Thursday, December 2, 2010

NFL Week 13 picks

Still five weeks to play and nobody has clinched a playoff berth.  Some teams are clearly out of the playoff hunt at this time, although Carolina is the only one mathematically eliminated.  Still, I don't think Cincinnati, Arizona, Dallas, or Detroit will be there.

Thursday night - Houston Texans at Philadelphia Eagles:  The Eagles will be hot to win after their loss to Chicago last week.  Houston's defense is good, but not good enough to seal up Vick like Chicago did.  EAGLES, 30-20

Sunday early games:
Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings:  I'll admit it, I've been very impressed with Ryan Fitzpatrick since he took over as Bills' quarterback.  The Bills have been in each of their games, and if not for a fumble-fingered overtime drop, the Bills would have upset Pittsburgh last week.  Minnesota is a team in a funk, and I don't see them getting out of it soon, despite the win last week at Washington.  I'm going for the upset here!  BILLS, 23-20

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions:  The Bears beat a quality opponent by keeping Michael Vick bottled up.  They don't have to rush the quarterback as much at Detroit, but you can bet that Chicago will add to their unbeaten division record.  BEARS, 23-17

Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins:  Here's an interesting match-up.  The Browns bring an atrocious 1-4 road record into Miami, where the Dolphins are a terrible 1-4 at home this season.  Chad Henne and the Dolphins offense has shown some life the past couple of weeks, with strong showings against Oakland and Tennessee.  The game against the Titans, in fact, was their first home win in 2010.  Jake Delhomme starts for Cleveland.  Delhomme can be dangerous, but he's still feeling out the receivers at Cleveland.  I like Miami to win their second home game of the season.  DOLPHINS, 23-21

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs:  Grudge match!  Chiefs Head Coach Todd Haley felt that Broncos Head Coach Josh McDaniels ran up the score against the Chiefs in their rivalry game last month.  While that is a common claim in college, the NFL has different rules.  You don't pay the starting players big bucks to sit on the bench, unless you've already clinched a playoff berth and you're resting them for the postseason.  Still, Haley refused to shake McDaniels' hand, and I'm sure he's come up with a devious and varied offensive plan against a Broncos defense clearly playing confused recently.  CHIEFS, 34-23

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans:  Despite the problems in Dallas and Minnesota this season, I don't think there's a team in more disarray right now than the Tennessee Titans.  There seems to be an unbridgeable rift between Vince Young and Head Coach Jeff Fisher, and team management is not backing Fisher.  Young has had another of his frequent breakdowns, but the front office still supports him.  Fisher doesn't, and put a relative amateur in charge of a suddenly anemic Titans offense.  Given their porous defense, they could be throwing away their playoff chances, which are pretty good right now, given how every team in the AFC South is within a game of each other.  The Jags hope to pull away with a win here.  JAGS, 26-16

New Orleans Saints at Cincinnati Bengals:  While they haven't always looked stupendous, the defending Super Champs are admirably holding their own this season.  They are letting divisional rival Atlanta, with their unbeaten home record and exciting QB "Matty Ice", command the headlines while they rack up victories.  Their offense has been sporadic, but their defense is stout.  That stout defense will frustrate a sputtering Bengals offense, giving the Saints their ninth win of the season.  SAINTS, 30-17

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers:  San Francisco's defense showed up in Arizona, but they were assisted by a Cardinals' meltdown.  I don't think they'll fare as well against a hungry Packers team, eager to erase the near-miss in Atlanta.  PACK, 26-19

Washington Redskins at New York Giants:  The Redskins talk a big talk, but they haven't been consistently backing it up this season.  The Giants offense has been sporadic, but the defense is there, and that should be enough to halt the Redskins.  GIANTS, 24-13

Sunday late games:
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Bucs:  The Falcons are the best team in the NFC, and they have the power to prove it.  Bolstered by an unbeaten 6-0 home record, the Falcons nevertheless are a force on the road, too.  The Bucs have sputtered offensively, while the Falcons successfully engineering scoring drives.  Even with a good defense, the Bucs will need more support from their offense than they will get.  FALCONS, 27-20

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks:  Seattle isn't having a stellar year, but they certainly have the firepower to clobber the league-worst Panthers.  SEAHAWKS, 26-17

Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts:  Indy hopes to pull away in the AFC South.  Fortunately, they get the wobbly Cowboys at home.  While a poor road team this season, the Colts are 4-1 at home and produce nearly twice the offensive yardage.  Despite a patchwork of receivers, Peyton Manning still finds targets.  COLTS, 27-17

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers:  San Diego's offense is back on track; in fact, Phillip Rivers has been the highest-rated quarterback in recent weeks.  They should overpower a Raiders defense that is good, but not spectacular.  CHARGERS, 30-21

St Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals:  Derek Anderson is getting defensive, resulting in his postgame rant last week.  If he doesn't cool down and get it together, the Cards will have a rough stretch to finish the season.  That'll start with this game, as Sam Bradford has the Rams moving; he registered his first 300-yard game as a pro last week.  As he learns more and gains more confidence, this team could get deadly.  Right now, they're at least deadly enough to beat Arizona.  RAMS, 26-13

Sunday night game - Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens:  The Steelers escaped with an overtime win against Buffalo last week due to a fluke dropped pass.  I think that shows that they are ripe for an upset.  They travel to division rival Baltimore this week, and each team has the same record.  Pittsburgh has a slightly better points margin over Baltimore, and bring a phenomenal 5-1 road record into Baltimore, but the Ravens defense is nearly as stout as Pittsburgh's, and the Ravens have an unbeaten 5-0 home record this season.  I like the Ravens' chances here.  RAVENS, 21-20

Monday Night Football -- New York Jets at New England Patriots:  The winner will be the best team in the AFC and hold a game lead in the AFC East.  I think each of these teams are playoff bound, but who will win here?  These bouts are always intense, and will go down to the bitter end.  I think it'll depend upon who has the ball last, and how well they can move it down the field.  I think Bill Belichick is excellent at managing time, and the Pats will probably have the final possession.  The Jets defense is intense, but I think Tom Brady and company gets the ball in field goal range, and wins the game on a last-second field goal.  PATS, 27-24

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