NCAA 2013 Week 3 picks

There were fewer surprises and upsets this week, and only one of them was caused by an FCS team -- Nicholls State beating Western Michigan.  Boston College woke up and pulverized Wake Forest, making some analysts (including me) question if Wake will have a good season after all.  Georgia recovered from their close loss to Clemson by rousting South Carolina, scoring so much and so easily that you have to wonder what happened to Clowney.  My Alma Mater, the University of Illinois, completely dominated Cincinnati, proving that the Illini offense is potent.  BYU, after being knocked off by Virginia last week, surprised Texas and knocked them right out of Top 25 contention.  USC lost their Top 25 spot, too, as Washington State held them to a single touchdown and beat the Trojans at home.

What kind of surprises will we see this week?  I don't know, but it might on the first night.

Thurs Sept 12
TCU Horned Frogs at Texas Tech Red Raiders:  The Horned Frogs are a good team, and a strong victory here could propel them to the Top 25.  Tech won't make that easy.  The Raiders aren't overpowering opponents with their offense, as is their history, but their defense is showing promise.  Could they hold back TCU?  Possibly, but I'll still pick the Horned Frogs, although not by enough to make them eligible for the Top 25.  TCU by six

Friday Sept 13
Air Force Falcons at Boise State Broncos:  The Broncos are yet to prove themselves to FBS opponents this season, but they'll get a chance here.  Of course, with Air Force looking anemic, how impressive will it be?  BOISE STATE by 13

Top 25
#2 Ohio State Buckeyes at California Golden Bears:  Cal still hasn't recovered from the beat-down administered by Northwestern.  Now another Big Ten team comes into Berkeley to knock them down further.  OHIO STATE by 27

#3 Wisconsin Badgers at Arizona State Sun Devils:  What preparation has the Sun Devils had to greet one of the most potent offenses in FBS?  An FCS opponent.  This won't be pretty.  WISCONSIN by 26

Tennessee Volunteers at #4 Oregon Ducks:  The Vols have had a terrific season so far.  That won't last.  Their defense is good, but they'll get worn down by the fast-paced offense perfected by the Ducks.  OREGON by 18

Kent State Golden Flashes at #5 LSU Tigers:  This game must have been LSU's idea, as Kent State is wholefully insufficient to make this game competitive.  LSU QB Zach Mettenberger is showing great poise and control, and can run when needed.  The Tigers have both a working offense and stingy defense.  LSU by 27

#6 Louisville Cardinals at Kentucky Wildcats:  Kentucky has enjoyed a couple of good games, but they have their hands full with this one.  Teddy Bridgewater comes to town, and he is likely to GO to town.  LOUISVILLE by 30

Akron Zips at #7 Michigan Wolverines:  Michigan scheduled this game thinking they'd need a breather after Notre Dame.  Instead, they easily pound the Irish and get to coast for a couple of weeks until Big Ten play opens.  MICHIGAN by 34

Nevada Wolf Pack at #8 Florida State Seminoles:  Nevada is a good team, but I don't think they have the power to upset the Seminoles, who are well-stocked on both sides of the ball.  FLORIDA STATE by 20

Lamar Cardinals at #9 Oklahoma State Cowboys:  This game won't affect the Cowboys' Top 25 position, as they aren't likely to lose.  OKLAHOMA STATE by 34

Vanderbilt Commodores at #12 South Carolina Gamecocks:  Jadaveon Clowney is starting to complain that he is being under-utilized, but he forgets that he cannot be everywhere at once.  If his defensive teammates do not step up, he will cause such a rift among the defense that South Carolina will fracture and fall.  At least for this game, they should be able to hold back Vandy.  SOUTH CAROLINA by 17

#15 UCLA Bruins at #13 Nebraska Cornhuskers:  The Cornhuskers offense meets the Bruins defense in a match-up that seems pretty evenly matched.  This one could go either way, but I think Nebraska is a little better in these tight games.  NEBRASKA by three

#!7 Stanford Cardinal at Army Black Knights:  I'm not sure a strong victory here will help the Cardinal that much, as Army's strength is fairly low.  It'll be an easy win, though.  STANFORD by 24

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at #18 Oklahoma Sooners: Tulsa has a decent offense, but Okie's is better.  Throw in a questionnable Tulsa defense, and this will be a Sooner show!  OKLAHOMA by 34

Youngstown State Penguins at #19 Michigan State Spartans:  The Penguins can be a strong program, but I don't foresee an upset here.  The Spartans have a stout defense and a capable offense.  This game won't alter their position on the Top 25.  MICHIGAN STATE by 27

Western Michigan Broncos at #21 Northwestern Wildcats:  The Broncos just lost to FCS Nicholls State, and now they need to travel to offensive powerhouse Northwestern.  This won't be pretty.  NORTHWESTERN by 30

#22 Washington Huskies at Illinois Fighting Illini:  The Illin have already beaten one potential Top 25 team, and now they host another one.  The Huskies had a bye week to relish in their victory over Boise State and prepare for Illini, but can anyone prepare for the offense the Illini are packing?  The Huskies defense makes this an interesting contest, enough that I think the visiting team could win, but watch out for Illinois to engineer an upset.  WASHINGTON by four

#23 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Purdue Boilermakers:  The Irish want to redeem themselves after a tough loss to Michigan.  They ought to get past Purdue, but it may not be as easy as they'd like.  NOTRE DAME by eleven

#24 UCF Golden Knights at Penn State Nittany Lions:  Look at this, five Big Ten teams in a row!  I feel like I'm in the next section.  Penn State has power, especially on the defensive side of the ball, but UCF has shown tremendous strength over the past two games.  I like the team's challenges to knock off the Nittany Lions.  UCF by twelve

UTSA Roadrunners at #25 Arizona Wildcats:  The Wildcats should have a good time tearing up the field against the Roadrunners.  ARIZONA by 28

Big Ten
Bowling Green Falcons at Indiana Hoosiers:  The Hoosiers have produced some great offense the past two weeks, but their defense has been exposed.  Expect the Falcons to take advantage of that.  BOWLING GREEN by 17

Western Illinois Leathernecks at Minnesota Golden Gophers:  The Gophers should stomp on the Leathernecks to advance to 3-0.  MINNESOTA by 21

Iowa Hawkeyes at Iowa State Cyclones  The Hawkeyes haven't been great, but they certainly have played better than the Cyclones, who were beaten by FCS Northern Iowa.  IOWA by ten

Games of Interest
Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Arkansas Razorbacks:  Southern Miss is having a poor year so far.  I'd pick Arkansas even without the power they showed in Week 1.  ARKANSAS by 24

Ball State Cardinals at North Texas Mean Green:  The Cardinals have begun the season with some terrific games.  I expect that trend to continue against the Green, who have not been so consistent.  BALL STATE by 26

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Auburn Tigers:  This might be the Tigers first real challenge, The Bulldogs can be tough, although they failed to demonstrate that against Oklahoma State.  Auburn has improved this year, so look for them to win their first SEC contest.  AUBURN by 13

Maryland Terrapins at UConn Huskies:  Maryland has been tearing up opponents so far, while UConn couldn't even muster a decent performance against Towson.  This one should be easy for the Terps.  MARYLAND by 27

Ole Miss Rebles at Texas Longhorns:  Texas needs to redeem themselves after the BYU shocker.  It won't be easy, as Ole Miss has a good offense as well, but I think Texas' defense will have a slight edge.  TEXAS by nine

Weber State Wildcats at Utah State Aggies:  Weber State got completely wiped by Utah last week.  Different Utah team, similar result,  UTAH STATE by lots

GAME OF THE WEEK:  #1 Alabama Crimson Tide at #16 Texas A&M Aggies:  Alabama has been waiting for this game for nine months -- the rematch against the Aggies.  When they played A&M last year, the name "Johnny Manziel" didn't mean much, and the nickname "Johnny Football" just sounded like a bunch of hype.  Now Manziel is the Heisman Trophy winner, and he acts like an overhyped athlete.  Therein lies the problem -- Manziel now expects to win, and is not listening to his coach.  Meanwhile, clever Nick Saban has had months to devise ways to stop Manziel.  The Tide can do it, and they will, as Manziel takes a slap to the side of the face.  Whether that will wake him up will have to seen in later weeks.  ALABAMA by eight