My, we had some surprises this week! Baltimore found their power and pounded Houston. Carolina shut out the Giants to score their first victory of the season. Cincy out-battled Green Bay in an unusually terrible day for Aaron Rodgers, Cleveland shocked the Vikings, and the Dolphins knocked off Atlanta.
Some of these surprises inspired me to create a list of surprise teams, one for each record:
3-0 : I have to admit that Miami is my surprise unbeaten at this point. Tannehill showed flashes last year that he could be good, but he's been terrific! The defense harkens back to the No Name Defense days.
If I could put one SQUAD on this list, it would be the Chicago Bears defense. Check this out -- the Bears defense has scored FIVE touchdowns in three games. That's more than three NFL TEAMS have done! That would be impressive enough if the team needed the defense to score for them, but the offense isn't shabby, either, and the return team has scored three touchdowns of their own this season.
2-1 : Although the Tennessee Titans come close, I have to say the New York Jets. They looked shabby in preseason, and we were concerned just how well Geno Smith would play. Well, he's played well. The defense hasn't been outstanding, but they still cover opposing receivers well enough to break up plays and keep opponents from scoring on long pass plays.
1-2 : There are 11 teams at 1-2, so the winless teams are only two games back from playoff pace, not three. There are so many candidates here. I could pick Green Bay, but since they have a bye week, they can be my surprise 1-2 team next week. Atlanta is a candidate, but since they might lose to the Patriots on Sunday night, I'll save them for my surprise 1-3 team next week. That makes the San Francisco 49ers the 1-2 surprise team. The defending NFC champs have looked pathetic the past two weeks, allowing over 70 points while scoring only 10. Their vaulted defense looks slow and confused, and Colin Kapernick seems to have lost his magic. If they don't reverse this, they stand little chance of catching Seattle.
0-3 : Aside from the Jags and the Bucs, I would not have picked any of these teams to be winless at this point. The Giants and Vikings had some problems during preseason, and RGIII showed that his health might still be an issue, so I guess the biggest surprise would be the Pittsburgh Steelers. Yes, their preseason was no prize, either, but that's not too surprising for the Steelers. When the season begins, though, these guys bear down and get the job done. Well, normally they do. While they showed some spunk in the second half of the Bears game, the Steelers have mostly floundered. Most surprising has been the problems on defense, normally a very sturdy squad for this team.
Top Ten teams [Last week's position]
1. Denver Broncos (3-0) [1] : Owners of the best offense BY FAR (they're the only team to have scored over 100 points in the first three games, averaging over 40 points a game), they showed a running game on Monday night, too. This offense can't seem to be stopped, so the only teams who might beat them are teams who can score as quickly as they can (like Seattle or New Orleans) or teams who can score on either side of the ball (da Bears).
2. Seattle Seahawks (3-0) [2] : Speaking of those Seahawks, here they are. If you had asked me at the beginning of the season which NFC team would have allowed the fewest points through three games, I would have guessed San Francisco. Right division, wrong team. Seattle's offense is strong, and their defense is tops in the league.
3. Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) [3] : The offense has slowed slightly since their breakout Week 1, but this is still a fierce team -- just ask the Eagles.
4. New Orleans Saints (3-0) [4] : The Saints blew past a decent Cardinals defense to leapfrog over Miami for the fourth spot. The Saints have something to prove this year, hoping to wipe last year's debacle from everyone's memory. They're off to a good start.
5. Miami Dolphins (3-0) [4] : They beat Indy last week and Atlanta this week. That defense is stopping strong offenses, and Tannehill keeps getting better each week. This team continues to lead the AFC East, although the Patriots are improving.
6. New England Patriots (3-0) [7] : Speaking of those Pats, here they are! Tom Brady is starting to establish a rhythm with these new receivers. Once he does, this team may not miss all of the receivers they let go in the offseason. The defense looks sharp, but it's hard to be certain, as they have been fueled by a favorable schedule.
7. Chicago Bears (3-0) [9] : The only team to have scored 8 touchdowns from squads OTHER than the offense, this team is dangerous no matter WHO takes the field! The Steelers sealed up Brandon Marshall for most of the night, but Cutler and company still moved the ball. With the defense leading the league in takeaways and points scored, you can never really relax when you play the Bears.
8. Dallas Cowboys (2-1) [13] : The Cowboys came to life this week, as they slaughtered the Rams. This could mark the turnaround Jerry Jones was hoping for.
9. Indianapolis Colts (2-1) [18] : The Colts defense kept Kapernick down and the running game regained form, even if new acquisition Trent Richardson only gained 35 yards. Indy looks prepared for the long haul.
10. Detroit Lions (2-1) [11] : The Lions edged out Cincy for the final spot in the Top Ten with a shredding of Washington. Detroit didn't play great, but they exploited the health weaknesses of RGIII that Green Bay exposed last week.
Divisional ranks [Last week's position]
1. AFC West [1] : San Diego and Oakland faltered a bit this week, but this division still has two Top Five teams and all four teams are threats to win any game.
2. AFC East [2] : This division is surprisingly strong. They are the only division unbeaten against teams from outside the division, which means the only NFL teams who have proved capable of beating the AFC East is... the AFC East.
3. NFC North [3] : Big drop-off in strength from Number Two to here, and the Pack's loss didn't help. However, this division has only one team with a negative point differential (Minnesota) - only the AFC East can say the same.
4. NFC South [5] : The Panthers huge blowout against the Giants more than makes up for Atlanta's shocking upset loss. Now only the Bucs drag them down.
5. AFC South [6] : Houston lost big and fell from the Top Ten, but Indy and Tennessee have this division in line. Three teams at 2-1 looks good, but the cellar-dwelling Jags (last in both the division and the league) hurts them.
6. NFC West [4] : Everyone lost except Seattle, dropping this division. San Fran's offense looks like a joke, opening up an interesting match-up against the Rams this week.
7. AFC North [8] : Three wins and an impressive second half for Pittsburgh boosts this division up, but they need to find consistency from more than just the Bengals.
8. NFC East [7] : The only division with two winless teams, the Cowboys are the only good thing about this division (gee, I did not expect to say THAT anytime this season!)
Thursday game
San Francisco 49ers at St Louis Rams : Given their recent offensive woes, I was concerned that San Fran might lose this game, especially since St Louis went 1-0-1 against them last season. With Aldon Smith out, their pass rush defense takes a huge hit, giving Sam Bradford enough time to move the ball. The Rams can stumble in the red zone, but the Rams should move the ball better than the 49ers have been doing. RAMS, 17-13
Sunday early games
Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Bucs : The Bucs are winless, but I don't think that'll last. Their offense is poor, but their defense is capable of taking control of a game (albeit not in the same way Chicago does). The Cards are susceptible to a stiff defense; the Saints proved that. This is the best chance for the Bucs to win their first game. BUCS, 13-10
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills : The Ravens have started looking like the defending Super Bowl champs. EJ Manuel lost the duel of rookie QBs last week, and he faces a tougher defense this week. RAVENS, 27-16
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions : Given the Bears tendency to cause turnovers, the Lions should be concerned. Their receivers have a history of bobbling the ball; if they do that, they may find the ball change hands. With Nate Burleson out due to his broken arm, things get dimmer. Detroit can score, but will the Bears defense make it too tough for them? BEARS, 30-24
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns : The Browns won their first game without Trent Richardson, but they had great incentive to prove the naysayers wrong. Take away that incentive, and the Browns are a mediocre team at best. Hoyer showed up well in his first game replacing Wheeden, but I don't think he can outplay the Bengals. BENGALS, 23-20
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars : The Jags are the worst team in the league, so this should be a breeze for the Colts. COLTS, 31-10
New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs : I don't think the Giants will be shut out this week, but they stand no chance against the hot Chiefs offense playing the way they have been. CHIEFS, 34-13
Pittsburgh Steelers at Minnesota Vikings : The Steelers offense showed some life in the second half of the Bears game. Will that allow them to win their first game, or will that honor go to the Vikings? Someone will win their first game this season, and I like the Vikings' chances. The Steelers stuffed the box last week against the Bears and they still found ways to grind out yards. Give Adrian Peterson that chance, and he'll tear down the field. The Steelers will likely sack Christian Ponder at least three times, so the running game will be the Vikings' only option, but it'll be enough. VIKINGS, 21-13
Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans : Houston was shocked by the Ravens last week, and now they encounter an even more dynamic offense. They will find themselves behind quickly, and Matt Schaub is not great at coming from behind. SEAHAWKS, 27-16
Sunday late games
Dallas Cowboys at San Diego Chargers : The Titans slowed Philip Rivers and the Chargers, and the Cowboys defense is equally tough. This game will be close, and the Chargers could pull it out, but I have to favor the Cowboys in this bout. COWBOYS, 27-23
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans : Geno Smith is progressing well, and he's being helped by his defense, but the Titans are a bigger story. Jake Locker has suddenly come on, and he is reading the field much better. Smith still makes some mental mistakes, while Locker has been long enough to know what to do. TITANS, 21-16
Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos : The fastest offense meets the second fastest offense, and Denver is doing better with it. This will be an offensive battle, but the Broncos have better tools than the Eagles. BRONCOS, 34-23
Washington Redskins at Oakland Redskins : Terrelle Pryor has looked pretty good, and he sparked two great drives in the late third quarter and fourth quarter on Monday night. The Redskins are still suffering as much as their ailing QB, so this is an excellent opportunity for Oakland to take control of a game, a position of power they love, but have been unable to reach this season. RAIDERS, 23-10
Sunday night
New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons : The Falcons need a win, and they often get one in the regular season when they have to. This week, however, I'm not sure. The Patriots defense, knowing they need to give Brady time to gel with his new receivers, have really stiffened up. Atlanta's offense has been slightly off-kilter this season, which they must reverse. If they don't, the Pats defense will stuff them. PATRIOTS, 20-17
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints : The Dolphins love to shock unbeaten teams on Monday Night Football, and this time they come in unbeaten themselves. Despite that history, I like the Saints' chances. Their high-powered offense is back, Drew Brees looks more comfortable, and the Saints defense is as tough (if not slightly tougher) as the squad they had in their Super Bowl season. This is a solid team. SAINTS, 27-23
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