The playoff picture is clearing up, Green Bay lost their first game the same week Indy wins their first, and the league plays mostly on Saturday this week, giving their players Christmas Day off. Only Chicago has to travel to play an away game Christmas night, and they don't travel far to face division rival Green Bay.
Top Ten teams
1. Green Bay Packers : Despite a loss, the Pack are still the most dangerous team in the league
2. New Orleans Saints : Right now, this team has the most dangerous offense in the league
3. San Francisco 49ers : And this team has the toughest defense
4. New England Patriots : The most ingenious and innovative coach lives here
5. Houston Texans : TJ Yates has kept this team on track for the playoffs, establishing a 3-2 record since he took over. He's doing better than Caleb Hanie, which is why Hanie won't be starting anymore
6. Baltimore Ravens : A powerful team who is chasing Houston for second place in the AFC
7. Pittsburgh Steelers : Even with a hurt QB, the Steelers continue to charge
8. Detroit Lions : The Lions squeezed out a win, and remain ahead of Atlanta
9. Atlanta Falcons : The Falcons can see a playoff spot
10. Dallas Cowboys : Still leading the NFC East, a win this week gives them a playoff spot
Division rankings
1. NFC North : The Bears and Vikings are struggling, but Detroit's winning streak keeps them on top
2. AFC East : A close contest with the AFC North, the East has teams clustered closer together, despite the Bills' long losing streak
3. AFC North : Cincy won, so this division is fighting for second place
4. NFC South : New Orleans and Atlanta lead this division strongly
5. NFC East : Not a great week for this division
6. NFC West : Seattle's three-game winning streak boosts this division
7. AFC South : Indy's win helped
8. AFC West : This division has such a gap that they should remain on the bottom the rest of the season
Playoff race
AFC: New England wins the East and leads in the race for home field advantage. Baltimore, Pitt, and Houston all trail by one. Baltimore still holds the tiebreaker in the ever-close AFC North race. Denver leads the West by one game. Cincy and the Jets are competing for the sixth playoff spot, although Tennessee, Oakland, and San Diego are chasing them for it.
NFC: Green Bay and San Fran won their divisions. New Orleans leads by two and clinches with a win over Atlanta. Dallas leads the East by a game, but things look tough. Green Bay has the top seed while New Orleans and the 49ers battle for second place. Atlanta and Detroit lead the race for the wildcard spots, and a win by each clinches it. The Bears, Giants, Seahawks, and Cards have an outside chance, but they need to win out and hope Atlanta and Detroit loses both of their remaining games -- such a scenario seems unlikely.
Thursday game
Houston Texans (10-4) at Indianapolis Colts (1-13): The Colts won last week, but I don't think they'll win two in a row. The Texans will not rest their starters for the playoffs, as they are battling for a bye week. That makes their defense too strong for the struggling Colts offense to overcome. The Colts defense isn't great, either, and Yates has shown tremendous ability to move the ball. TEXANS, 27-17
Saturday early games:
Arizona Cardinals (7-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-6): Both teams still have playoff aspirations, but the Bengals have a better shot. They also have the better offense, although the Cards have been known to put together some strong games. The Bengals have gotten out of their slump, and are now challenging for the second and last wildcard spot. I think Kolb and company will give them a tough time, but the Bengals should be able to pull this one out. BENGALS, 23-20
Cleveland Browns (4-10) at Baltimore Ravens (10-4): The Ravens know they have to keep winning if they want to win the division; that tiebreaker only works if they end up with as many wins as the Steelers. With Pittsburgh facing the lowly Rams this week, the Ravens won't let up. They have typically owned these "old Browns versus new Browns" games, and I think they will again. RAVENS, 23-16
Denver Broncos (8-6) at Buffalo Bills (5-9): The Broncos win streak ended, but mainly because they went away from their game plan. They may return to it for this game, but I'm sure they'll even fall behind too much. The Bills offense has been sputtering badly, and they can't even blame that on injuries. The Broncos need a win and losses by both Oakland and San Diego to win the division. I'm not sure they'll get all of that, but a win here should be likely. BRONCOS, 27-23
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-10) at Tennessee Titans (7-7): Tennessee still has remote playoff chances, but they need to win out. They should be able to win here. TITANS, 23-16
Miami Dolphins (5-9) at New England Patriots (11-3): The Patriots are chasing home field advantage, so they won't slack off in this game. The Dolphins pulled out a win last week, but their play has been too inconsistent to believe they can pull off this upset. PATS, 30-20
Minnesota Vikings (2-12) at Washington Redskins (5-9): You know, if the Colts can win another game, the Vikings might have a shot at Andrew Luck. They like Christian Ponder, though, and it's not Ponder's fault that the team has struggled so mightily this season. The defense hasn't been able to stop a fly, and Adrian Peterson isn't moving very quickly. Rex Grossman played against the Vikings enough to know how to read their defense, and they aren't fast enough to fluster him. REDSKINS, 27-21
New York Giants (7-7) at New York Jets (8-6): This game could go either way. Both offenses can (and have at different times this season) sputter, and neither defense has shown the type of strength expected from them. Technically, this is a home game for both of them. I'll favor the Jets just because they might get nastier (which can be helpful when you are chasing a playoff berth), but don't be surprised if the Giants win. JETS, 17-16
Oakland Raiders (7-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-8): The Chiefs knocked the Packers of their unbeaten pedestal; will they suffer from an emotional letdown? Orton has provided a great spark to this team, helping interim coach Romeo Crennel to his first win leading the Chiefs. He might do it again against the Raiders, likely knocking them out of the playoff hunt. I'll pick the Raiders because they can be nasty to divisional opponents, but watch for another Orton-led victory. RAIDERS, 20-17
St Louis Rams (2-12) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4): The Steelers are battling for the division title, and they need to keep winning. That should be easy against the hapless Rams, who might find themselves in the market for Andrew Luck, especially considering that Sam Bradford has one of the worst quarterback ratings in the league. STEELERS, 20-13
Tampa Bay Bucs (3-11) at Carolina Panthers (5-9): Tampa's defense has collapsed this season. Given the number of yards that Cam Newton and company generate each game, there is no way Josh Freeman and the Bucs offense will get close enough to win. PANTHERS, 30-20
Saturday late games:
Philadelphia Eagles (6-8) at Dallas Cowboys (8-6): The Eagles would love to play spoiler, especially since a divisional win would give them the tiebreaker in a three-way tie with Dallas and the Giants for the division title. They have the tools to do it, you just wonder if they have the incentive. Philly has been playing like a team "going through the motions" nearly all season. Can they perk up now? Also, will they be assisted by a Dallas December collapse? The Cowboys seem to be successfully preventing their annual collapse this year, which is why they hold the lead in the division. If they can successfully hold it off, they should win this game. They will know if a win will clinch the division, too; if the Jets win, the Cowboys have additional incentive to win. COWBOYS, 27-23
San Diego Chargers (7-7) at Detroit Lions (8-6): Both teams are chasing playoff spots. If the Lions were still sputtering, I'd pick the Chargers easily. Now, I'm not so sure. The Chargers have STUNK on the road this season, despite winning their last road outing. Also, the Lions are perfect against the AFC. I like Detroit to win this game and clinch a playoff berth. LIONS, 27-23
San Francisco 49ers (11-3) at Seattle Seahawks (7-7): Oh brother, the 49ers better watch out! Seattle, like last year at this time, is getting hot, while the 49ers have been a bit lackluster the past couple of weeks. San Fran knows that a first week playoff bye is on the line, but Seattle still has hopes for the playoffs. Both teams have much at stake. I'll pick the 49ers, but they need to pick up the pace. 49ERS, 23-16
Sunday night:
Chicago Bears (7-7) at Green Bay Packers (13-1): The Packers perfect season has evaporated, but they won't slow down. The Bears have finally given up on Caleb Hanie, and brought back Luke McCown. McCown hasn't been playing since he was cut by Carolina in 2009. He knows Martz' system, but can he start strongly enough to keep pace with the Packers? The stingy Bears defense will help, but I think McCown will have too much to overcome to win his first start in four years. PACK, 27-20
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL -- Atlanta Falcons (9-5) at New Orleans Saints (11-3): This game has all of the excitement. The Saints clinch their division with a win, and place themselves in strong contention for a playoff bye. The Falcons can gain tiebreaker points over the Saints, trail them by only a game, and clinch a playoff berth with a win. The obstacle for Atlanta? The Saints offense. The Falcons defense isn't strong enough to stop them. The question is whether they can be slowed enough for Atlanta to keep pace. I think the Falcons might be successful early, but the Saints offense will wear down the Falcons defense, allowing the Saints to pull away in the fourth quarter. SAINTS, 30-20
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