NFL 2013 Week 1 picks

It's the start of a new season, and we have some thrilling games this weekend!  It all starts with the defending Super Bowl Champions and a favorite to reach this year's Super Bowl.

Thursday game
Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos:  Baltimore lost some punch on defense, but their offense is still loaded.  The offense was really rolling in the postseason, but they started 2012 slowly.  Will they puck up on the momentum from the end of last year, or did the long break throw them off?  Denver's defense is without Von Miller, but the offense improved in the off-season.  I like Denver to overpower a Ravens team still finding their defensive identify.  BRONCOS, 31-24

Sunday early games
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints:  The Saints defense should improve this year, but it may take a little bit of time.  Between the Saints' high-powered offense and the connection that exists among Matt Ryan and his receivers, this should be a high-scoring game.  While either team could this game, I have to favor the Saints in an offensive battle.  SAINTS, 35-31

Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears:  I would love to pick my Bears, but I'm not sure if their new offensive line will protect Jay Cutler enough.  There's also some question whether Brandon Marshall will play.  Thus, I have to figure the Bengals will dominate this game.  BENGALS, 27-17

Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars:  The Chiefs set themselves up for a good season, while the Jags don't appear to have fixed too many of their holes in the off-season.  A poor defense is also a negative for the Jags.  CHIEFS, 27-13

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns:  Neither team seems ready for a strong run this season, but the Dolphins certainly seem better suited for a good game here.  The Browns have a tendency to make too many mistakes, and the early part of the season is common for mental mistakes.  DOLPHINS, 20-10

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions:  On paper, these two teams seem evenly matched.  However, Vikings QB Christian Ponder comes into this season with a monkey on his back.  He know he has to perform.  If the Lions take an early lead, he may feel pressure to perform.  If he starts to force plays, that's when he makes mistakes.  He may calm down over halftime, but it might be too late then.  LIONS, 30-24

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills:  The Patriots may have lost considerable offensive punch in the off-season, but they have more than enough to beat the Bills, especially with their quarterback problems.  PATS, 20-6

Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts:  Oakland is having quarterback issues of their own, as well as issues at many positions.  Running back is the only positive part of Oakland's game, which ironically is the worst spot on the Colts' roster.  They won't need a running game, as a weak Oakland secondary will let the passing game flourish.  COLTS, 31-13

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers:  Cam Newton likes to think he is a good option quarterback, but he can't compare to Russell Wilson.  Wilson is faster, sneakier, and stronger.  In fact, those adjectives can be used for most comparisons between Seattle players and Carolina players.  Seattle is being viewed as a potential Super Bowl team, and this game will illustrate why.  SEAHAWKS, 30-17

Tampa Bay Bucs at New York Jets:  Like Buffalo and Oakland, the Jets are having quarterback problems of their own.  They are also suffering on defense, although Coach Rex Ryan has turned his focus to that squad.  He can turn them around faster, but it'll take a few weeks.  BUCS, 13-6

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers:  Pittsburgh will start slowly, as they rebuild their offensive line, their running game, and their defense.  Fortunately, the Titans are weak enough to give them some time.  STEELERS, 13-6

Sunday late games
Arizona Cardinals at St Louis Rams:  Despite some issues on the Cardinals, these two teams seem pretty evenly matched.  This will likely be a close game.  With neither a defensive mammoth, which I usually use to resolve close games, I'll pick the home team.  RAMS, 17-16

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers:  Clay Matthews has been talking all week about how they will stop the read option offense - attacking the quarterback.  This strategy counts on the quarterback having no option if he carries the ball.  Last year, that might have worked, as Kapernick's primary receivers were players who stretched the field.  With Michael Crabtree out, Anquan Boldin fulfills that role.  Most of the other receivers, though, are short yardage guys, giving a scrambling or running Kapernick dump off options.  That will make the 49ers successful.  49ERS, 27-23

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys:  The Giants come into the regular season with some issues, but the Cowboys are definitely scrambling for offensive strength.  If the preseason was any indication, this team will struggle.  GIANTS, 20-13

Monday night games
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins:  Chip Kelly's fast offense truly debuts.  He was finding the right personnel during preseason, and he says he's now ready to roll it out.  Whether the offense works or not may not be the issue for this game.  I don't think the defense will get long enough breaks with this fast offense, and a weary defense against Washington's option offense will be devastating.  REDSKINS, 27-13

Houston Texans at San Diego Chargers:  The Texans took a step back from last year, but their defense should still be strong enough to slow the Chargers offense.  TEXANS, 20-16