NCAA 2013 Week 4 picks

There were fewer upsets and major surprises, and once again a FCS team beat a FBS team.  In fact, Bethune-Cookman didn't just BEAT Florida International, they slaughtered them!  Maybe Florida International can bounce back as well as Oregon State has, as they shocked Utah with an overtime victory.

This was a tough week for the MAC, as two early favorites suffered tough losses.  North Texas knocked off Ball State, and Bowling Green was completely dominated by Indiana.  Another Big Ten team was the one BEING dominated, as UCLA crushed Nebraska.

Will we see more surprises this week?  Probably, but I'm not sure where.  I've identified a few potential surprises, but does anticipating them mean they are no longer a surprise?

Thurs Sept 19
#10 Clemson Tigers at NC State Wolfpack : Clemson has been quiet since their defeat of Georgia, but they get another national audience.  Expect the Tigers to make the most of that, and put together another dominant victory.  CLEMSON by 20

Fri Sept 20
Boise State Broncos at Fresno State Bulldogs : Boise State played a great game on Saturday, seemingly healed from their loss to Washington (who has shown that the win over Boise State was no fluke).  However, Fresno State has been playing well, and they (unintentionally) got a week to rest, as the floods in Colorado postponed their game against the Buffaloes.  That break will make them hungry, so expect them to feast on bronco burgers.  FRESNO STATE by eleven

Top 25
Colorado State Rams at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide : While the team could relax TOO much after their win over Texas A&M, Nick Saban won't let these guys let down.  The Tide will roll!  ALABAMA by 30

Florida A&M Rattlers at #3 Ohio State Buckeyes : Well, a win here won't help the Buckeyes' stats, but it'll be a good game for their new defensive players to gain experience.  OHIO STATE by lots

Auburn Tigers at #4 LSU Tigers : These Auburn v LSU games are frequently slug fests.  It hasn't been the past couple of seasons, when Auburn was struggling. Auburn is looking better, so they'll give LSU a battle, but LSU has too many tools to lose this one.  LSU by 13

Bethune-Cookman Wildcats at #5 Florida State Seminoles : The Seminoles are used to playing BC, but that BC is usually Boston College.  The Wildcats shocked one FBS team from Florida last week, but they won't repeat that action.  FLORIDA STATE by 18

Florida International Golden Panthers at #5 Louisville Cardinals : Florida International might be hoping for a chance to redeem themselves after their loss to Bethune-Cookman, but they won't get it.  Louisville and Teddy Bridgewater want a strong game after a slow start last week, and picking apart the Panthers is a great way to do that.  LOUISVILLE by 24

#7 Michigan Wolverines at UConn Huskies : Michigan faltered against Akron, but I think that game will wake them up.  The Wolverines need to toughen up, knowing they have some stiff competition starting next week when Big Ten conference play begins.  MICHIGAN by 17

North Texas Mean Green at #11 Georgia Bulldogs : North Texas played a great game last week, but they face a much tougher opponent this week.  Georgia may be surprised by the power of the Mean Green, but the Bulldogs will still prevail.  GEORGIA by 20

New Mexico State Aggies at #12 UCLA Bruins : Easy home win for the Bruins.  UCLA by 27

SMU Mustangs at #13 Texas A&M Aggies : Given what the Aggies showed against Alabama, there are few defenses that can slow them, and SMU is not one of them.  TEXAS A&M by 31

Savannah State Tigers at #14 Miami Hurricanes : Another easy FCS v FBS match-up, especially since the Hurricanes had a bye week leading into this.  MIAMI by lots

Arizona State Sun Devils at #15 Stanford Cardinal : The Sun Devils shocked Wisconsin, but the Badgers aren't a great night team.  Stanford is used to it, so game time won't be an issue.  This game may be close, but the Cardinal should pull this out.  STANFORD by 12

Maine Black Bears at #17 Northwestern Wildcats : Maine is a tough FCS team, but beating the Wildcats would be a major upset.  I don't see it, giving the strong offense that Northwestern has exhibited.  NORTHWESTERN by 17

Idaho State Bengals at #18 Washington Huskies : Another FCS v FBS match-up; little chance for an upset. With Washington's offense, this could be a huge blowout. WASHINGTON by lots

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks at #20 Baylor Bears : Did Baylor really need a bye week to prepare for this one?  Strange scheduling.  BAYLOR by 26
Purdue Boilermakers at #25 Wisconsin Badgers : The Badgers start Big Ten play early, and they come in committed to showing up strongly after a shocking development in Arizona.  Purdue can strike fast, as they showed against Notre Dame, but they also showed that they are susceptible to strong offenses -- they wear them down.  WISCONSIN by ten

Big Ten
San Jose State Spartans at Minnesota Golden Gophers : Minnesota looks great.  Their opposition hasn't been too tough, so this game will really prove whether Minnesota is for real.  MINNESOTA by 16

Western Michigan Broncos at Iowa Hawkeyes : The Broncos haven't shown up too strongly this season, especially against Big Ten teams.  Iowa isn't stellar, but I think they can edge past a struggling Western Michigan squad.  IOWA by four

South Dakota State Jackrabbits at Nebraska Cornhuskers : South Dakota State is unbeaten and a strong team.  Could this be another FCS upset?  Maybe, but I don't think so.  Nebraska had some holes exposed this past week, so they'll work to fill them this week.  NEBRASKA by 16

Kent State Golden Flashes at Penn State Nittany Lions :Penn State faltered this week, which will only make them more determined this week.  Kent State might have had a chance to sneak past them, but not now.  PENN STATE by 20

Missouri Tigers at Indiana Hoosiers : When I predicted this season, I figured this would be an easy win for Missouri.  The Tigers have started slowly, though, and Indiana is a force.  Believe it or not, I'm going for the upset here.  INDIANA by four

Other Games of Interest
North Carolina Tar Heels at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets : I'm switching my thoughts on this game, too.  The Tar Heels have been mediocre, while the Yellow Jackets have been playing well.  The bye week may have helped North Carolina, but playing this past week may have boosted the confidence of Tech.  I'll pick them, but this game could go either way.  GEORGIA TECH by three

Utah State Aggies at USC Trojans : The Aggies are a good team, but the Trojans are playing well.  Many teams have found it hard to beat USC in the Coliseum, and the Aggies will face that now.  USC by 20

West Virginia Mountaineers at Maryland Terrapins : Maryland frequently starts well, but falters in ACC play.  They start conference play next week, and they want a solid win going into it.  The Mountaineers have not looked good so far, and Maryland will take advantage of their weakness.  MARYLAND by 12

Arkansas Razorbacks at Rutgers Scarlet Knights : Arkansas is playing very well.  So is Rutgers, but not at the same level.  ARKANSAS by 18

Texas State Bobcats at Texas Tech Red Raiders : The Red Raiders should have no problem rolling over the Bobcats.  TEXAS TECH by 34

GAME OF THE WEEK:
#19 Michigan State Spartans at #23 Notre Dame Fighting Irish : Given how the Irish came back last week, the Itish could have turned a page and found themselves.  The Spartans have played rather conservatively in the past three weeks, but playing Notre Dame will spur them to fight.  I favor the Spartans, but this game could swing the other way.  MICHIGAN STATE by eight