NFL Week 14 picks

We're in the home stretch.  With four games remaining, division races become important, so I'll cover that before the picks each week, as many division games remain on teams' schedules.

AFC East:  The Pats hold a one-game edge over the Jets.  The Dolphins have a mathematical chance, but they'd need to win out.  The Bills are out of the playoff hunt.
AFC North: The Steelers lead Baltimore by a game.  The Browns have a very slim chance, but a loss kills that.  The Bengals are out of the playoff hunt.
AFC South:  The Jaguars lead the division by a game, but everyone is still possible to win this division.
AFC West:  The Chiefs lead by two games.  A win this week, and a loss by Oakland, gives them the title.  The Chargers have a chance if they beat the Chiefs this week.  Denver is out of the race.
NFC East:  Philly and the Giants are tied at the top.  Both Washington and Dallas have outside chances.
NFC North:  Chicago leads the Pack by a game.  The Vikings still have a slim chance, but a loss removes that.  Detroit is out of the playoff hunt.
NFC South:  Atlanta leads the Saints by a game.  Tampa Bay still has a chance, both for the title and a wildcard spot.  Carolina is long out of the running.
NFC West:  This one is still ups for grabs from everyone, including Arizona.  The winner of this division might have a losing record.

Thursday Night - Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans:  The Colts are struggling without a running game and with half of their receivers new to the system.  Tennessee's defense is strong enough to push the Colts like Dallas did, but their offense isn't quite as good.  I think the Titans will fall short.  COLTS, 24-23

Sunday early games:
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers:  Atlanta locks a playoff spot with a win.  They shouldn't have any problem clinching that.  FALCONS, 27-13

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers:  Pittsburgh has been a better road team than home team this season, but this one should be a strong home win.  The Bengals are having trouble making use of their talented receiving corps, and the Steelers defense will make life even tougher.  STEELERS, 23-13

Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills:  Cleveland still has playoff hopes.  The Bills might want to play spoiler, but I think the Browns' defense will keep things close enough for Delhomme to pull off a late win.  BROWNS, 24-20

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions:  Knowing the Bears face New England, the Pack know they have a chance to even things up with their division rival.  That means they'll pound Detroit.  PACK, 27-16

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings:  It looks like Favre's streak of consecutive starts is over.  Tavaris Jackson will take the reins, but the Giants' defense is not a way to start for the first time in over two years.  GIANTS, 23-13

Oakland Raiders at Jacksonville Jaguars:  Oakland actually has a better points margin than Jacksonville, but the Jags have done an excellent job of winning close games.  They tend to control the ground game, and that will continue in this game.  JAGS, 24-23

Tampa Bay Bucs at Washington Redskins:  Josh Freeman and company have lost two in a row, but that streak should end.  Washington is a team in disarray, and the Bucs will take advantage of that.  BUCS, 26-16

Sunday late games:
Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals:  For the first time in three years, I'm taking a NO PICK on this one.  The teams are closely matched, and frankly, this game won't matter to either of them.

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers:  The Chiefs are the only team who could clinch a division title this week.  They need a win to do that.  San Diego doesn't want to be dropped just yet, so they'll fight to stay in, but in the end I think the Chiefs defense will prevail.  CHIEFS, 24-20

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets:  The Jets will pretty well clinch a playoff spot with a win.  That should be possible, as the injury-plagued Dolphins won't be that much of a threat.  JETS, 23-10

New England Patriots at Chicago Bears:  As much as I love my Bears, the Pats are too tough for them.  PATS, 31-13

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers:  Troy Smith is a step up from Alex Smith, but the 49ers' offense is still struggling.  Their defense is good, so they'll stay close to Seatlle, but I think the Seahawks will prove just too much for them.  SEAHAWKS, 17-13

St Louis Rams at New Orleans Saints:  I think the Rams will make this contest closer than the Saints would like, but the defending Super Bowl champs have enough tools to win their tenth game.  SAINTS, 23-20

Sunday Night - Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys:  Jason Garrett has the Cowboys moving in the right direction, but Philly is just a bit too much offensively for them.  EAGLES, 27-20

Monday Night Football - Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans:  Houston's defense will make this a battle, but the Ravens will end up with the victory.  RAVENS, 16-13