The final week of the season, and only one playoff spot is entirely up for grabs. That's unusual. The league finishes entirely on Sunday to support the BCS bowl games.
Top Ten teams
1. Green Bay Packers (14-1) : The top team in the league relaxes this week, but they will probably stay on top
2. New Orleans Saints (12-3) : Brees has had a career season, surpassing Dan Marino's record for most passing yards in a season.
3. San Francisco 49ers (12-3) : Tightest defense in the league, they have perhaps the easiest game of the week
4. New England Patriots (12-3) : Top team in the AFC, they need a win to clinch home field advantage
5. Baltimore Ravens (11-4) : They need a win to clinch the AFC North
6. Houston Texans (10-5) : A two-game losing streak and yet this team still poses a huge threat
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-4) : Can still clinch AFC North despite two losses to the Ravens; they need some help, though
8. Detroit Lions (10-5) : They are showing force again, and could beat a resting Pack
9. Atlanta Falcons (9-6) : They made the playoffs, but they're showing some cracks
10. Dallas Cowboys (8-7) : Romo's hand injury could cause them to lose
Division rankings
1. AFC North : Despite Cleveland, this division has powerful teams; could provide both AFC wildcards
2. NFC North : Chicago's four-game slide has lowered this division
3. AFC East : With Buffalo finding their offense again, this division has no slouches; the Jets are the closest team to that
4. NFC South : With Carolina winning and scoring points, only Tampa Bay drags them down
5. NFC East : No outstanding team. You have to wonder if their division winner can win a playoff game
6. NFC West : Improvements by both Seattle and Arizona has lifted this division
7. AFC South : Indy's two-game winning streak hasn't been enough to compensate for Tennessee's sporadic performances
8. AFC West : Clearly the worst division. Despite Tebow magic, San Diego remains the only team with a positive point differential
Playoff races:
AFC: The Patriots and Texans have won their divisions. The AFC North winner will have a playoff bye, as will New England. This week determines who is first seed and second seed. Houston has clinched third seed, and the AFC West winner (which is still up in the air) has the fourth. The AFC North runner-up is fifth seed. Four teams are still contenting for the sixth slot.
New England, Baltimore, Denver, and Cincy control their own destinies. If the Pats win, they have the top seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. A Ravens win clinches the AFC North and a playoff bye. The Broncos win the AFC West with a win, and the Bengals wrap up the final playoff spot by beating Baltimore. Clearly, not all four of these can happen. A Bengals loss means they need the Jets and either the Raiders or Broncos to lose. A Broncos loss allows the Raiders a chance to win the division.
NFC: This one is fairly clear. Green Bay has the top seed, the NFC East winner is fourth seed, Detroit is fifth seed, and Atlanta is sixth seed. The only real contest is between New Orleans and San Fran for second and third seed. Here, the Saints control their destiny. A win clinches a playoff bye.
Early games:
Buffalo Bills (6-9) at New England Patriots (12-3): The Bills might have hoped that the Pats had already clinched the top seed, so they'd rest some starters. With the Pats chasing that mark, they won't show any mercy. The Bills are starting to regain their rhythm, but the Pats will knock it out of them. PATS, 34-21
Carolina Panthers (6-9) at New Orleans Saints (12-3): The Saints are playing for a playoff bye. Carolina won't make it easy, as their offense is strong, but the Saints offense is stronger. The Saints defense may have some holes, but the Panthers defense has more. SAINTS, 31-23
Chicago Bears (7-8) at Minnesota Vikings (3-12): Cutler may be healthy enough to play, but he might as well sit out. With the Bears out of playoff contention, this is a meaningless game. Besides, it seems like McCown can move the ball well enough, since the Vikings are weak. BEARS, 20-16
Detroit Lions (10-5) at Green Bay Packers (14-1): The Pack have already stated that they are resting many of their starters in the second half. That gives the Lions a chance to win this game and finish strongly (four wins) going into the playoffs. LIONS, 27-17
Indianapolis Colts (2-13) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-11): The Colts need to lose to stay in the hunt for Andrew Luck, but I don't think they will. The Colts offense is finally starting to click, while the Jags are pathetic. After 13 consecutive losses, the Colts finish with three victories. COLTS, 23-20
New York Jets (8-7) at Miami Dolphins (5-10): What a difference two weeks makes! Back then the Jets looked like a sure playoff team, having won three in a row. Miami was struggling with mediocrity. Now the Jets have imploded, and Miami is emerging. Despite their records, these two teams now have the same difference between points scored and points allowed. Miami's defense actually looks better than the Rex Ryan-run one in New York. For that reason, I have to pick Miami to upset the Jets at home and spoil any remaining playoff hopes for the Green Machine. DOLPHINS, 23-20
San Francisco 49ers (12-3) at St Louis Rams (2-13): A probable Colts victory ensures St Louis wins the right to Andrew Luck. 49ERS, 26-13
Tennessee Titans (8-7) at Houston Texans (10-5): Houston has lost two in a row. I don't think Coach Kubiak wants them to have a three-game losing streak going into the playoffs. Tennessee can surprise, but their inconsistent offense seems ripe to be ripped apart by Houston's defense. TEXANS, 23-16
Washington Redskins (5-10) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-8): Philly has their mojo back, having won three in a row after basically losing playoff candidacy at 4-8. Rex Grossman and the Redskins offense has been looking pretty good, though, so this won't be an easy game for the home team. I think the Eagles will pull off a late fourth quarter scoring drive to crack a tie game. EAGLES, 24-17
Late games:
Baltimore Ravens (11-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (9-6): Cincy needs a win to clinch the playoffs, Baltimore needs a win to clinch the division title. This is the type of contest we love to see on the last week of the season. This one is likely to be close, but the Ravens will be playing mean. They want the division title, and the playoff bye that comes with it. Andy Dalton and the Bengals will keep it close, but the tight Ravens defense will be the difference here. With projected losses by the Jets and Oakland, though, the Bengals could still make the playoffs. RAVENS, 23-20
Kansas City Chiefs (6-9) at Denver Broncos (8-7): The Chiefs have been a tough team of late, while Tebow magic has been fading. Denver needs a win to clinch the AFC West, but it certainly will not be easy. The Chiefs could pull off the upset, but I'm picking the Broncos, mainly because I don't want Oakland to win the division. BRONCOS, 20-17
Pittsburgh Steelers (11-4) at Cleveland Browns (4-11): The Steelers need two things to happen to win the division: a victory over the Browns, and a Bengals victory over the Ravens. The first one seems very likely, even if Big Ben doesn't play. After all, he missed last week and the Steelers still won. The Browns offense is spotty, and will be pestered all afternoon by the Steelers defense. While Cincy may not do their part, that game will be close enough to keep the Steelers fans' hopes alive. STEELERS, 20-10
San Diego Chargers (7-8) at Oakland Raiders (8-7): This is a tough game to pick. The Chargers stink on the road, but the Raiders haven't been great at home. The Chargers had won three of four prior to last week, while Oakland had gone 1-3 in that same span. The Chargers offense was anemic against the Lions last week, but the Raiders needed overtime to get past the surging Chiefs. This is basically a "pick-em" game. I'll choose the Chargers simply because I don't want Oakland to win. CHARGERS, 24-20
Seattle Seahawks (7-8) at Arizona Cardinals (7-8): Prior to last week's loss to the Bengals, the Cards had won four in a row. Their late season surge was reminiscent of the Seahawks last season. Seattle played San Fran close, nearly costing the 49ers a chance at a playoff bye. The Cardinals have been strong at home, which makes them an attractive pick. However, I like the job Marshawn Lynch has been doing running the ball. The Cardinals aren't too good at stopping a strong runner, so I think the Seahawks line will give Lynch enough room to get at least 120 yards, and propel the Seahawks to victory. SEAHAWKS, 23-20
Tampa Bay Bucs (3-12) at Atlanta Falcons (9-6): Nobody likes to "back in" to the playoffs, and that's just what happened for Atlanta. They want a strong victory to show they deserve the playoff spot, and the sputtering Bucs give them an excellent opportunity to do that. FALCONS, 27-17
Sunday night:
Dallas Cowboys (8-7) at New York Giants (8-7): The division title is on the line, so you know Romo will play. However, you have to wonder if his hand will slow him down. Although he did not suffer severe damage when he hit Jason Babin's helmet on Saturday, the severe swelling was a concern. The swelling has gone down, but the hand is still tender, causing some concern for the team. They return from the holidays today, so his presence and performance in practice is crucial. On the Giants side of the ball, Eli Manning seems to be regaining some of his early season form, thanks in large part to Victor Cruz. Cruz has been the receiver on a few amazing catches, including the 99-yard TD last week. If Cruz continues on form, Dallas' D can't stop them. GIANTS, 23-20
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