset found NC State falling to the faltering Florida State.  Whether this was an aberration or the start of a Seminole revival remains to be seen, but the Wolf Pack can't care which -- it just diminished their chances at playing in the ACC Championship Game to practically nil.

The UAB Blazers suffered their first loss at the hands of struggling Western Kentucky, a tough blow to their divisional hopes.  They now trail Louisiana Tech and face some questions about where they stand.