NFL 2011 Week 14 picks

It's time to look at the playoff picture.  I'll include that before this week's picks.

Top Ten teams
1.  Green Bay Packers (12-0) : At this point, does any team stand a chance to remove the Pack from the top spot?  Even if the Pack doesn't go unbeaten, they've established too much of a lead over any other team.
2.  New Orleans Saints (9-3) : Second best offense in the league is looking even scarier
3.  San Francisco 49ers (10-2) : Best defense in the league, and the offense is decent.  They've already won their division, and they're battling New Orleans for a bye week
4.  Houston Texans (9-3) : Fortunately, they face easy teams while TJ Yates is under center.  Their tough defense also helps
5.  New England Patriots (9-3) : They could vault over Houston this week
6.  Baltimore Ravens (9-3) : Well-rounded team that is a threat on all sides of the ball, even special teams
7.  Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3) : Only Baltimore seems to be able to crack this steel-hard team
8.  Detroit Lions (7-5) : The Lions are stumbling, and they don't have injuries as an excuse
9.  Chicago Bears (7-5) : Chris Hanie is not looking good.  Defense is tough, but the Bears need to move the ball
10. Dallas Cowboys (7-5) : Rob Ryan's defense shows cracks, so they are thankful that Romo hasn't self-destructed, as he often does at this time of the season

Divisional rankings
1.  NFC North : With three Top Ten teams, they remain on top, but the skids by Chicago and Detroit makes this division vulnerable
2.  AFC East : Without Buffalo, this division would have teams with all positive point differentials, and Buffalo's isn't too bad
3.  AFC North : Cincy's recent problems has dropped the division
4.  NFC South : Tampa is dragging them down, but the other teams have punch
5.  NFC East : Most of these teams are close in stats, but unfortunately those stats don't look too good
6.  AFC South : Houston's QB problems gives Tennessee an opening.  Meanwhile, the division falls
7.  NFC West : The 49ers are the only team of merit
8.  AFC West : Denver's improving, and San Diego broke their losing streak.  They might leap over their NFC rivals this week

Playoff races
AFC:  The Patriots lead the East by two games, and they seem to have a solid grasp on that title.  They are battling with Baltimore for top seed.  Baltimore and Pitt are tied, but the Ravens hold the tiebreaker.  Houston leads Tennessee by two, but working with a third-string QB hurts the Texans.  They are happy to have the toughest defense in the conference.  Denver has taken the lead in the West, and they are certainly doing better than any other team in that division.  Pitt clearly leads the wildcard race, with the Jets and Titans strong contenders.  Cincy is slipping, as are their playoff chances

NFC: Green Bay and San Fran have clinched their division, and are playing for a bye week.  The Pack clinches a bye with a win this week; home field throughout would take at least one more.  The Saints lead the South by two games, and Atlanta is too inconsistent to catch them.  Dallas leads by one in the East, and should maintain that lead if they avoid their traditional Dec slide.  Atlanta and Detroit leads the wildcard race, as the Giants are too inconsistent and the Bears injuries have devastated their offense.

Thursday's game
Cleveland Browns (4-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3) : This won't be pretty.  The Steelers defense will pester McCoy and the Browns, while the Steelers offense will grind up yardage and clock time with Mendenhall running with the ball.  STEELERS, 21-13

Sunday early games
Atlanta Falcons (7-5) at Carolina Panthers (4-8) : This game will be close (many of Carolina's games have been), but the poor Panthers defense will give the Matt Ryan and the Falcons a chance to boost their stats.  FALCONS, 28-24

Houston Texans (9-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-5) : Andy Dalton and the Bengals are hoping that the QB woes of Houston gives them an opening, but the Bengals have struggled terribly against stiff defenses this year, and defenses don't get stiffer than the Texans'.  If Yates doesn't throw turnovers (and he's been good at avoiding that), the Texans should win this by sheer power.  TEXANS, 20-16

Indianapolis Colts (0-12) at Baltimore Ravens (9-3) : I know the chance for 0-16 frustrates Peyton Manning, but I hope he remains on the sidelines to completely heal.  Certainly this game will be a bust, with the Colts inconsistent offense (which has been looking better recently) and the Ravens tough defense.  RAVENS, 24-16

Kansas City Chiefs (5-7) at New York Jets (7-5) : The Chiefs may think they stand a chance, since Tyler Palko scored his first touchdown last week.  Granted, the Jets defense isn't as good as the Bears, but the offense, even with a sputtering Mark Sanchez, is better than the Bears' without Cutler and Forte.  New York City analysts are predicting a shut-out -- the Jets' D isn't that good.  The Chiefs will score, but not enough.  JETS, 27-13

Minnesota Vikings (2-10) at Detroit Lions (7-5) : The Lions see an opening with the Bears struggling.  They can pull a game ahead of their division rival and help their wildcard status.  Their defense will allow the Vikings a peek at victory, until a fourth quarter touchdown puts them fourteen ahead.  The Vikes will engineer one more scoring drive, but fail to convert the onside kick.  LIONS, 30-23

New England Patriots (9-3) at Washington Redskins (4-8) : The Redskins have shown flashes of brilliance, but with Grossman under center, they are too inconsistent to count on.  PATS, 27-17

New Orleans Saints (9-3) at Tennessee Titans (7-5) : The Titans defense isn't good enough to slow the Saints and the offense can't keep pace.  The Titans may score a late touchdown, making the game LOOK closer than it was, but this one will never be in doubt.  SAINTS, 28-23

Philadelphia Eagles (4-8) at Miami Dolphins (4-8) : Matt Moore is looking pretty good, and has the Dolphins offense moving.  The Eagles are in free fall.  DOLPHINS, 27-20

Tampa Bay Bucs (3-9) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-9) : Blaine Gabbert has good streaks and bad ones.  Josh Freeman is a bit more consistent, but not much.  What has hurt the Bucs is the collapse of their defense, which gives the edge to Gabbert and Maurice Jones-Drew.  JAGS, 24-20

Sunday late games
Buffalo Bills (5-7) at San Diego Chargers (5-7) : The draught is over for the Chargers, while the Bills continue to fall.  I have to like San Diego's chances to make it two in a row.  CHARGERS, 28-23

Chicago Bears (7-5) at Denver Broncos (7-5) : The Broncos are winning with Tim Tebow, while the Bears offense is hurt.  If Forte had not been injured last week, I'd easily pick the Bears, as the Broncos run defense has been terrible this season.  I can certainly count on the Bears defense to make things difficult for the Broncos offense, but Tebow is sneaky enough to score a bit.  The Bears defense will score on a turnover, and I think Devin Hester is due for another great return, but the Bears' offense will not do much on their own.  BRONCOS, 23-17

Oakland Raiders (7-5) at Green Bay Packers (12-0) : The Raiders can be tricky, but Green Bay can be a tough place to play.  While the weather seems favorable, the Pack offense is just too much to stop.  PACK, 31-20

San Francisco 49ers (10-2) at Arizona Cardinals (5-7) : The Cards offense can be unpredictable, on one week and off the next.  Against the stiff 49ers defense, it'll be off.  49ERS, 26-16

Sunday night
New York Giants (6-6) at Dallas Cowboys (7-5) : The Cowboys can take a two-game lead in the division, and severly damage the Giants' playoff chances, with a win here.  The Giants put up lots of points against the Packers last week, but Rob Ryan will have a defensive scheme to frustrate the streaky Eli Manning.  If you can throw him off early, his timing will be off all game.  COWBOYS, 27-20

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL -- St Louis Rams (2-10) at Seattle Seahawks (5-7) : The Seahawks' offense is struggling, but the Rams offense is absolutely abyssmal.  The Seahawks defense is better, and that will be the difference in this game.  SEAHAWKS, 26-17