NFL 2012 Week 4 picks

I'm taking some risks this week, as I am picking plenty of visitors.  However, several visiting teams won last week, and I think the match-ups demand some of the picks I am making. 

Thursday evening: Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens:  The Ravens are a powerful team.  The Browns are improving, but they don't have enough power to upset the Ravens.  RAVENS, 31-13

Sunday early games
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons:  The Falcons have one of the most dynamic offenses.  Carolina makes some good plays, but they aren't posting the same numbers offensively as they did last year.  They won't be able to outscore Matt Ryan and the Falcons.  FALCONS, 31-16

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions:  If Matt Stafford remains on the injured reserve, I don't think Shaun Hill can engineer a win.  The Vikings defense isn't great, but it's good enough to stymie Hill.  If Stafford returns, they might have enough to get past the Vikings, but it'll be dangerously close.  At this point, it sounds like Hill will start, so I'll pick Minnesota.  VIKINGS, 26-20

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills:  The Bills have a better record, but the Patriots have performed better, especially on defense.  Ryan Fitzgerald is still gaining confidence, which means he can be shaken.  The Pats are good at shaking opponents, so that makes them dangerous here.  PATS, 27-23

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs:  The Chargers have one of the most potent offenses, and that offense will be too much for the depleted Chiefs defense.  CHARGERS, 30-17

San Francisco 49ers at New York Jets:  The 49ers have stumbled, but they still have a powerful and dangerous squad.  The Jets have shown life, but their life's blood, the defense, has been down this season.  Given that Revis will be out with injury, that's even more reason to question their defense.  The 49ers defense, though, will be focused on quarterback, either rushing Sanchez or targeting Tim Tebow.  QB is the vulnerable position on the Jets offense, and the 49ers will do a good job in shutting them down.  49ERS, 26-20

Seattle Seahawks at St Louis Rams:  Russell Wilson has the Seahawks offense working, but it's the defense that has been the stronger force so far.  That defense will confuse the Rams offense, allowing Wilson the opportunity to move the ball as he wishes, without having to worry about scoring quickly.  SEAHAWKS, 26-13

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans:  The best defense faces off against the worst defense in the league.  This pick is a no-brainer.  TEXANS, 30-10

Sunday late games
Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars:  Neither team has demonstrated much defense this season, so this will be a high-scoring game.  Let loose, I definitely think the Bengals have the better offense, so they get the edge in this game.  BENGALS, 37-27

Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals:  The Cards have been a surprise team this season, and they've had to deal with rotating quarterbacks.  Their defense is the real surprise, as they are greatly improved from last season.  That defense will help them win this game.  CARDS, 23-16

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers:  The Saints offense has shown some life, but the defense is porous.  That's an excellent situation for Green Bay, whose offense has sputtered a bit so far this season.  Rodgers and company have the chance to really let loose, and they should win in style this week.  PACK, 31-20

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos:  Oakland is another team whose defense hasn't been showing up, and their offense has been spotty, too.  They still rely a bit too much on Darren McFadden.  Manning is still getting used to his new targets in Denver, but he's getting batter each week.  BRONCOS, 26-20

Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Bucs:  This is actually a tough game to pick.  Washington's offense is soaring, but the defense is spotty.  Tampa Bay has a decent defense, but the offense has been inconsistent.  Which team will step up, and which team will exploit the other team's weakness?  The Bucs are good at exploiting weaknesses, so I like their chances.  They would also be another home team pick, which I could use.  However, RGIII is the X factor.  He could spark a late drive to take the lead, and Tampa isn't good at quick scores.  I'll pick Washington, but watch out for the Bucs.  REDSKINS, 27-23

Sunday night: New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles:  The Eagles have turned the ball over way too much this season.  Few teams exploit other teams' turnovers more than the Giants, so if the Eagles cannot hold onto the ball, they have no chance of winning.  GIANTS, 28-17

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:  Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys:  Here's a home team who shouldn't win, but it likely to do so.  The Bears rarely play well on Monday night.  Dallas' offense stinks, and the Bears should be able to beat them easily.  I'll pick the Bears, because this is a strange year and that strangeness might help lift the Bears from their Monday night curse, but I'm afraid Dallas will win this one.  BEARS, 20-16