NFL Week 16 picks

The playoff picture is getting a bit clearer, but there are still plenty of spots to determine.  That'll be discussed later in this blog; first, let's pick the games.

Thursday night - Carolina Panthers at Pittsburgh Steelers:  The Panthers may have won their second game last week, but they won't get two in a row.  The Steelers' defense is one of the best in the league, and Carolina's offense just isn't firing.  STEELERS, 27-10

Sunday early games:
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns:  Old Browns v new Browns, and the old ones have almost always prevailed.  That'll be so again, as the Ravens push to keep pace with the Steelers.  RAVENS, 27-20

Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals:  The Cowboys look better with Jason Garrett in charge.  If he hasn't pissed off Jerry Jones, he should be hired as the permanent head coach.  Even without that vote of confidence, the Cardinals' offense is sputtering and pathetic, which gives Dallas the chance to win their sixth game, and the fourth under Garrett's short reign.  COWBOYS, 27-14

Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins:  Despite having a three-game advantage in record, I like Detroit's chances to keep this game close.  However, like they often do, I think they'll fall short in the fourth quarter.  DOLPHINS, 23-20

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills:  The Patriots can get a double dip with a single win.  By beating the Bills, they both win the division and the first seed in the conference, guaranteeing home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  That will be incentive enough for the Patriots to win.  PATS, 34-20

New York Jets at Chicago Bears:  Before the Steelers game, I thought the Jets would miss the playoffs, figuring their last two games demonstrated a collapse of their offense.  They turned it around the Steelers, and actually beat that defense on their own turf.  Now the Jets travel to Soldier Field.  While I would love to pick my Bears, I fear the Jets woke up and got moving.  However, their special teams is still a weak point, so the Bears could pull out a win with great field position from kick returns.  JETS, 27-23

San Francisco 49ers at St Louis Rams:  The 49ers need a win to stay in contention for the division title, but I don't think that'll happen.  The Rams are a new team with Sam Bradford, and they might win the division.  RAMS, 24-20

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs:  KC needs to win both of their games to clinch a playoff spot.  Tennessee is out of the race, but playing spoiler fits their style.  They got it together to pester Houston last week, but the Chiefs are entirely different.  Most specifically - they haven't lost at home all season.  CHIEFS, 27-23

Washington Redskins at Jacksonville Jaguars:  Jacksonville is in a heated battle for the division title with Indianapolis.  The Colts offense fired last week, but with Austin Collie out with injury, the Jags hope the Raiders can help them.  The Jags will certainly do their part, as they are the most successful running team in the league, and the Redskins' defensive line isn't great.  JAGS, 26-23

Sunday late games:
Houston Texans at Denver Broncos:  It has been a disasterous season for Denver.  Houston might have relaxed if they had beaten Tennessee, but that loss has made them mad.  The Texans' defense will pester Orton and the Broncos all game.  TEXANS, 27-23

Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders:  Collie's out, but Manning is starting to find the timing with the young guys.  The Raiders can bring pressure, though, so this might be a disaster.  The Raiders' offense isn't great, though, and the Colts' defense has been forcing some turnovers.  I think this one will be won on a late field goal following a Raiders turnover.  COLTS, 27-24

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers:  Aaron Rogers will start, but the banged-up Packers have a tough challenge against the physical Giants.  Worse, the Giants have something to prove, as the New York press has been charring them after giving up four fourth quarter touchdowns to the Eagles last week.  An angry bunch of Giants is never a good sight for opponents, and now there's too much at stake for New York.  GIANTS, 27-24

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals:  Cincy's offense has been atrocious, and a fissure between Ochocinco and Coach Lewis won't help matters.  San Diego has to play without Antonio Gates, but they should still be able to win.  CHARGERS, 27-17

Seattle Seahawks at Tampa Bay Bucs:  Seattle needs a win to keep pace with St Louis, but the Bucs are challenging for a wildcard spot.  The Bucs were shocked by Detroit last week; they won't let Seattle pull off the upset.  BUCS, 23-17

Sunday night - Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles:  Michael Vick will run all over the Vikings' defense, and the Eagles will crush Joe Webb, especially without Adrian Petersen.  EAGLES, 30-17

Monday Night Football - New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons:  Like New England, Atlanta can win the trifecta with week, clinching the division title and the Number One seed in the NFC with the win.  Throw in an unbeaten home record this season, and the defending Super Bowl Champs look to lose two in a row for the second time this season.  FALCONS, 31-23

Division and Playoff races:
AFC EAST:  The Pats seal the title with a win OR a Jets loss.  That seems likely to happen between the two remaining weeks.
AFC NORTH:  Pittsburgh and Baltimore are tied, but the Steelers hold the tiebreaker.  This one will come down to the wire, though. 
AFC SOUTH:  Indy and Jacksonville are tied.  The Colts hold the tiebreaker, so this one will also be decided next week.
AFC WEST:  KC leads by a game, but it's not a lock.  San Diego could leap frog over them if the Chargers win out and KC loses one.  Worse, the Raiders hold the tiebreaker over BOTH, so if they all finish 9-7, the Raiders gain the crown.
AFC WILDCARDS:  Jacksonville and San Diego could get a wildcard spot, but the Jets and Ravens would have to lose both of their games for that to happen.  Pittsburgh has already clinched the playoffs, so if Baltimore wins the AFC North, the Steelers have one wildcard spot.  A Jets win and Ravens win guarantees them postseason spots. 
NFC EAST:  Philly leads by a game, and they hold the tiebreaker.  The Giants would need to win both games and Philly lose both games.  An Eagles win clinched the title.
NFC NORTH:  The ONLY division title clinched belongs to Chicago!  The Bears are playoff-bound, regardless of how they finish.  They can clinch a first week bye if they win out, or if Philly loses.
NFC SOUTH:  Atlanta wins the division, and home field advantage, with a win.  The Saints have a slim chance -- they'd have to win both of their games and the Falcons lose next week.
NFC WEST:  The winner of this division might have a losing record.  The Rams and Seattle are vying for the title, and San Fran still has an outside chance.
NFC WILDCARDS:  The Saints and Giants clinch wildcard spots with a win.  The Saints could lose both games and still make it if Green Bay and Tampa Bay both lose a game.