NFL 2013 AFC preview

There should be some new power teams emerging this year.  The AFC West should improve, but the AFC North remains the best overall division in the conference.

AFC East
1.  New England Patriots (11-5) : With the release of Tim Tebow, Ryan Mallett backs up Brady for a reunion of former Michigan Wolverines.  The Patriots have plenty of talent in the offensive backfield, led by Stevan Ridley (following up a great 2012) and third down specialist Shane Versen.  The injured Rob Gronkowski is replaced by former Illini Micheal Hoomanawanui. 

Now for the bad news -- the Pats lost their top four receivers from last year, and have given Brady a patchwork squad.  That's not good, as Brady passes to where the receivers are going, so he needs a strong rapport with them.  The passing game will start off slowly, so the Patriots will use that experienced and talented backfield.  Can the defense keep them in such low-scoring games?  It'll be a challenge at first, as the defensive line is a mix of young (less than three years experience) and old (eight or more years).  The linebacking corps is solid, but secondary can be beat.

2.  Miami Dolphins (5-11) : The team got Mike Wallace from Pittsburgh to help support QB Ryan Tannehill, but they still lack experienced wide receivers, especially with Dustin Keller out all season due to injury.  The running back corps is equally inexperienced, so the offense will need work this season.  The coaching staff focused on the offense during the off-season, so the defense remains spotty.  This team could improve as the season progresses, but they will start off struggling.

3.  New York Jets (4-12) : Here is an offense in trouble.  With Geno Smith and Mark Sanchez injured, Greg McElroy will start the season.  Even when Sanchez returns from his shoulder injury, he'll be second string, given his pathetic preseason performance.  Jeremy Kerley and Stephen Hill are the only reliable receivers the team has.  The running corps is weak, and the offensive line is even weaker.  Rex Ryan takes back control of the defensive, so I expect this squad will improve by mid-season.  The defensive line already looks good, but right now Antonio Cromartie is the only speedy and reliable defensive back.  Ryan has his work cut out for him to improve this defense, but we know he can do it.  His job is also on the line, so he has extra incentive to improve them.

4.  Buffalo Bills (3-13) : Some national analysts think the Bills are an improved team this season, but I don't see it.  It'll take a few weeks to see any kind of passing attack, as both Kevin Kolb and EJ Manuel are injured.  Manuel is expected back for Week 2, but he didn't get enough playing time with the receivers to get comfortable.  Manuel needed that when he was at Florida State.  The offense is still heavily reliant on RB CJ Spiller.  Spiller is good, but a strong defensive front can slow him down.

The defensive is equally a problem for the Bills due to injuries.  The best member of their secondary, Steven Gilmore, is out for the first half of the season.  Their defensive line is good, but the rest of the defensive squad will need time to gel.  Unlike college, you don't get patsy opponents in that development time.

AFC North
1.  Cincinnati Bengals (12-4) : That's right, I don't think the defending Super Bowl Champs will win the division.  The Bengals have a strong offensive, led by QB Andy Dalton, RB Benarvus Green-Ellis, and wide receivers AJ Green, Brandon Tate, and Mohamed Sanu.  The defense is equally strong -- hey, it has to be!  This is the AFC North!  This is the Bengals year to shine, at least until they get to the playoffs.  A bye week might help them.

2.  Baltimore Ravens (10-6; wildcard) : The Super Bowl Champs have a great offense.  QB Joe Flacco leads a deep corps of wide receivers, and versatile RB Ray Rice has the backfield moving.  The defensive line is stiff, but the defensive secondary lost some punch, especially if Elvis Dumervil can't play.

3.  Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) : Age is starting to wear on the Steelers.  They did go youthful to fix their ailing offensive backfield, drafting former Michigan State Spartan Le'Veon Bell to lead their running attack.  He was injured in preseason, but he'll be back for Week 3.  Unsteady Isaac Redman will start in his place.  Expect Big Ben to throw more in the early weeks.  The problem is, he doesn't have great receivers to throw to.  Ben will have to force some throws, and that's when he makes his mistakes.

4.  Cleveland Browns (3-13) : QB Brandon Weeden needs work and weapons.  RB Trent Richardson looks to be the key offensive weapon, but he's not as good as CJ Spiller or Darren McFadden, two other offensice-leading running backs.  The defense was boosted in the off-season with the acquisition of free agent Paul Kruger and draftee Barkevious Mingo, but if they can't score, they can't win.

AFC South
1.  Houston Texans (11-5) : The defense is even more devastating than last year.  Brian Cushing returns from injury, Whitney Mercilus has been promoted to starter, and the team has decided to return to the 4-3 scheme.  All of this will free up JJ Watt to be a fierce weapon again.  QB Matt Schaub has three excellent receivers and RB Arian Foster.  The offense is good, but the defense is the heart of this team.

2.  Indianapolis Colts (10-6) : They hope to use new tight ends Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener is spread out the offense and take some pressure off their young offensive line.  Hopefully Allen and Fleener will prove good short drop-off targets for QB Andrew Luck, as he will be scrambling frequently.  This is all done to reduce the 27 sacks suffered by Luck last season.  The Colts also needed to add punch to their running game, so they snagged free agent RB Ahmad Bradshaw.

3.  Tennessee Titans (4-12) : The team hopes a rebuilt offensive line can allow RB Chris Johnson to lead the offense.  QB Jake Locker needs to calm down, as he panics under pressure.  Hopefully the new line will help relieve some of that pressure, so that he can spot and track wide receivers Kenny Britt and Kendall Wright.  The defense is still a major concern for this team, which allowed the 2nd most points of any team last year.

4.  Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13) : The Jags gave QB Blaine Gabbert a vote of confidence in the off-season, but they haven't given him a strong cadre of receivers, so that confidence will fade fast.  RB Maurice Jones-Drew will once again be called upon to lead the offensive charge, at least until WR Justin Blackmon returns in Week 5.  The defense lacks speed and power.

AFC West
1.  Denver Broncos (13-3) : RB Monte Ball brings a good ground game back to this team.  A decade ago this team would produce a different 1000-yard rusher ever season; they haven't had a 1000-yard rusher in over six years.  QB Peyton Manning has gained WR Wes Welker, but Welker won't be his primary target.  Working with his receivers for a year, Manning has developed a synchronicity with the current receivers.  Welker will probably see most of his work during four receiver sets.

The Broncos might have the most dangerous pair of defensive corners in the conference in Champ Bailey and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.  Their defense gave Manning time to find his rhythm last season, and now the defense will pulverize opponents as much as the offense.

2.  Kansas City Chiefs (12-4; wildcard) : What's this?  I predict a ten-game swing in the Chiefs' record?  What could prompt that record-setting switch?  How about new coach Andy Reid and new QB Alex Smith.  Smith is a great quarterback; he was the top ranked QB in 2012 through the first eight games.  Reid is bringing in a West Coast-style offense which Smith loves, and mixing up the offense to keep defenses off-guard.  RB Jamaal Charles and TE Anthony Fasano have great hands and become excellent dump off options.  Smith does not favor long lobs downfield, and these two should enhance a short yardage passing attack.

If anything could prevent my predicted ten-game swing, it would be the defense.  While the linebacking corps is solid, the line needs some work.  That line should have time to gel, though, as the Chiefs get the easiest early schedule of any team in the AFC; a gift courtesy of their 2-14 record last season.  Those early victories will give Smith confidence, and a confident Smith is a dangerous Smith.

3.  San Diego Chargers (8-8) : QB Philip Rivers should have a revival.  After struggling for two years behind a patchwork line, the coordinators are shifting formations to allow fullbacks to help block, giving Rivers time to connect with Malcolm Floyd or Eddie Royal.  He still has TE Antonio Gates as an option, too.  The problem with team lies on the defense.  LB Dwight Freeney is getting old, and he's the most dangerous player on the squad.

4.  Oakland Raiders (2-14) : To paraphrase the Joker, "this team needs an enema!"  QB Terrelle Pryor assumes the starting QB role, but it's no favor.  The receiving corps is filled with inexperienced players who frequently drop passes; Jacoby Ford is about the only reliable receiver they have.  RB Darren McFadden will do the bulk of the work, although mobile QB Pryor will add a new dimension to the ground game.

A team whose offense depends on the running game needs a strong offense to keep opponents from scoring quickly and often.  What does the Raiders' defense look like?  How about nine new starters, none of whom played on this team in 2012.  They are all castoffs from other teams, not free agent stars.  The defensive line is thin, the pass rush is slow, and the secondary is easily fooled.  Things don't look in Raiderland.