NFL 2011 Week 15 picks

Saturday games begin this week, competing with college bowl games.  It's the fun time of the year.  Playoff slots are starting to fill, too.

Top Ten teams
1.  Green Bay Packers (13-0) : They slaughtered the Raiders as that unbeaten season looms larger
2.  New Orleans Saints (10-3) : The Saints clinched a playoff spot as they are battling San Fran for the second seed
3.  San Francisco 49ers (10-3) : Surprised by the Cards, the 49ers are now playing catch-up for a playoff bye
4 (tie).  New England Patriots (10-3) : They got a scare against the Redskins, but the Pats clinched the playoffs and maintained their lead over the Jets
4 (tie).  Houston Texans (10-3) : The Texans clinched their first division title ever and continue to battle for home field advantage
6.  Baltimore Ravens (10-3) : They maintain their edge over Pittsburgh and the rest of the conference
7.  Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3) : The Steelers are still a tough team, with the toughest defense in the AFC, and they clinched the playoffs this week, too
8.  Detroit Lions (8-5) : They regained their winning ways, but it wasn't pretty
9.  New York Jets (8-5) : Still a threat and in the playoff hunt
10. Chicago Bears (7-6) : They may have opened the door to another Tebow comeback, but they did show that they can move the ball with Hanie

Division standings
1.  NFC North : Three top ten teams make them strong, but the Bears are falling and the Vikings are dragging them down
2.  AFC East : The Dolphins are improving, as are the Jets.
3.  AFC North : As Cincy slides, so does the division
4.  NFC South : Atlanta is improving, so the strength of the Saints elevates them
5.  NFC East : Philly won big and New York ended their losing streak.  Is an upward swing on the rise?
6.  AFC South : Houston holds position while Tennessee holds their own
7.  NFC West : Seattle looked good and Arizona upset San Fran, so the division is moving up
8.  AFC West : San Diego finally has a positive point differential, but this division is still weak

Playoff race
AFC: Houston won the first division title of the conference.  The Pats, Ravens, and Steelers all clinched playoff spots.  Denver leads the West and the Jets lead the race for the sixth spot
NFC: Green Bay clinches the top seed and the Saints clinch a playoff spot.  The 49ers loss creates a dead heat for second seed.  Dallas and the Giants are now tied for the East title.  Detroit and Atlanta lead the wildcard race.

Thursday game:
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-9) at Atlanta Falcons (8-5) : The Falcons maintain their hold on the NFC wildcard race with a win here.  The Jags can have flashes of brilliance, but Matt Ryan and the Falcons are starting to gel again.  FALCONS, 24-16

Saturday's game:
Dallas Cowboys (7-6) at Tampa Bay Bucs (3-10):  Dallas doesn't have to worry too much about their traditional December collapse, because the Bucs have already collapsed.  Dallas gets to take a half game lead on the Giants.  COWBOYS, 27-17

Sunday early games:
Carolina Panthers (4-9) at Houston Texans (10-3):  It's time for Cam Newton to face a REAL NFL defense.  This one might be closer than Houston would like, but TJ Yates is improving, and their crushing defense will slow the Newton express.  TEXANS, 27-20

Ciucinnati Bengals (7-6) at St Louis Rams (2-11):  Ah, the Bengals get to stop their downward skid with an easy game against a struggling team.  I don't think Sam Bradford's injury will be completely healed, so he will once again swap time with Kellen Clements.  Cincy's defense should bleed less this game, as there is less to stop.  Andy Dalton and the offense should have an easy time slicing through the weak Rams defense.  BENGALS, 30-13

Green Bay Packers (13-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-8):  They have clinched the top seed in the NFC, so one wonders if they will slack off to prevent injury.  It wasn't THAT long ago that the Pack failed to reach the playoffs due to late season injuries, so they know the danger.  Fortuntately, they won't have to worry too much against the Chiefs.  They are weak enough that the Pack can put in the second string in the second half and still win this game.  PACK, 27-17

Miami Dolphins (4-9) at Buffalo Bills (5-8):  Miami is starting to look good, especially on defense.  The offense took a step up when JP Losman stepped in for Matt Moore.  The Dolphins might play him this week, as he knows his old team well.  I think the Bills' slide will contineu.  I'm not even sure a Dolphins victory would constitute an upset at this point.  DOLPHINS, 26-20

New Orleans Saints (10-3) at Minnesota Vikings (2-11):  The Saints are chasing San Fran for the first week playoff bye, and they see a chance.  With the 49ers playing the Steelers on Monday Night Football, the Saints know a win here gives them an edge.  That win shouldn't be difficult, as the Vikings defense is porous.  The Saints will allow the Vikings to score, but not enough to keep pace with the Saints.  SAINTS, 34-20

Seattle Seahawks (6-7) at Chicago Bears (7-6):  The Seahawks looked good last week, but they have rarely strung two good weeks together this season.  Furthermore, the Bears know they let last week's game slip away, as they led 10-0 in the fourth quarter.  With Hanie starting to look better and Marion Barber getting comfortable in his starting role, I think the Bears bear down and win this thing.  BEARS, 20-17

Tennessee Titans (7-6) at Indianapolis Colts (0-13):  A winless season for the Colts is starting to seem eminent.  Tennessee may have lost their shot at competing for the divistion title, but the playoffs are still in reach, so they will play hard against a hapless Colts team.  TITANS, 26-13

Washington Redskins (4-9) at New York Giants (7-6):  Both teams woke up last week.  Which one stays awake?  The Giants are battling for the division title, so they certainly have more incentive.  Eli has been having a good year; I think he can keep it up.  GIANTS, 27-20

Sunday late games:
Cleveland Browns (4-9) at Arizona Cardinals (6-7):  The Cards rose again last week as Kevin Kolb showed why the Cards wanted him.  With Cleveland struggling, the Cards have a chance to impress again.  CARDS, 20-13

Detroit Lions (8-5) at Oakland Raiders (7-6):  Oakland just suffered a tough loss to the Packers, so they want revenge on the NFC North.  The Lions are finding their rhythm again, so that will be a tall order.  With the Lions chasing a long-awaited playoff berth, they have even more incentive to play hard.  LIONS, 28-23

New England Patriots (10-3) at Denver Broncos (8-5):  With the Patriots' patchwork defense, they have to be concerned about another Tebow comeback.  The Pats will take an early lead and hold it into ihe fourth, but that's when Tebow is most dangerous.  He could do it again, but I'll pick the Pats.  If anyone can keep his team conscious of the dangers of letting Tebow loose, it's Bill Belichick.  PATS, 30-23

New York Jets (8-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-8):  The Jets are chasing a playoff spot.  For the Eagles, it's pretty much over.  They aren't the type to give up, but they haven't been playing especially hard this season, and I see no reason for that to change.  JETS, 23-17

Sunday night:
Baltimore Ravens (10-3) at San Diego Chargers (6-7):  The Chargers offense is back on a roll, but they face a real challenge in the Ravens defense.  The Chargers are strong enough to move the ball, but the Ravens will slow them down, and stuff them on some trips across midfield.  The Chargers defense is somewhat lacking, so the Ravens will get opportunities to score.  The lead may change a few times in this game, but the visitors defense will win out in the end.  RAVENS, 27-20

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL -- Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3) at San Francisco 49ers (10-3):  This might be the best game of the week.  Two powerful defenses clash in what will be a slow, grinding game of yards.  With Big Ben's status questionable, and Frank Gore the principal gainer for the 49ers, this will be a ground game.  If San Fran hadn't been upset last week, I'd give the edge to the Steelers.  However, the 49ers are desperate to win, especially since the Saints will likely have a half game lead on the playoff bye at the start of this game.  49ERS, 20-17