Wednesday, November 20, 2013

NFL 2013 Week 12 Power Rankings and picks

The NFC is definitely asserting its dominance.  Only five AFC teams have winning records, while only seven NFC teams have losing records.  Ten of the top 15 best teams are in the NFC.  Even the NFC East, who had made the cellar their home, is rising.  They trail the AFC East by only half a point, so they may leap over them this week.

Top Ten teams [Last week's position]
1.  Seattle Seahawks (10-1) [3] : An offense that trails only Denver and one of the stiffest defenses in the league makes the Seahawks dangerous.  If they can iron out their road problems, they'll set themselves up for home field advantage in the playoffs, which could propel them to the Super Bowl.

2.  Denver Broncos (9-1) [1] : Decisive win over the Chiefs to take the lead in the AFC West.

3. New Orleans Saints (8-2) [4] : The 49ers pushed them, but the Saints found a way to win
4.  Kansas City Chiefs (9-1) [2] : They fell from the ranks of the unbeaten, leaving no NFL team with a 0 in either the Win or Loss column.

5.  Carolina Panthers (7-3) [5] : Whether you feel they should have won on Monday night or not, you cannot deny that they frustrated New England.  They are chasing New Orleans for the division lead and risen to the Top Three in the NFC.

6.  San Francisco 49ers (6-4) [6] :  The 49ers hung in against one of the best offenses in the league

7.  Cincinnati Bengals (7-4) [9] : Cincy had a strong game against the Cleveland Browns, who have been faltering since their historic win over the Ravens.

8.  New England Patriots (7-3) [7] : They committed two turnovers in the red zone.  That's not normal for the Pats, whose offense still needs work.

9.  Indianapolis Colts (7-3) [8] : Tight win over Tennessee
10. Chicago Bears (6-4) [12] : Big gap between #9 and #10, the Bears leap back into the Top Ten with a patient win over the defending Super Bowl champs

Division rankings [Last week's position]
1.  NFC West [2] : You see that right!  A week after the NFC East rose from the cellar, the NFC West leaps over the AFC West.  Three teams with winning records and the new top team in the league propels this division to the top.

2.  AFC West [1] : This division isn't far behind, but they are hurt by a struggling San Diego team. The Chargers have the talent to reverse that, so this division might regain the top spot.

3.  NFC South [4] : A strong win by Tampa Bay, who has now won two in a row, as well as wins by Carolina and New Orleans made this division one of the better ones this week.

4.  NFC North [3] : Green Bay is crumbling without Aaron Rodgers and the Bears needed overtime to win.  big losses by Detroit and Minnesota hurt, too.

5.  AFC North [5] : This North is creeping up on the top half of the league, despite three 4-6 teams.  Pittsburgh and Cincy had big wins and Baltimore played tough, so these teams cannot be ignored.

6.  AFC East [6] : Buffalo and Miami had good wins, but the Jets looked terrible and the Pats turned over the ball too much.  It's hard to get behind this division, as they will disappoint.

7.  NFC East [7] : Both the Giants and Eagles are on runs.  Washington still needs work, but they show flashes of brilliance.  This is the point where they had their run last year, so don't discount them.

8.  AFC South [8] : This division has fallen badly.  Now fell behind the NFC East, the Jags and Texans look sick and the Titans are faltering.  Only Indy saves them, but they still need more consistency.

Thursday night game
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons:  The Falcons are collapsing.  They have a talented offense that can't seem to deliver.  Their defense is porous, which is not a good thing against one of the best offenses in the league.  The Saints should roll.  SAINTS, 30-17

Sunday early games
Chicago Bears at St Louis Rams:  My Bears are tied for the lead in the NFC North, so they know they need a win.  They should beat the Rams, but the Rams can be an unpredictable team.  They can have colossal losses, and then engineer a shocking win.  I'll still stick with my Bears, especially since turnovers can be the Rams bane, and no team makes opponents pay for turnovers more than the Bears.  BEARS, 27-23

Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins:  Miami beat San Diego at home last week, but this is not the Chargers.  The Panthers come in with one of the best defenses in the league, and an offense that is finally finding a balance (meaning Cam Newton doesn't have to do it all, even though he likes to on third down and short).  Moreover, if the Saints win on Thursday, the Panthers know they need a win to keep pace in the division.  PANTHERS, 23-16

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans:  The two worst teams in the AFC face off.  Who will fare worst?  The Jags are undeniably the worst team in the league, but the Texans are turning over the ball more than any other team in the league.  Still, I think the Texans will pull this one out, mainly because the Jags don't have much to take advantage of those turnovers.  I do think the Texans streak of "pick six" will extend, though.  TEXANS, 26-20

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers:  Like the previous game, we face a division rivalry where both teams are on the skids.  Green Bay's offense is floundering without Aaron Rodgers, and the defense is banged up.  The Vikings defense is in worse shape, though, which might give the Packers an edge.  Another advantage for the Packers - the Vikings run defense stinks.  While the Packers aren't a running team when Rodgers is under center, the struggles of Tolzien give them a great opportunity to boost their ground game against a team that allows lots of ground yardage.  PACK, 26-23

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens:  The Ravens have not looked too good, but they did stage a great comeback against the Bears last week.  Moreover, the Jets just look pitiful.  Geno Smith has taken a step backwards in his development, and the Ravens defense is likely to capitalize on that.  RAVENS, 23-20

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns:  The Browns are in free fall right now, while the Steelers are steadily improving.  Unless the Browns get it together for this game, the Steelers will jump over them to get out of the cellar of the AFC North.  STEELERS, 23-20

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs:  The Chargers are just a downright mystery.  They have talent, but they just keep making stupid mental and physical mistakes.  The Chiefs, on the other hand, make the most of the personnel they have, especially on defense.  San Diego has folded against tough defenses this year.  CHIEFS, 23-17

Tampa Bay Bucs at Detroit Lions:  These teams have a long history, dating back to when the Bucs were in the NFC Central division with them.  These teams play each other tough.  The Bucs are in the midst of a two-game winning streak and hoping to extend that.  The Lions want to erase the sting of their loss last week.  Calvin Johnson is having the best season of his storied career, and he'll be a challenge for the Bucs secondary to stop.  LIONS, 27-23

Sunday late games
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants: Dallas has the better offense, neither team has a decent defense, so the Cowboys should be able to score at will. However, the Giants have always played the Cowboys tough.  In previous years when the Giants have been struggling, a victory over the Cowboys turned their season around.  In fact, the last time they won the Super Bowl, they started 3-6, and a win against Dallas sparked the run that took them all the way to the Lombardi trophy.  I'll pick Dallas, but the Giants could easily win this game.  COWBOYS, 27-23

Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals: I may surprise people, but I'm picking the upset here.  The Colts are not playing consistently well, and the Cardinals are an impressive 6-3 outside their division.  Moreover, they are 4-1 at home.  While the Colts have been an impressive road team this season, I am sticking with the upset.  CARDINALS, 21-20

Tennessee Titans at Oakland Raiders:  The Titans are in the midst of a downward spiral.  While, for the season, the Raiders have a much worse point differential, in recent weeks the Raiders have looked better than the Titans, and I think the Titans' woes will continue.  RAIDERS, 24-23

Sunday night
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots: The Patriots offense is still faltering, although the return of Rob Gronkowski has perked it a bit.  Monday Night showed how much Tom Brady relies on Gronk, so expect the Broncos to cover him.  The Broncos defense isn't as good as Carolina's, so the Patriots will be able to score, but the Broncos offense is much better.  The Patriots cannot win in an offensive shootout, but the big factor is this -- can THIS Patriots team beat Peyton Manning?  The Pats and Tom Brady have traditionally ruled over Peyton, but the Broncos are different than the Colts when Peyton was there, and these Pats are not the same team that frustrated Manning.  The Pats might pull off the upset, but I have to go with Denver.  BRONCOS, 30-24

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins:  Both teams are suffering from offensive problems, so the key to this game is the strength of the respective defenses.  Washington's defense is pretty porous, while the 49ers defense is their best squad, and it's one of the stiffest in the NFC.  End of comparison.  49ERS, 28-20

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