NCAA 2013 Week 12 picks

After a week of few upsets and surprise results, we had plenty last week.  Very few affected the Top 25, but one surprise hit the top.  We expected LSU and Alabama to be a high-scoring close affair.  It was only high-scoring for one team, and it wasn't close at all.  While LSU kept it close in the first half, Alabama ran away with it in the second half, winning by 21 points.

Another surprise also was due to the dominance of one team against another, as Baylor blew away Oklahoma.  Unlike the Red River Rivalry, Oklahoma's only other major loss, the Sooners never had a chance in this game.  Many analysts were saying how this was Baylor's first major challenge, and they tackled it well.  Baylor is featured in this week's Game of the Week, as they face their second major challenge of the season.

Two other surprise were close games that really shouldn't have been.  Mississippi State rang up 41 points against Texas A&M, in a game where they intercepted Johnny Manziel three times.  It's obvious why the Aggies have to score so many points -- their defense sucks.  Utah shocked Stanford earlier this season, and they nearly had their second upset win over a ranked team as they played Arizona State to a close 20-19 victory.  The Sun Devils had to come from behind late in the fourth quarter to pull this one out.

There were some interesting upsets, too.  Virginia Tech knocked Miami out of the Top 25 with their second consecutive loss as they dominated the Hurricanes 42-24.  Pitt proved their rivalry with Notre Dame is still fierce, as they beat the Irish 28-21.  Kansas State clobbered Texas Tech 49-26, and Vanderbilt damaged Florida's chances of extending the nation's longest bowl streak by hammering them 34-17.

What upsets will we have this week?  Who knows?  I'm not picking many, and none that are featured in this post.  I have identified games with that potential, though.

Tues Nov 12
Between Tues and Wed, the MAC will have completed a majority of their games before Saturday.  Tonight's games have significant impact on the division races, too.

Ohio Bobcats at Bowling Green Falcons: This is a crucial game for both teams.  A loss knocks Ohio out of the divisional race.  On the other hand, Bowling Green needs the win to keep pace with Buffalo.  This will be a close and hard-fought game that could come down to who has the ball last.  BOWLING GREEN by four

Buffalo Bulls at Toledo Rockets:  Buffalo, however, faces the threat of Toledo, who are chasing Ball State and Northern Illinois in the West.  A Rockets win ties them with the loser of the matchup between the division leaders, while Buffalo wants a win to remain ahead of Bowling Green.  You know the Bulls are rooting for Ohio in the other game.  I'll pick Buffalo here, but they need to keep their minds on their own game, not the other game.  BUFFALO by eight

Wed Nov 13
#22 Ball State Cardinals at #20 Northern Illinois Huskies:  And here's the third crucial MAC game of the week.  It's interesting that all six team vying for division titles play before Saturday.  Did the schedule makers know something we didn't?  This game could decide the division winner, as a Ball State win would clinch it for them.  Northern Illinois won't make it easy, and they had a bye to prepare for this game.  I think that bye will help Northern Illinois, but the Cardinals will keep it very close.  NORTHERN ILLINOIS by three

Thurs Nov 14
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at #9 Clemson Tigers:  Another game with divisional title races on the line, just in another conference.  This is Georgia Tech's last conference game.  A win here is crucial, as a loss basically removes them from the divisional title race.  Clemson is eager to stay one game back from Florida State.  While an upset against the Seminoles isn't likely, since their only remaining conference opponent is Syracuse, the Tigers are hoping to impress enough to gain a New Years bowl.  They should have the power to win, but Georgia Tech might hurt that "impress" part.  CLEMSON by ten

Marshall Thundering Herd at Tulsa Golden Hurricane:  Marshall remains in their divisional race with an easy win over a struggling opponent.  MARSHALL by 26

Fri Nov 15
Washington Huskies at #15 UCLA Bruins:  This one has upset potential written all over it.  UCLA had to hold off a late Arizona rally to seal their win last week, and Washington is peaking.  The Huskies had their best game of the season last week,  Yes, it was against weakling Colorado, but it'll inspire the players and generate some momentum.  The Bruins cannot take Washington lightly, or they'll be staring down another late comeback; perhaps their own.  UCLA by six

Top 25
#1 Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs:  The Bulldogs scored lots of points last week, but that was more due to A&M's defense than the Bulldogs offense.  Alabama will prove that this week, as the same crushing defense that tormented Zach Mettengerger will be unleashed.  ALABAMA by 24

Syracuse Orange at #2 Florida State Seminoles:  It's the Seminoles last ACC game of the season until the Championship Game.  Will they slack off?  Not when they want to maintain the voters interest for their Number Two spot.  They know Baylor plays more impressive opponents, so the Seminoles need to roll against their weaker opponents the next two weeks.  Pity Syracuse, as they are one of those.  FLORIDA STATE by 34

#4 Ohio State Buckeyes at Illinois Fighting Illini:  Illinois will have to wait one more week to break their Big Ten drought.  At least their last two opponents are Purdue and Northwestern, we are also yet to win a conference game this season.  OHIO STATE by 16

#5 Stanford Cardinal at USC Trojans:  In years past they was an exciting game.  With Stanford's stingy defense and USC facing some injury concerns, it won't be close this year.  STANFORD by 18

#25 Houston Cougars at #6 Louisville Cardinals:  The Cardinals get to prove themselves in this game.  The national press, who don't think much of Louisville because they are not a perennial power, have had little faith in them, hence their #22 BCS rankings.  The numbers they are posting, a factor in my computerized system, boosts them.  Houston is a strong team with a good defense.  A strong performance here by Teddy Bridgewater and company should start rising Louisville to the Top Ten position they deserve.  LOUISVILLE by 16

Utah Utes at #8 Oregon Ducks:  The Utes have been a threat to ranked teams at home, but they are a much weaker opponent on the road.  The Ducks get a strong win to help counter last week's disappointment.  OREGON by 23

Indiana Hoosiers at #11 Wisconsin Badgers:  Indiana may have scored nearly fifty points last week, but that was against Illinois' pathetic defense.  This week things will be quite different.  The Badgers have the most dangerous two-back offensive backfield that any team has ever faced, and they can pass the ball when needed.  Indiana won't have solutions for all of the ways the offense can move.  WISCONSIN by 14

Georgia Bulldogs at #12 Auburn Tigers:  Georgia has had an up-and-down season.  They have good games, and they have terrible games.  Auburn proved their strength last week.  Their defense isn't great, which gives Aaron Murray a chance to put up some numbers, but the Auburn offense is powerful, stronger than what Georgia can handle.  AUBURN by nine

#13 Michigan State Spartans at Nebraska Cornhuskers: Nebraska redeemed themselves last week, but now they face the toughest defense in the conference, and one of the toughest in the country.  That'll frustrate a Cornhuskers offense already suffering from injuries.  MICHIGAN STATE by 12

#16 Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas Longhorns:  No matter who wins, I'm not sure if it qualifies as an upset.  Oklahoma State is ranked higher, and has a better overall record.  However, Texas is unbeaten in Big XII play, and has been a tough opponent who finds ways to win.  I'll pick the Cowboys, but this game could go either way.  OKLAHOMA STATE by four

Oregon State Beavers at #17 Arizona State Sun Devils:  Another game that could go either way, I'd probably pick the Beavers if the game was played in Corvallis.  The Beavers are a different team on the road, and the Sun Devils near-loss last week may wake them up and force them to play tougher this week.  ARIZONA STATE by eleven

Florida Gators at #18 South Carolina Gamecocks:  A loss here nearly guarantees that Florida will fail to reach a bowl game (as a win against the Seminoles is EXTREMELY unlikely).  Florida may try to win, but the Gamecocks defense will make that hard.  The Gamecocks are great at causing turnovers, and Florida has suffered from them this season.  SOUTH CAROLINA by 16

#19 UCF Golden Knights at Temple Owls:  Let's see -- a team with an unbeaten conference record faces a team with a winless conference record.  Somehow the outcome doesn't seem in doubt.  UCF by 27

Iowa State Cyclones at #23 Oklahoma Sooners:  The Sooners were shocked last week, but they won't be this week.  The Cyclones play well for part of a game, but they haven't put together four consecutive good quarters.  OKLAHOMA by 23

UAB Blazers at #24 East Carolina Pirates: A win here sets up East Carolina for the showdown with Marshall, where the winner captures the division title.  UAB won't really be able to stop them.  EAST CAROLINA by 20

Big Ten
Purdue Boilermakers at Penn State Nittany Lions:  Purdue is the worst team in the conference, suffering two shutouts and many blowouts.  While I'm not sure Penn State will blow them out, they will win.  PENN STATE by 20

Michigan Wolverines at Northwestern Wildcats:  Northwestern has struggled in Big Ten games, and those struggles are likely to continue.  Michigan's offense looked confused in their last game, which led to Nebraska's needed victory.  I think they'll get that straightened out this week.  MICHIGAN by 16

Other Games of Interest
Washington State Cougars at Arizona Wildcats:  The only Game of Interest this week, as our other On the Edge teams are playing ranked opponents.  The chances of them losing gives Arizona the opportunity to improve their standing.  They certainly have the talent and offense to do that.  ARIZONA by 20

GAME OF THE WEEK:  Texas Tech Red Raiders at #3 Baylor Bears:  Baylor is in the middle of their most difficult three-game stretch.  Winning out will put them in Florida State territory.  Losing one will cost them ranking position, as Stanford would probably be the higher-ranked one-loss team.  Thus, Baylor knows what is at stake -- they must keep winning.  I think they'll do that here.  Texas Tech has an offense nearly as potent as Baylor's, but their defense is weak.  Baylor's defense is better, and that will be the difference.  BAYLOR by nine