Tuesday, September 11, 2012

NCAA Week 3 picks

There were plenty of upsets for so early in the season.  Some were FCS teams conquering FBS teams, like Sacramento State's defeat of Colorado, North Dakota State's thumping of Colorado State (wasn't a good day for the state of Colorado, was it?),  and Northern Arizona's squeaker at UNLV (which weakened Minnesota's strength of schedule).  The Big Ten was a major victim, with surprising losses to Wisconsin and Nebraska, both at the hands of Pac-12 teams.  The Sun Belt conference was the source of upset victories, as Arkansas fell to Louisiana-Monroe and Louisiana Tech outscored Houston.  The Utah state rivalry heated up as Utah State beat the Utes for the first time in over fifteen years, and the SEC took a flip as Mississippi State clobbered Auburn.

Thursday, Sept 13
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at South Florida Bulls:  This Big East contest could go either way.  Rutgers has shown promise in the first two weeks, but South Florida hasn't been bad.  It's been the Bulls offense leading the way, which is unusual for this nornally defensive-minded team.  I like Rutgers' strength, but they will be playing a "they score, we score" game.  RUTGERS by six

Friday, Sept 14
Washington State Cougars at UNLV Running Rebels:  UNLV has struggled.  They coughed up the ball in their third overtime against Minnesota and then let Northern Arizona beat them.  Washington State hasn't been a powerhouse, but I think they'll overpower UNLV.  WASHINGTON STATE by nine

Saturday, Sept 15
Top 25:
#1 Alabama Crimson Tide at Arkansas Razorbacks:  Let's face it, any team who loses to lowly Louisiana-Monroe isn't much of a threat, especially to the top team in the land.  ALABAMA by 35

Idaho Vandals at #2 LSU Tigers:  I'm sure that either Alabama or LSU will gain much on the strength of schedule rank with these wins, but a win is a win.  LSU by 34

#3 USC Trojans at #13 Stanford Cardinal:  Stanford has looked good, but without Luck, this team will be out of luck against the hot Trojans, who have it working on both sides of the ball.  USC by 15

California Golden Bears at #4 Ohio State Buckeyes: The Buckeyes are as strong as ever, and they have something to prove.  With Urban Meyer taking the lid off them, they won't show mercy.  Cal will be finished bruised and battered.  OHIO STATE by 27

Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles (FCS) at #5 Oregon Ducks:  The Golden Eagles had better be paid well for this game, because this will be a classic blowout.  OREGON by over 50

Florida Atlantic Owls at #7 Georgia Bulldogs:  The Owls don't have a chance to win.  I'd say they would do well to hold Georgia to less than 50 points.  GEORGIA by 42

North Texas Mean Green at #8 Kansas State Wildcats: After slaughtering Miami last week, pummeling the not-so-Mean Green will be a relaxing effort.  KANSAS STATE by 43

Furman Paladins (FCS) at #9 Clemson Tigers: The Tigers get an easy victory here as their offense rolls up the points.  CLEMSON by 39

#11 Texas Longhorns at Ole Miss Rebels:  Ole Miss has started well, but this will be their first real challenge.  I don't think they'll succeed, but they will give Texas some trouble.  TEXAS by fifteen

UAB Blazers at #12 South Carolina Gamecocks:  South Carolina seems to have recovered from their early stumble at Vandy, and the Blazers aren't a major threat.  SOUTH CAROLINA by 21

#14 Arizona State Sun Devils at Missouri Tigers: Missouri didn't do well in their first SEC conference game, while Arizona State's offense shined.  This will again be an offensive show for the Sun Devils, as Missouri's defense lacks punch.  ARIZONA STATE by 30

South Carolina State Bulldogs (FCS) at #15 Arizona Wildcats:  Another blowout for a Top 25 team facing an FCS opponent.  ARIZONA by 28

Houston Cougars at #16 UCLA Bruins:  The Cougars seem rather toothless this season, which gives UCLA a break.  Their defense is strong, but Houston should give UCLA's offense a chance to show some power.  UCLA by 17

#17 Florida Gators at #21 Tennessee Volunteers:  I would expect Florida to win this game, but Tennessee has shown some life this season and Florida hasn't been as impressive.  The Vols might even lead early in the fourth quarter, but late game comebacks are a specialty of the Gators.  FLORIDA by six

New Mexico Lobos at #18 Texas Tech Red Raiders: The Raiders offense will again be on display, but the Lobos should get a chance to score a bit, too.  TECH by 20

North Carolina Tar Heels at #20 Louisville Cardinals: North Carolina hung in against Wake Forest, so they won't be an easy target.  Louisville has a good offense, complemented by a good defense, so they should be able to win, but won't be a blowout.  LOUISVILLE by ten

Arkansas State Red Wolves at #22 Nebraska Cornhuskers: The Cornhuskers get to redeem themselves after their near-miss against the Bruins.  The Red Wolves can put points on the board, but their defense is weak, which will allow Nebraska to run wild.  NEBRASKA by 24

#23 Ohio Bobcats at Marshall Thundering Herd:  Ohio has been showing up very well, and that will continue.  Marshall has been struggling, and the intense Bobcats will make things tough for them.  OHIO by 17

#24 BYU Cougars at Utah Utes:  Strangely, the Utes have deteriorated since joining the Pac-12 last season, and the collapse continues.  BYU is riding high after two huge victories, and they should add a third to that list.  BYU by 17

#25 Mississippi State Bulldogs at Troy Trojans: Defense is Troy's problem, which the Bulldogs will likely exploit for more than 40 points.  MISS STATE by 28

Big Ten:
Western Michigan Broncos at Minnesota Golden Gophers:  The Gophers get their first real challenge, but they might hold on to win this one.  It could go into overtime, but we know that doesn't bother the Gophers.  MINNESOTA by six

Charleston Southern Buccaneers at Illinois Fighting Illini:  The Illini return home, where they are certainly better.  Their defense will hold the Bucs to perhaps a single score, while the offense gets a chance to rebuild.  Scheelhaase might be back, but I'd actually hold him back for one more week.  This is an excellent opportunity to give Reilly O'Toole some field time.  ILLINOIS by 24

Eastern Michigan Eagles at Purdue Boilermakers: Purdue gets a chance to pulverize a team to remove the bitter taste from their mouths surrounding the Notre Dame near-miss.  PURDUE by 21

UMass Minutemen at Michigan Wolverines:  This game was scheduled before UMass moved up to FBS, but the outcome won't be much different.  Michigan is continuing to improve after their opening weekend embarrassment, and this game will serve as a testbed for some new offensive maneuvers.  MICHIGAN by 27

Boston College Eagles at Northwestern Wildcats:  This will be a close game, and the Wildcats have a tendency to surprise opponents in close games.  I think the home team will win, but BC will provide some scary moments.  NORTHWESTERN by three

Navy Midshipmen at Penn State Nittany Lions: Navy was embarrassed by Notre Dame two weeks ago, and they want a chance to restore some sense of dignity.  They'll get it when they travel to Happy Valley to tackle a deleted Nittany Lions squad.  Navy has a potent running attack, and the Lions' defensive line took a hit from departing students.  Penn State will fight to stay in the game, but eventually the force of the Navy attack will wear them down.  NAVY by 18

Northern Iowa Panthers (FCS) at Iowa Hawkeyes: Iowa lost to in-state rival Iowa State.  They don't want to lose to another state school.  Northern Iowa is a good FCS team, but the Hawkeyes, even as rough as they are this year, will prevent a second state loss in a row.  IOWA by 16

Ball State Cardinals at Indiana Hoosiers: This will be Indiana's first real challenge.  The Cardinals have a strong offense, and they will stretch Indiana's defense.  Indiana's offense is good, too, but they have to match Ball State score to score.  I'm not sure Indiana can do that.  BALL STATE by eight

Utah State Aggies at Wisconsin Badgers: The Aggies are 2-0 and riding high after beating their in-state rival last week.  Wisconsin needs a good win to restore some luster to a program that hasn't been able to get moving.  The Aggies defense won't be able to last four quarters with the bruising Badgers, but the Aggies will take the early lead.  WISCONSIN by 15

Other Games of Interest:
UConn Huskies at Maryland Terrapins: Maryland can go 3-0 after this game, which is vital.  They need that momentum to carry them into their next two games, against West Virginia and Wake Forest.  UConn is struggling, so they should get the win.  MARYLAND by 13

Florida International Golden Panthers at UCF Golden Knights:  The Knights go for the gold in this Florida battle.  UCF looks good this year, while FIU has stumbled out of the gate.  UCF should take this game easily.  UCF by 18

James Madison Dukies (FCS) at West Virginia Mountaineers: West Virginia's offense was on display against Marshall, but their defense was exposed.  That cost them a position on the Top 25, and playing an FCS won't get them there after this week.  It will continue their winning streak, however.  WEST VIRGINIA by 31

Western Illinois Leathernecks (FCS) at Iowa State Cyclones: The Cyclones are having a stellar year, starting 2-0 and defeating state rival Iowa.  The 9-6 score wasn't impressive, although the win was, so the Cyclones crave more.  Western Illinois is a decent FCS team, so a powerful victory helps lift their spirits for their showdown with Texas Tech.  IOWA STATE by 20

FCS Game of the Week:  Bucknell Bison at Delaware Blue Hens:  Both of these two teams have started well and were top teams last year.  Delaware has shown a bit more power, as Bucknell's victory was a two-pointer over the Marist Red Foxes.  Marist is looking good this season, so the win is significant.  Delaware will prove to be a tougher foe, though.  DELAWARE by 14

GAME OF THE WEEK:  #6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at #10 Michigan State Spartans:  Notre Dame beat Purdue handily, but the Spartans defense is much stronger.  The offense seems to have come together after their lackluster opener, so the Irish must be concerned.  Michigan State has the defense to stuff them, and let their rejuvenated offense take off.  MICHIGAN STATE by ten

No comments:

Post a Comment