NCAA 2013 Week 6 picks

This week made up for last week, featuring some surprises and upsets.  Virginia Tech woke up Thursday evening to start the week with a surprisingly dominant victory over Georgia Tech.  That part of the country continued to provide shocking results Saturday, as West Virginia turned around their season and upset ninth-ranked Oklahoma State.  Then East Carolina completely overwhelmed North Carolina and Western Kentucky outplayed Navy.

The surprises started moving west, as Iowa completely shut down previously unbeaten Minnesota (for the second consecutive year), Texas State manhandled Wyoming, and Arizona State ran all over USC.

Thursday games
We get multiple sports channels getting into the mid-week NCAA roulette, as Fox Sports 1 and CBS Sports join ESPN.

Texas Longhorns at Iowa State Cyclones : The Longhorns had better have spent their off week toughening up, because Texas has been a wimp so far this season.  I think Mack Brown can do great things with his team, so they may be prepared to win this game, but if they slip up, the Cyclones could win.  TEXAS by six

#7 UCLA Bruins at Utah Utes : The Bruins are a strong team, and certainly the favorite to win the Pac-12 South.  This game is crucial to start their Pac-12 season strongly.  UCLA by 18

Friday games
BYU Cougars at Utah State Aggies : BYU has some talent, but the Aggies are a good team.  They are on track to win their division and play in the inaugural Mountain West Championship Game.  BYU isn't in the Mountain West anymore, so a loss wouldn't hurt that future, but it would do much to fracture their confidence.  This team needs to keep winning, and they have the talent to do that.  UTAH STATE by 13

Nevada Wolf Pack at San Diego State Aztecs : It's a down year for the Aztecs, which gives Nevada a chance to shine.  NEVADA by 16

Top 25
Georgia State Panthers at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide : Playing Georgia State is almost like playing a FCS team.  That means Alabama should have no problem.  ALABAMA by 30

#2 Oregon Ducks at Colorado Buffaloes : Colorado is playing a bit better than last season, but it's not enough to stay in the game against the high-powered Ducks offense.  OREGON by 34

TCU Horned Frogs at #4 Oklahoma Sooners : TCU finds themselves in an unusual place - tied for last place in the Big XII.  They want to improve, but they face a massive obstacle in the offensive power and defensive wall of the Sooners.  OKLAHOMA by 24

#22 Maryland Terrapins at #5 Florida State Seminoles : The Terrapins get their first real challenge of the season, facing the top team in the ACC.  Both enter unbeaten, so only one will emerge that way.  The Seminoles have a tendency to relax against opponents they believe they should beat; if they consider Maryland that way, they might lose.  I'll pick the Seminoles, but watch out for a talented Terrapins team.  FLORIDA STATE by ten

#6 Louisville Cardinals at Temple Owls : This should be an easy win for Teddy Bridgewater and the Cardinals.  LOUISVILLE by 30

#8 LSU Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs : LSU wants to recoup from their close loss to Georgia, and this is the chance to do that.  LSU by 16

#15 Washington Huskies at #9 Stanford Cardinal : This game will likely determine who will compete with Oregon for the Pac-12 North title.  Both teams are well-stocked on offense.  Stanford has the edge in defense, so that should give them the edge in the game.  STANFORD by nine

#11 Georgia Bulldogs at Tennessee Volunteers : Georgia holds the edge in their division, having lost to no SEC team and showing power and competitiveness in all of their games.  Tennessee can be tenacious, but I think the Georgia offense will exhaust them.  GEORGIA by 17

Minnesota Golden Gophers at #12 Michigan Wolverines : Minnesota was embarrassed by Iowa last week, so they want a nice game to restore their confidence.  I'm not sure they will get that.  Michigan had an extra week to rest and prepare, and Minnesota's offensive game plan is fairly simple, so designing a defense to it shouldn't be difficult.  MICHIGAN by 16

#13 Clemson Tigers at Syracuse Orange : Syracuse has already shown how susceptible they are to a strong offense when Northwestern came calling.  Clemson is even better, which will destroy the Orange.  CLEMSON by 21

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at #14 Miami Hurricanes : The Jackets want to rebound from their loss to the Hokies, so they'll be stiffing their defense.  That will slow the Hurricanes, but the Miami defense will really make the difference.  This will be a low-scoring game, but will go Miami's way.  MIAMI by nine

Kentucky Wildcats at #16 South Carolina Gamecocks : Kentucky is struggling this season, so this should be a fairly easy win for the Gamecocks.  SOUTH CAROLINA by 17

West Virginia Mountaineers at #18 Baylor Bears : Can West Virginia knock off their second Top 25 team in a row?  Do I think they've turned themselves around that well?  No, I don't. Baylor's offense is too strong; they will score quickly and often.  BAYLOR by 27

Kansas State Wildcats at #20 Oklahoma State Cowboys : As far as the team West Virginia beat, they hope to regroup against a team that lost to FCS North Dakota State.  K State got better after that, but then lost to struggling Texas.  The Wildcats had last week off, so they might be able to reverse their slide again, as they did after the North Dakota State game.  I'll pick the Cowboys, but the Wildcats might scratch out an upset.  OKLAHOMA STATE by six

#21 UCF Golden Knights at Memphis Tigers : UCF played a solid game against South Carolina, so Memphis shouldn't give them much trouble.  UCF by 20

#24 Fresno State Bulldogs at Idaho Vandals : Fresno State played too late in Hawaii; they let the Warriors start coming back in the third quarter.  That won't happen in Idaho.  FRESNO STATE by 24

#25 Northern Illinois Huskies at Kent State Golden Flashes : Kent State has had a fairly easy conference schedule -- that changes now.  After this game they get Ball State.  Look for Kent to lose them both.  NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 17

Big Ten
Penn State Nittany Lions at Indian Hoosiers : It should be a good couple of weeks for the Penn State faithful.  Last week they found out that the NCAA will restore some of their scholarships early, and now this week they should gain an easy victory against the Hoosiers.  PENN STATE by 20

Illinois Fighting Illini at Nebraska Cornhuskers : Illinois has a potent offense, but their defense needs some work.  If they can muster enough to slow Nebraska, they might outscore them.  I'll pick the home team, but watch for an Illini win.  NEBRASKA by four

Michigan State Spartans at Iowa Hawkeyes : Prior to last week, I would have picked the Spartans.  They still might win, but Iowa has momentum and their young guys have gained some valuable experience.  IOWA by three

Other Games of Interest
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Kansas Jayhawks : Texas Tech gets to pad their Top 25 resume by beating up on poor Kansas.  TEXAS TECH by 27

Arkansas Razorbacks at Florida Gators : Arkansas can be dangerous, but Florida has talent.  The biggest concern around the Gators is the health of QB Jeff Driskel.  Tyler Murphy did okay his first start, but Kentucky is a significantly different team than Arkansas.  The Gators will have a battle on their hands, and it could go against them.  FLORIDA by six

Arizona State Sun Devils at Notre Dame Fighting Irish : The Irish have lost steam on defense, and their offense isn't fast-moving, either.  The Sun Devils have a potent offense.  If they can avoid making mistakes (penalties and turnovers), they should beat the Irish.  ARIZONA STATE by eight

Missouri Tigers at Vanderbilt Commodores : Vandy has some punch, but Missouri is a strong team this season.  They are the only unbeaten team in the SEC East, and they want to keep that advantage.  MISSOURI by 18

GAME OF THE WEEK:  #3 Ohio State Buckeyes at #17 Northwestern Wildcats : Ohio State's young defense showed holes against Wisconsin, so Northwestern saw some things they might be able to exploit.  Urban Meyer is an excellent coach, and he surrounds himself with excellent coaches, so I suspect some of those holes will be filled, but expect the Wildcats to throw everything at Ohio State.  OHIO STATE by six