I got conservative in my picks last week, and shouldn't have. Upsets and surprises were plentiful. Georgia Southern garnered one of the key upsets of the day, knocking Florida out of bowl contention and becoming the first FCS school ever to defeat the Gators. Hawaii turned out their best offensive performance of the season, and it was on the road, as they forced Wyoming into overtime. Hawaii was trying to win their first game of the season, as was Georgia State, who pushed Arkansas State and nearly beat them. The Iowa State Cyclones DID win their first conference game, shutting out Kansas 34-0. Washington easily blew past Oregon State in a game residents on the East Coast probably did not watch.
The Top 25 wasn't immune to upsets and surprises. Oregon, whose players had stated boredom and apathy about playing in the Rose Bowl, now don't have to worry about that, as Arizona dominated them in a 42-16 upset that likely destroyed Marcus Mariota's Heisman hopes. Johnny Manziel's chances to repeat as Heisman winner is also in danger, thanks to LSU's defensive dominance. Manziel had his worst statistical performance of his collegiate career, and didn't even complete 45% of his passes. Baylor fell from the ranks of the unbeaten HARD, losing National title hopes in an overwhelming 49-17 loss.
Tues Nov 26
Western Michigan Broncos at #16 Northern Illinois Huskies: The Huskies have already won their division, but I don't see them resting too many players, as they want that unbeaten season. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 27
Thurs Nov 28
The NFL may still rule Thanksgiving Day, but we have a couple of college games to enjoy.
Ole Miss Rebels at Mississippi State Bulldogs: The Rebels want to bounce back from a frustrating loss to Missouri. These in-state rivalries can always be tough to pick, as records go out the window, but I'll give the Rebels their due. OLE MISS by ten
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Texas Longhorns: Whoa, this game should be a doozy! Texas is stronger than most of the national analysts believe, and can play both sides of the ball well. Tech has a good offense (although recent injuries have weakened it a bit), but their defense stinks. That's why I pick Texas. TEXAS by 12
Fri Nov 29
Some great games are on tap for the day after Thanksgiving. Don't get too excited, or your leftover turkey won't digest properly!
Iowa Hawkeyes at Nebraska Cornhuskers: While both teams are simply playing for bowl position, Nebraska players know that every victory helps secure their coach's job. That sounds like incentive enough to win this game, although Iowa's defense won't make that easy. NEBRASKA by eight
#22 East Carolina Pirates at Marshall Thundering Herd: The Conference USA East division title is on the line as these two teams square off. While East Carolina started slowly, they have steadily improved. Marshall is a powerhouse this season, though. While this game could go either way, I'll give a slight edge to the improved defense of the Pirates. EAST CAROLINA by six
Miami Ohio Redhawks at Ball State Cardinals: Two red bird mascots square off, but that's about all they have in common. Miami Ohio is looking for their first win of the season, while the Cardinals are one of the most dominant teams in the MAC. Looks like the Redhawks will go winless. BALL STATE by 34
Bowling Green Falcons at Buffalo Bulls: This game should be a dandy! The MAC East title is on the line here, so both teams will play hard. Bowling Green is more used to these situations. While my sentiments run towards Buffalo, I have to give the Falcons an edge. BOWLING GREEN by nine
Arkansas Razorbacks at #14 LSU Tigers: I don't foresee a letdown after their pulverizing of Texas A&M. Zavh Mettenberger knows he has Heisman chances, and he wants one final chance to impress the voters. LSU by 24
#20 Fresno State Bulldogs at San Jose State Spartans: Like Northern Illinois, Fresno State has already won their division. Also like Northern Illinois, a perfect season still hangs in the balance, so their biggest stars will still play. FRESNO STATE by 16
Washington State Cougars at Washington Huskies: After crushing Oregon State on the road, the Huskies return home to face their in-state rival. The incentive to win this game is too great; they won't disappoint. WASHINGTON by 20
Oregon State Beavers at #13 Oregon Ducks: Both teams need a win to remove the sting of terrible losses last week. Oregon may not have wanted the Rose Bowl, but they know one more loss removes them from playing a big money bowl game. They'll get their act together for this game, but expect the Beavers to keep it close. OREGON by 13
South Florida Bulls at #17 UCF Golden Knights: UCF knows what they need to do to win the first American Athletic Conference title -- win out. They'll get this win, needing just one more next week. UCF by 23
Top 25
#1 Alabama Crimson Tide at #12 Auburn Tigers: For the first time in the history of the rivalry, the SEC West title is at stake. I find that amazing. The Iron Bowl is always a fierce battle. Both teams are well rested and ready to rumble. Auburn has engineered the best single season turnaround in school history, and want to make it the best in SEC history, but Alabama stands in the way. Both teams are strong offenses, but Alabama's defense gives them the edge. ALABAMA by 13
#2 Florida State Seminoles at Florida Gators: The Gators have already lost a bowl bid, shattering the longest current bowl streak. The Seminoles are out to rack up the best seasonal offensive showing in school history. FLORIDA STATE by 34
#3 Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan Wolverines: No doubt about it, it's tough to play in the Big House. Michigan may have lost some punch this season, but this game and its intense rivalry will still be exciting. It sometimes takes Ohio State a big of time to get their rhythm, so Michigan might take an early lead, but the Buckeyes will end up winning the game and keeping their perfect season intact. OHIO STATE by 16
#18 Texas A&M Aggies at #5 Missouri Tigers: The Tigers need this victory to win the SEC East, but Johnny Manziel and company want to finish strongly and assure themselves a good bowl. This game will be tough. LSU showed how to beat the Aggies, but can we count on another poor showing by Manziel and the offense? I think the Aggies will score more than 10 points, but I don't think they'll get their usual 40+ points. Missouri can score, too, and I think they will score a late touchdown to win the game. MISSOURI by three
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at #6 Stanford Cardinal: The Cardinal won't slack off just because they have clinched a spot in the Pac-12 Championship -- this is Notre Dame, after all! The Irish are guaranteed a bowl spot, but the Cardinal will ensure it's not a prestigious one. STANFORD by 12
#8 Baylor Bears at TCU Horned Frogs: Their National Championship hopes are dashed, and a Big XII title is in doubt, but Baylor still wants to win to gain a strong bowl. BAYLOR by 24
#9 Clemson Tigers at #19 South Carolina Gamecocks: Clemson and South Carolina both got nice and easy FCS opponents to warm up for this game. Tahj Boyd will be playing, but I don't think he'll be 100%. That might give the Gamecocks' defense an edge. That same defense has disappointed me earlier in this season, so I'll pick Clemson, but don't be surprised by a Gamecocks upset. CLEMSON by three
Penn State Nittany Lions at #10 Wisconsin Badgers: The Badgers have no chance at the Rose Bowl (and, unlike Oregon, are disappointed by that), but they know a win lands them a strong bowl, likely a New Years Day one. WISCONSIN by 16
Minnesota Golden Gophers at #11 Michigan State Spartans: Well, this game didn't turn out like Minnesota hoped. They wanted to win last week and be playing for the Legends division title. That won't happen. Minnesota might still want to be spoilers, but I don't think they can get past Michigan State's defense. After all, they couldn't get past Wisconsin's defense, and the Spartans are better. MICHIGAN STATE by 13
Arizona Wildcats at #15 Arizona State Sun Devils: Another intense in-state rivalry that will put everyone on the field, despite already clinching a division title. The Sun Devils obviously don't want to risk injuring anyone before facing Stanford, but you won't be able to keep the kids off the field for this game. The Widlcats won't be pushovers, either, so they might need the starts. ARIZONA STATE by 18
#25 Duke Blue Devils at North Carolina Tar Heels: I would certainly love Duke to win their first ACC division title ever, and play for their first ACC title in over seventy years. North Carolina won't make it easy, though. The Tar Heels have reversed a disasterous 1-5 start with five consecutive wins, four against ACC teams. Of course, except for Georgia Tech, they were the among the weakest teams in the conference, so we're not sure what to make of it. I'll pick Duke, but the Tar Heels could play spoiler and make the Coastal title picture murky. DUKE by six
Big Ten
Purdue Boilermakers at Indiana Hoosiers: Indiana's offense will roll over the Boilermakers, meaning Purdue would fail to beat a single FBS opponent this season. INDIANA by 17
Northwestern Wildcats at Illinois Fighting Illini: The Illini broke their Big Ten jinx with a close win at Purdue. I would feel more comfortable if the offense had done better, but now they get rival Northwestern at home to close the season. Northwestern, after the reaching the Top 25 will tremendous non-conference victories, collapsed in conference play. They never seemed to recover from their conference opener against Ohio State. Northwestern is the better team, but my heart wants Illinois to win, so I'm picking the upset. ILLINOIS by three
Other Games of Interest
Friday had most of these, but here's one with major implications:
Wyoming Cowboys at Utah State Aggies: The Aggies win the Mountain West Mountain division with a win here, regardless of how Boise plays that evening. Wyoming may be exhausted after the offensive showcase exhibited with Hawaii this past weekend, so I like the Aggies chances to win outright. UTAH STATE by nine
GAME OF THE WEEK: #21 UCLA Bruins at #24 USC Trojans: There are plenty of rivalry games this weekend. Why did I pick this one for the Game of the Week? First of all, this one matches the intensity of the Iron Bowl and Ohio State v Michigan. There is usually at least one brawl during this game. Also, these two teams are more closely matched than the other rivalries. Truthfully this game could go either way. UCLA has the better offense, and a desire to correct for this past weekend's debacle. The Trojans have a chance to make a stand for their interim coach, Ed Orgeron, whose name is finally in the pool of candidates for the full-time coaching position. A victory over their bitter crosstown rivals will certainly go a long way towards sealing that deal. I think this game could come down to ball control, which USC has been doing better recently. USC by three
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