Welcome to the first of two columns where I pick the NCAA bowl winners. In this one, I cover all of the games in December, except for two long-running bowls, the Sun Bowl and Liberty Bowl. Those two will be covered in the next column.
This year the bowl committees arranged some interesting matchups. I am shocked by a few things, however. I do not understand why TCU and Boise State, two Top Ten teams who have proven success in prestiguous bowls, were consigned to such minor bowls against weak opponents. It's almost like these former BCS busters were being punished. The Poinsettia Bowl and Las Vegas Bowl will be horribly one-sided affairs. So will the Hawaii Bowl, which pairs Conference USA winner Southern Miss against Nevada.
One team is only playing a bowl game due to a technicality. UCLA hs become only the second team in NCAA history with a losing record playing in a bowl game. At 6-7, they should not be playing in a bowl, despite being bowl eligible. They played in the Pac-12 Championshp simply because USC was on probation. They lost that game, despite playing above themselves. There is no reason they should be playing in a bowl, other than a shortage of bowl eligible teams from the major conferences (that is why the SEC does NOT have the most bowl teams, a record they've had for the past three years). The only advantage to this situation is that Illinois has a bowl opponent they might actually beat.
NEW MEXICO BOWL -- Temple Owls (8-4) v Wyoming Cowboys (8-4): The first bowl will likely be one of the closest. These two teams are equally tough, with similar philosophies. Both teams prefer to run; Temple is simply better at it. Wyoming can put together a passing attack if necessary, while Temple is pretty much grounded. That ability may benefit Wyoming, as Temple has one of the stingiest ground defenses in the FBS. That defense gives Temple the advantage in the game. TEMPLE
IDAHO BOWL -- Ohio Bobcats (9-4) v Utah St Aggies (7-5): Ohio failed to win the MAC title, and as punishment they play one of the earliest bowls. They get Utah State, a tricky opponent who gave opponents problems throughout the season. While Utah State will have some good plays, I expect Ohio to dominate this game. OHIO
NEW ORLEANS BOWL -- San Diego State Aztecs (8-4) v Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (8-4): The Sun Belt has a tricky bowl history. Sometimes they have done well (2-0), other times terribly (0-2). This year they have three teams in the bowls, tied for the most they've ever had. They went 2-1 that year. Can they repeat, or even improve, that success? The Ragin' Cajuns were the rage in conference games, racking up a 6-2 record and, at one time, competing for the conference title. They even flirted with a Top 25 ranking. However, the Cajuns were not great out of conference, and their history of close games makes one question what would happen if they had to come from behind. I have to favor the Aztecs. SAN DIEGO STATE
ST PETERSBURG BOWL -- Florida International Golden Panthers (8-4) v Marshall Thundering Herd (6-6): We follow a Sun Belt loss with a Sun Belt win. The Golden Panthers have a strong defense and a well-balanced offense. Marshall is a streaky team that has no viable running game to fall back upon. Considering the strength of Florida International's defense, that lack of a running game will hurt Marshall. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
POINSETTIA BOWL -- #10 TCU Horned Frogs (10-2) v Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (8-4): Not much to say here. We've seen the power of TCU during the season, while Louisiana Tech did little outside of the WAC. TCU
LAS VEGAS BOWL -- Arizona State Sun Devils (6-6) v #6 Boise State Broncos (11-1): The Sun Devils had talent, but they relied too much on a struggling quarterback. Boise State has too many weapons for the Sun Devils to stop, and Arizona State is not equipped to come back from a large deficit. BOISE STATE
HAWAII BOWL -- Nevada Wolf Pack (7-5) v #14 Southern Miss Golden Eagles (11-2): I don't know why the Conference USA winner ends up here, rather than a more prestiguous bowl. I will admit, spending time in Hawaii is attractive, but Southern Miss has already been criticized by costing their conference valuable BCS money by beating Houston. I suspect the bowl representatives had already made up their minds about the Golden Eagles before the Conference USA title game, as Houston still ended up with a New Year's Day game. As a reward for costing the conference that money, Southern Miss goes to Hawaii and scores an easy win. SOUTHERN MISS
INDEPENDENCE BOWL -- Missouri Tigers (7-5) v North Carolina Tar Heels (7-5): North Carolina has an unbeaten non-conference record, but they played fairly easy opponents. I'm more impressed with the highly-ranked running game of the Tigers. Missouri is considered one of the best running teams in the nation, and that can exhaust defenses. Missouri will not have the services of Coach Gary Pinkel, who was suspended after a DUI arrest. That might give North Carolina an advantage, but the Tigers are dedicating this game to their beloved coach. MISSOURI
LITTLE CAESARS DETROIT BOWL -- Western Michigan Broncos (7-6) v Purdue Boilermakers (6-6): In what is practically a home game for the Broncos, they face their fourth Big Ten team in 2011. They lost the previous three, so you'd think they'd be concerned. However, Purdue's stats are not good. Yes, they were able to win a couple of games they weren't expected to win, but overall Purdue was not a great team in the Big Ten. WESTERN MICHIGAN
BELK BOWL -- Louisville Cardinals (7-5) v NC State Wolfpack (7-5): Louisville came from nowhere to win a share of the Big East title. They are perfectly equipped for a bowl win. They struggled early, but came together to win five of their last six games. Those games pitted Louisville against their toughest opponents (except Cincy, who beat them right before that streak), and they stepped up. How did they succeed in those games? A strong defense. That's a great tool to have in a bowl game, especially against a team that wins as much on emotion as talent. If that defense shuts down the NC State offense, expect the Wolfpack to lose their heads, rack up penalties, and basically give the game to Louisville. LOUISVILLE
MILITARY BOWL -- Toledo Rockets (8-4) v Air Force Falcons (7-5): Let's face it, the Rockets are in a "no win" situation. This is the Military Bowl, so the service academy is the emotional favorite. Also, their coach already has his next job sealed - coaching my Alma Mater, the Illinois Fighting Illini. What could inspire the Rockets to win? I think the players want to send their coach out with a win, especially in recognition of what he's done for them. In what was supposed to be a rebuilding year last year, Coach Beckman led them to an 8-4 record. They were supposed to improve this year, so some people consider their 8-4 record a disappointment. The players don't want this "disappointment" to extend to the bowl game. While I'm sure they will be booed every time they score, as the largely military audience will be rooting for Air Force, the Top Ten offense of Toledo will simply score too much for the more conservative Falcons to overcome. TOLEDO
HOLIDAY BOWL -- California Golden Bears (7-5) v Texas Longhorns (7-6): The Holiday Bowl typically features lots of scoring, and this year may be no exception. While their defense is solid, Texas and California both have tools to score, and score often. Texas prefers to run while Cal prefers to pass. Texas' Case McCoy has had a bit of an interception problem in later games, but Texas comes back well from those. Texas' record is influenced by huge losses to four Top 25 teams. I like Texas' chances to succeed here. TEXAS
CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL -- Florida State Seminoles (8-4) v #19 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-4): This is a great matchup of two historic teams. Florida State has a great record in bowl games, but they struggle against strong programs. Penn State embarrased them two years ago, and now Notre Dame has the chance. Notre Dame lost only two games by more than three points, and both of those were to Top 25 Pac-12 teams (USC and Stanford). Both of those had powerful offenses, a feature lacking in the Seminoles. Florida State has won with defensive battles, but Notre Dame's defense isn't bad, either. NOTRE DAME
ALAMO BOWL -- Washington Huskies (7-5) v #25 Baylor Bears (9-3): With the Heisman Trophy in hand, Robert Griffin III gets a chance to win this game, and win it big. This will likely be his last college game, so you know he wants it to count. His passing accuracy and arm speed will play havok against one of the worst defenses in the country. This one will be decided early in the second quarter, as Baylor will open a four score lead before halftime. BAYLOR
ARMED FORCES BOWL -- BYU Cougars (9-3) v Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (8-4): Apparently the Military Bowl had to be created because the Armed Forces Bowl decided not to invite a service academy. By record, these teams seem closely matched. If you observe their respective opponents, though, you realize that BYU faced tougher opponents, and is a much tougher team. BYU
PINSTRIPE BOWL -- Rutgers Scarlet Knights (8-4) v Iowa State Cyclones (6-6): The tricky and unpredictable Iowa State Cyclones travel half the country to face Jersey-based Rutgers in favorable territory. Iowa State is known for their shocking wins over then-ranked Texas Tech and Top Five Oklahoma State. However, a more interesting fact is Rutgers and Iowa State's performances against a common opponent. Both teams faced UConn this season. Rutgers lost by twenty points, Iowa State won by four. The Cyclones didn't lose a single non-conference game. Iowa State's losses are all to Top 25 (or nearly so, in Missouri's case) teams, while Rutgers struggled against weaker teams. Upsets happen in bowl games, and I'm picking one here. IOWA STATE
MUSIC CITY BOWL -- Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-6) v Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6-6): For this game, I am also influenced by strength of schedule. They play in the SEC, recently the toughest conference in the country (although not this year -- the Big XII was). They beat all of the non-conference opponents they faced. Their losses were all to ranked teams, except for a close contest against Auburn. Wake ended the season with a HUGE loss to SEC Vanderbilt. I have to favor the Bulldogs. MISSISSIPPI STATE
INSIGHT BOWL -- Iowa Hawkeyes (7-5) v #15 Oklahoma Sooners (9-3): The bowl representatives didn't tip the scales against the Big Ten as much as they typically do, but this matchup is definitely designed to embarrass the Big Ten. They pit the offensively-challenged Hawkeyes against one of the strongest offenses in the country. This one won't be pretty for Big Ten fans like myself. OKLAHOMA
TEXAS BOWL -- Texas A&M Aggies (6-6) v Northwestern Wildcats (6-6): The Wildcats enter a hostile environment, as the Aggies are clearly the favorites. The Wildcats can shine in bowl games, and their defense might give the Aggies fits, but the Wildcats have faded in the fourth quarter this season, which should allow the Aggies the chance to come back and win. TEXAS A&M
FIGHT HUNGER BOWL -- Illinois Fighting Illini (6-6) v UCLA Bruins (6-7): I don't like the idea of a team with a losing record playing in a bowl game, so I'd want the Bruins to lose no matter who they play. They face my Illini, so I further want them to lose. Clearly Illinois has the better talent, but their predictable offensive scheme allowed teams to know what they were going to do. That's how they could start 6-0 and lose their next six games. UCLA played well in the Pac-12, but stunk out of conference. That cost Rick Neuheisel his job. Ron Zook is also out. Both teams are led by interim coaches, as their replacements are coaching in other bowl games. I like the fact that Illinois did NOT choose offensive coordinator Paul Petrino to coach this game, choosing instead defensive coordinator Vic Koenning. The defense was the strong part of Illinois' team this season, and Koenning can now veto the predictability of Petrino's game plan. That should give the edge to Illinois. ILLINOIS
CHICK-FIL-A BOWL -- Virginia Cavaliers (8-4) v Auburn Tigers (7-5): Before my analysis, let me reveal two pertinent facts: I do not like the Auburn Tigers, and I've been in Virginia's corner all season. Auburn's reputation has been built on defense, but their defense is down a bit this year. Auburn is cocky enough to believe that, because they play in the SEC, teams from other conferences are beneath them. As I've already stated, the SEC was NOT the top conference this season; that honor goes to the Big XII. Yes, two SEC teams may be playing for the BCS title, but overall the Big XII had more Top 25 teams, and had better overall records. My God, only ONE team in the Big XII had a losing record! Virginia will not be overwlemed by playing an SEC team. Without the advantage of such nervousness, Auburn doesn't have even to get them past Virginia. VIRGINIA
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment