NCAA Bowls 2010 picks

This is the first half of my bowl picks columns.  This one covers games starting Saturday December 18th and goes through Thursday December 30th.  I will mention a couple of interesting surprises from this year's schedule.  First of all, all three of the independent teams play in bowl games, something that hasn't happened in over twenty years.  Also, due to strange scheduling, there are three bowl games in a row featuring matchups between the Big Ten and SEC.  Just how wierd is that?  Even stranger, all three of those games are on New Years Day, and two other New Years Day bowl games feature Big Ten teams.  The Big Ten has eight teams in bowl games, and five of those play on January 1st.

Sat Dec 18:
Albuquerque Bowl - BYU Cougars v UTEP Miners:  UTEP had a good year, but they had a favorable schedule.  Their only impressive win was against SMU.  BYU, on the other hand, started by beating Jake Locker and the Washington Huskies, then recovered after a four game losing streak.  They finished the season by nearly beating Utah.  BYU just warmed up better for this game.  BYU

Humanitarian Bowl - #21 Northern Illinois Huskies v Fresno State Bulldogs:  The first appearance of a ranked team in the bowls happens on the first day, which I'm sure Northern Illinois will take as a snub.  It doesn't matter that the Huskies lost the MAC title game, they probably expected a better bowl.  They'll take their frustration out on the Bulldogs, whose 8-4 record marked a good season.  The Bulldogs might have registered an upset if it wasn't for the Huskies' perceived slight.  NORTHERN ILLINOIS

New Orleans Bowl - Ohio Bobcats v Troy Trojans:  I'd love to see the Sun Belt win this one, but the MAC was a tough conference this year, with plenty of teams clustered together.  Ohio prevailed against some tough opponents, and that gives them the edge here.  Let's face it, the Sun Belt isn't challenging enough to be a decent warm-up.  OHIO

Tues Dec 21 - Beef O'Bradys Bowl - Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles v Louisville Cardinals:  A new bowl game with a sponsor I've never heard of, and I don't know if we'll see this one next year.  For now, though, it features an interesting matchup.  Southern Miss has been up and down this season, so they aren't a sure pick.  Louisville has had a down season, but the team is a scrapper, and would love to pull off the upset.  I'll pick Southern Miss, but watch out for those fiesty Cardinals.  SOUTHERN MISS

Wed Dec 22 - Las Vegas Bowl - #16 Utah Utes v #7 Boise State Broncos:  In what I'm sure is a disappointment for both teams, the first contest between ranked teams (and the only contest until New Years Eve) features two teams that hoped to push the BCS bubble this season.  Boise stumbled against Nevada while Utah just died in their last four games.  I think Utah will remain down for this game.  Boise's spirit may be down, but they'll play well enough to squash the Utes.  BOISE STATE

Thurs Dec 23 - San Diego Bowl - Navy Midshipmen at San Diego State Aztecs:  This is basically a home game for the Aztecs, which makes it dangerous for Navy.  The Aztecs were actually a strong team this year.  All four of their losses were by five points or less, and the Aztecs offense showed that they can score.  The question is, though, whether their run defense is strong enough to slow the second best rushing offense in the NCAA.  I don't think so, which is why I like Navy winning by three.  NAVY

Fri Dec 24 - Hawaii Bowl - Tulsa Golden Hurricane at #22 Hawaii Warriors:  Another home game, as the Warriors celebrate Christmas Eve in sunny and warm Hawaii.  Hawaii is often tough at home, and they were brutal this season.  Tulsa's defense is good, but I don't think they'll stop the Warriors.  HAWAII

Sun Dec 26 - Little Caesars Bowl - Florida International Golden Panthers v Toledo Rockets:  The NCAA looks to compete with Football Night in America as Toledo takes on the relatively new Florida International football team.  I've seen some national analysts pick the Panthers, but I don't see it.  FIU didn't win a single non-conference game, while Toledo beat Purdue.  The Rockets were also getting better later in the season (with the exception of their blowout loss to Northern Illinois), which I think shows that their young players were maturing into their roles.  I like the MAC to sweep the Sun Belt in the bowls.  TOLEDO

Mon Dec 27 - Independence Bowl - Air Force Falcons v Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets:  Air Force is frequently tough in bowl games.  While they don't get to represent the armed forces in the Armed Forces Bowl (the military academy with the WORST record gets that dubious honor), they get a weakened Yellow Jackets team to help boost their bowl record.  AIR FORCE

Tues Dec 28:
Champs Sports Bowl - #20 West Virginia Mountaineers v NC State Wolf Pack:  First, let me congratulate the NC State Wolf Pack for an excellent season.  They appeared in the Top 25 several weeks, although they didn't finish the season there.  NC State overwhelmed some tough opponents, but losses to Clemson and Maryland hurt their record.  For the Big East, it was certainly a down year for the conference, and there were times when no conference team was ranked.  West Virginia hung on to their rank, but it certainly doesn't help that the conference winner AND runner-up failed to make the Top 25.  That would seem to open the door for NC State, but the Mountaineers are a tough bowl opponent, and I think they'll take an early lead and hold on to win.  WEST VIRGINIA

Insight Bowl - #14 Missouri Tigers v Iowa Hawkeyes:  First appearance of both the Big Ten and Big XII, who face each other three times in the bowls.  Missouri is the obvious favorite, but Iowa is traditionally a tough bowl opponent, and I can't dismiss that.  I actually think Iowa will take a fourth quarter lead, but Missouri will get into field goal range on their last drive and win the game.  MISSOURI

Wed Dec 29:
Military Bowl - East Carolina Pirates v Maryland Terrapins:  The armed forces now get a second bowl, and it doesn't even feature a team with military history.  Couldn't they have gotten Texas A&M for this game?  They didn't, and they match a fiesty yet inconsistent Pirates team against a Maryland squad that continually improved as the season progressed.  They nearly had a chance to play for the ACC title, after all!  That momentum will help them, although the Pirates defense will keep this game scoreless until late in the second quarter.  MARYLAND

Texas Bowl - Illinois Fighting Illini v Baylor Bears:  Basically a home game for Baylor, nearly everyone is picking the Bears.  I beg to differ, though.  Yes, the Bears started the season strongly, but they seemed to lose steam after their loss to Texas Tech.  They barely beat conference doormat Colorado, barely beat Kansas State (who were down this year), and barely beat Texas (who were REALLY down this year!).  They were then blown away in their final three games.  Illinois played in the highly-competitive Big Ten conference, and had some impressive wins.  I have to go for the upset here, especially since the Bears have not seem a defense as fast as Illinois' this season.  That fast defense will frustrate Baylor's offense, allowing Illinois the chance to win.  ILLINOIS

Alamo Bowl - Arizona Wildcats v #12 Oklahoma State Cowboys:  Aside from the Las Vegas Bowl and Hawaii Bowl, this has the best chance to be the worst blowout of the bowl games so far.  The Cowboys offense is awesome; too strong for the Wildcats defense.  Arizona's offense doesn't move well enough to keep up with Oklahoma State on EITHER side of the ball.  OKLAHOMA STATE

Thurs Dec 30:
Armed Forces Bowl - Army Black Knights v SMU Mustangs:  Army hasn't been to a bowl game in twenty years, and they have a chance to win this bowl game dedicated to our nation's armed forces.  SMU has some tricks up their sleeves, so I'll pick them, but Army has their version of the spread working fairly well, so don't be surprised if the Knights bring the Armed Forces trophy home to West Point.  SMU

Pinstripe Bowl - Kansas State Wildcats v Syracuse Orangemen:  Kansas State had a down year from normal, but the entire Big East was down.  Syracuse has a good record thanks to their conference record, but Kansas State earned their record against some harsh opponents.  KANSAS STATE

Music City Bowl - North Carolina Tar Heels v Tennessee Volunteers:  The Vols had a tough schedule, but they finished strongly thanks to games against weaker teams.  I think their earlier challenges toughened them, so they should be in better position to win this game.  TENNESSEE

Holiday Bowl - #17 Nebraska Cornhuskers v Washington Huskies:  Holiday Bowls are frequently offensive showdowns, and this has the makings of another.  Although Jake Locker and Washington were disappointing during the season, I think they'll get it together for the bowl game.  They did last year.  This will be an excellent offensive showdown, but Nebraska's defense will provide just enough deterrent to Locker to allow Nebraska to prevail.  NEBRASKA