NCAA 2013 Week 11 picks

Not many upsets, but we had some spooky results in Halloween week.  Boston College and Air Force surprised their opponents and gained a win.  Navy and Indiana played their tougher opponents surprisingly close; Notre Dame had to actually come from behind against Navy.  Other games were not nearly as close as expected:  Michigan State flattened the Wolverines, Oklahoma State outscored Texas Tech, and Florida State dropped Miami from the ranks of the unbeaten.

What surprises will we have this week?  I don't know, but given how many important games are played BEFORE Saturday, we have potential for upsets even before the dawn comes on Saturday.

Tues Nov 5
Bowling Green Falcons at Miami Ohio Redhawks:  The Redhawks haven't won a MAC game all season, and this won't be their first.  Bowling Green is chasing Ohio and Buffalo for the division lead, and the latter two play each other.  A win here is imperative.  BOWLING GREEN by 24

Ohio Bobcats at Buffalo Bulls:  The lead in the MAC East is on the line.  Ohio has been in this position before, so I have to give a slight edge to them.  That's about the only edge, as both of these teams are evenly matched.  This game could go either way, and a Bulls win would signal a chance for them to win their first conference title since escalating to FBS play.  OHIO by three

Wed Nov 6
Central Michigan Chippewas at #24 Ball State Cardinals:  Ball State wants to remain even with Northern Illinois in the race for the MAC West.  Central Michigan won't be that much of a challenge.  BALL STATE by 23

Thurs Nov 7
#12 Oklahoma Sooners at #5 Baylor Bears:  It would seem like Baylor would have this game in the bag, but never discount a determined team of Sooners.  Oklahoma's defense will cause some havoc, and their offense is capable of keeping pace for a while.  If the Bears do not trail at the half, or don't lose their patience, they can outlast the Sooners.  But if they get frazzled because they can't pull away from Oklahoma like they have other teams, they may give the game to Oklahoma.  I'll stick with the Bears, but this will be a very close game.  BAYLOR by six

#3 Oregon Ducks at #7 Stanford Cardinal:  I was tempted to make this my Game of the Week, but I tend to make those Saturday games.  This will likely be the most exciting game of the week, though.  Stanford's defense goes up against the high-octane Oregon offense.  They have beaten them before, and they are capable of doing so again, but I'll stick with Oregon tiring them out.  Watch for the Cardinal upset, though.  OREGON by five

Fri Nov 8
#6 Louisville Cardinals at UConn Huskies:  The Cardinals should have no problem beating the Huskies to maintain pace with UCF and Houston, who play each other on Saturday.  LOUISVILLE by 27

Top 25
#2 Florida State Seminoles at Wake Forest Demon Deacons:  Wake might play hard in the first quarter, but then the Seminoles offense will explode and knock them down.  FLORIDA STATE by 26

#8 Missouri Tigers at Kentucky Wildcats: Kentucky has lost every SEC game they've played this season, although they've fought hard in some of them.  The Tigers will exhaust them, allowing for a great second half roll.  MISSOURI by 27

Mississippi State Bulldogs at #11 Texas A&M Aggies:  Johnny Manziel and the Aggies shouldn't have too much trouble with the Bulldogs.  TEXAS A&M by 23

BYU Cougars at #13 Wisconsin Badgers: Both of these teams have strong ground games with capable passing attacks.  The Badgers have a slightly better defense, and they've been hardened by slightly tougher competition.  I like the Badgers chances here, but BYU might make it interesting.  WISCONSIN by nine

#15 UCLA Bruins at Arizona Wildcats:  These two are in a crucial situation, as the loser is likely out of the division race.  UCLA has the offense, but Arizona has an opportunistic defense, and their offense isn't weak.  This will likely be a close game.  I think UCLA has the crew to pull this out, but it'll be a squeaker that could go the other way.  UCLA by six

#16 Arizona State Sun Devils at Utah Utes:  Utah is struggling in Pac-12 play, and their defense isn't strong enough to hold back the Sun Devils.  ARIZONA STATE by 20

Virginia Tech Hokies at #17 Miami Hurricanes: Virginia Tech is showing the cracks that I've seen all season, but those national analysts who put them into their Top 25 couldn't see.  Miami will get a chance to redeem themselves after their crushing defeat at the hands of Florida State.  MIAMI by 17

#25 Houston Cougars at #19 UCF Golden Knights:  UCF may have needed the extra week to prepare.  Houston can be a tough opponent, and this is a crucial game, as the winner will have a strong lead in the American Athletic Conference.  I like UCF's chances, but this may be a closer game than they like.  If they let that rattle them, they could make mistakes that Houston could utilize to engineer a comeback.  UCF by ten

Kansas Jayhawks at #21 Oklahoma State Cowboys:  The Cowboys pulled off one of their best offensive performances against Texas Tech last week, so this game will serve as a great breather.  OKLAHOMA STATE by 23

#22 Auburn Tigers at Tennessee Volunteers:  Auburn should have a pretty easy time of it against Tennessee.  The Vols may score, as the Tigers defense isn't on par with other seasons, but their offense moves much better.  AUBURN by 18

#23 Fresno State Bulldogs at Wyoming Cowboys:  Wyoming isn't bad, but Fresno State will wake up from last week's slow start and make this a "signature" game.  FRESNO STATE by 20

Big Ten
Penn State Nittany Lions at Minnesota Golden Gophers:  The Gophers defense didn't stop Indiana, but that game will probably shake them up.  With Nebraska struggling (they should have lost to Northwestern except for a LUCKY Hail Mary result), they know they have a chance to advance in their division, so this game is important; too important for them to let it pass.  MINNESOTA by nine

Iowa Hawkeyes at Purdue Boilermakers: Purdue is clearly the worst team in the Big Ten, so Iowa should roll.  IOWA by 28

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan Wolverines:  Michigan wants a strong game to erase the sting from losing the Paul Bunyan Axe to the Spartans.  Nebraska should have lost to Northwestern -- they will lose to Michigan.  MICHIGAN by 16

Illinois Fighting Illini at Indiana Hoosiers:  I picked Illinois last week, and they nearly won.  Indiana pulled out all the stops against Minnesota, and I think that may have exhausted them.  Illinois' offense is good turnovers cost them ten points and a victory in regulation to Penn State.  I think Illinois will play slightly clearner, and end the conference losing streak.  ILLINOIS by four

Other Games of Interest
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Pittsburgh Panthers:  Notre Dame let Navy score a lot of points, but Pitt isn't quite as adept on offense.  This shouldn't be too challenging a game for the Irish.  NOTRE DAME by 17

Kansas State Wildcats at Texas Tech Red Raiders:  Kansas State's season has been unsteady, and now they travel to Lubbock to face an angry Texas Tech team.  The Raiders were beaten by a Cowboys team playing their form of football -- that'll tick off anyone.  Texas Tech's anger will be reflected on the scoreboard.  TEXAS TECH by 23

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at East Carolina Pirates:  The Pirates definitely have the upper hand in this game.  Tulsa, normally a competitive team, is rebuilding this year.  Their offense will be stopped by the Pirates, and the Pirates' offense will roll.  EAST CAROLINA by 20

NC State Wolfpack at Duke Blue Devils:  Duke will continue to compete for the division title, as they should roll over the pathetic Wolfpack, who haven't won a single ACC game this season.  Duke will continue what may be their best football season in a century.  DUKE by 17

Texas Longhorns at West Virginia Mountaineers: West Virginia beat TCU last week, but the Mountaineers have mostly been ineffective this year.  Now they face the conference leader.  Texas will continue their unbeaten Big XII streak.  TEXAS by 21

GAME OF THE WEEK:  #10 LSU Tigers at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide:  LSU was their lone loss two seasons ago, and Alabama avenged that loss in the National Championship Game.  Since then they have prepared well for games against LSU, knowing how dangerous they can be.  Bama will be ready for them, but this game won't be a blowout.  ALABAMA by six