Wednesday, November 27, 2013

NFL 2013 Week 13 Power Rankings and picks

The entire NFC North failed to win a game this week, but the division still has fewer teams with losing records than any division in the AFC.  Right now, it's beginning to look like the sixth seed in the AFC will have a 7-9 record.  I'll start analyzing the division races and playoff seeds starting next week, so we'll see how that develops in the coming weeks.

Top Ten teams [Last week's position]
1.  Seattle Seahawks (10-1) [1] : Not hurt by a bye at all
2.  New Orleans Saints (9-2) [3] : Not an impressive win over struggling Atlanta, but it was a win.  The AFC's top teams couldn't win this week.

3.  Denver Broncos (9-2) [2] : Who gives up a 24-point halftime lead?  With the worst showing by Peyton Manning in years (only 150 yards passing), the knocks against him and cold weather success are happening again.  Remember, this year's Super Bowl is in cold and windy New Jersey.

4.  Carolina Panthers (8-3) [5] : On a seven-game winning streak, this is the hottest team in the league right now. 
5.  Kansas City Chiefs (9-2) [4] : San Diego knocked them off to cause a two-game losing streak, and they face Denver again this week.  Fortunes are turning for the Chiefs.

6.  San Francisco 49ers (7-4) [6] : Their defense showed life as the 49ers are getting their act together again
7.  New England Patriots (8-3) [8] : Tom Brady engineered a tremendous comeback.  I'll admit, as a East coast resident who had a long Monday ahead of him, I went to sleep thinking the Broncos had that game sewn up.  Never underestimate Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.

8.  Cincinnati Bengals (7-4) [7]
9.  Arizona Cardinals (7-4) [11] : The Cards are getting it together.  With Carson Palmer providing consistency and ability at quarterback, and the defense starting to stiffen up, this team could challenge San Francisco for the sixth seed.

10. Indianapolis Colts (7-4) [9] : Arizona burned them to show that consistency is still lacking in Indy.

Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1.  NFC West [1] : The NFC West's lead expands, as they now have three Top Ten teams and the Rams are nearly 50%.  Unquestionably the best team in the league.

2.  AFC West [2] : San Diego was the only winner, but the others didn't lose too badly.  Still, this division has been falling recently.  They still hold a sizable lead over the third place division.

3.  NFC South [3] : Two teams in the Top Five and Tampa Bay is on a three-game winning streak.  If it weren't for Atlanta, this would be a hot division.

4.  AFC North [5] : Their best team had a bye and they still lept over their counterpart division in the NFC.  Pitt and Baltimore both had strong showings, but they face each other this week, so I'm not sure if this lead can hold.

5.  NFC North [4] : As I stated earlier, nobody won this week, and Chicago's defense stunk.  They play each other this week, so that may balance them out.
6.  AFC East [6] : The Patriots pulled off the aforementioned second half comeback, but the Jets looked sickly and Miami's defense couldn't hold back Carolina.  They can't coast on New England all season.

7.  NFC East [7] : Still showing improvement, they are creeping up to their AFC counterparts.
8.  AFC South [8] : While Jacksonville is no longer the worst team in the league, this division still has the worst team - the Texans (although Atlanta is battling for that distinction).  With Indy and Tennessee struggling with consistency and the other half of the division scraping the bottom of the league's barrel, this division seems destined to sit at the bottom the rest of the season.

Seattle could clinch the NFC West title this week.  I don't think they will, but it could happen.  Let's look at the games to see how:

Thanksgiving Day games
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions:  It was only a few years ago that fans were clamoring to take away the traditional Detroit Thanksgiving Day game, because the team was so bad.  Now the Lions lead the NFC North (after last week, not exactly a compliment) and are favored against a Rodgers-less Packers.  Former backup Matt Flynn came in to salvage the Packers last week, but the Lions defense is better than the porous one in Minnesota.  LIONS, 27-23

Oakland Raiders at Dallas Cowboys:  The Cowboys tend to play well on Thanksgiving; in fact, in some years, it has been the final decent game of the regular season, as the Cowboys have frequently had terrible December skids.  We're not sure if Terrelle Pryor will play, and I'm not sure his presence would help them win anyway.  COWBOYS, 27-13

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens:  Thursday night has an interesting game.  The Steelers are looking good right now, while the Ravens can't decide if they want to play like the defending Super Bowl Champs or chumps.  Pitt has the better division record, but I think the Ravens will pull off one more defensive battle in front of a national audience.  RAVENS, 23-20

Sunday early games
Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles:  The Eagles have found their spark again, but we've seen how quickly that can be extinguished.  Chip Kelly's offense only works if they can maintain an early lead.  While the Eagles may strike first, the Cards will bounce back.  If the Cards can take a lead into the halftime locker room, I think they'll win.  This game will be close regardless, but I like what Carson Palmer has been doing.  CARDS, 24-23

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings:  The Bears running defense was just atrocious last week.  Adrian Peterson has had some of his best games against the Bears, and I think he'll gain nearly 200 yards.  However, that won't be enough to win the game.  The Vikings passing attack is a joke,  I think Ponder (or whoever plays) will have at least two interceptions.  Josh McCown has this offense humming, and the Bears will win the battle of field position thanks to at least three Vikings turnovers.  BEARS, 30-26

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns:  The Jags have won two of their last three games and Chad Henne is looking pretty good.  The Browns need a strong win to erase the debacle against Pittsburgh, and this defense has the ability to give the Jags fits.  BROWNS, 23-17

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets:  The Jets offense is terrible, and their defense is not working well enough to get them out of their jam.  Ryan Tannehill is leading the Dolphins well, and I think he will outmaneuver the struggling Jets defense.  DOLPHINS, 24-16

New England Patriots at Houston Texans:  The Texans are just looking pathetic.  They couldn't score a touchdown against Jacksonville, for heaven's sake!  The Pats won't need a miraculous comeback here.  PATS, 27-13

Tampa Bay Bucs at Carolina Panthers:  Carolina is rolling!  With the Saints facing Seattle this week, the Panthers see a chance to tie them atop the NFC South.  The Bucs have a winning streak right now themselves, but the Panthers defense, combined with the leadership of Cam Newton, will pull the Panthers ahead.  PANTHERS, 24-16

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts:  The Colts looked terrible against the Cardinals, but that might have been fortuitous.  The Colts have not had two consecutive poor outings from Andrew Luck, so the Colts should bounce back this week and get past the Titans, although it will be close.  After all, most of the Titans games have been close this season.  COLTS, 26-23

Sunday late games
Atlanta Falcons at Buffalo Bills:  The worst team in the NFC goes up against a struggling AFC team.  Given the NFC's dominance this season, I'm almost inclined to pick Atlanta.  However, the Falcons are looking just dreadful.  Also, the Bills had a bye week, so they had an extra week to prepare and heal up some guys.  BILLS, 26-23

Cincinnati Bengals at San Diego Chargers:  Speaking of bye weeks, Cincy had one, too.  Excellently timed, as they got to see how San Diego's offense rolled over the Chiefs defense.  They can plan some extra strategy and find a way to stay ahead of San Diego.  BENGALS, 27-23

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs:  The Chiefs exchanged the lead with San Diego last week.  Denver blew a huge first half lead.  Since this game will not be in the bitter confines of Foxboro, I think the Broncos offense will roll over a Chiefs defense that is suddenly showing cracks.  BRONCOS, 30-24

St Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers:  Believe it or not, the Rams have a 3-0-1 record against the 49ers in their last four bouts.  That's even better than Seattle's record in their last four encounters with San Fran!  Could the Rams extend it to 4-0-1?  I think they might, but I'll go with a revitalized 49ers team.  Still, this one could easily go the other way.  Personally, I think this would have been the better choice for the Sunday night game. 49ERS, 24-20

Sunday night
New York Giants at Washington Redskins:  I've been listening to the NYC and local sports shows already dismiss the Giants.  Since Jason Pierre-Paul stated that they had to beat the Cowboys, and they didn't, everyone seems ready to dismiss the Giants.  While I am no Giants fan, I think that is premature.  I think an 8-8 record might be sufficient to win this division.  Dallas and Philly look good now, but we've already seen how Chip Kelly's offense can suddenly falter in the NFL, and I anticipate another December slide for the Cowboys.  The Giants still have a chance, but they must win this game.  The Redskins are struggling, and conflicts among the players and outbursts by RGIII are distracting them enough to open the door for the Giants.  GIANTS, 26-23

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks:  The Saints are unbeaten on the road and the Seahawks are unbeaten at home.  Something has to give.  These two will battle back and forth, much like San Diego and the Chiefs did last week, but I think the edge will be the Seahawks defense.  SEAHAWKS, 26-24

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