NCAA 2012 Week 4 picks

There were fewer upsets last week, but some of them were significant.  Two teams lost places on the Top 25 due to losses:  Pitt overcame an atrocious 0-2 start to beat Virginia Tech and remove them from Top 25 contention.  BYU fell to Utah, and fell off the Top 25.  Two other upsets sent teams plunging down the Top 25.  Missouri squeaked by Arizona State to reduce their positions, and USC fell ten spots by falling to Stanford.  Within the Big Ten, we had a near upset as Ohio State struggled against Cal, and an upset based on margin of victory, as Penn State crushed Navy.

Thursday Sept 20: BYU Cougars at Boise State Broncos:  BYU will be motivated to win after last week's loss to Utah.  Furthermore, Boise State is NOT having a Boise State-type year.  This game will be BYU's redemption.  BYU by eleven

Friday Sept 21: Baylor Bears at Louisiana-Monroe Indians:  Without RGIII Baylor is struggling, and the Indians have been a strong force against FBS teams so far this season.  Believe it or not, I'm picking the upset here, and favoring the home Indians.  LOUISIANA-MONROE by thirteen

Top 25
Florida Atlantic Owls at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide:  Another opportunity for the Tide to rack up a huge margin of victory.  BAMA by 36

#2 LSU Tigers at Auburn Tigers:  Auburn has been struggling mightily this season, but this battle always brings out the most in each team.  Statistically, LSU should easily win, but nothing is ever easy between these two.  I'll pick LSU, but it'll be closer than they'd like.  LSU by nine

Michigan Wolverines at #3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish:  Michigan has been improving since their opening loss to Alabama, but the Irish are stronger than even I gave them credit for.  The Irish will dominate here, although not as much as Alabama dominated Michigan.  NOTRE DAME by 13

#16 Arizona Wildcats at #4 Oregon Ducks:  Arizona has a good offense, but Oregon has one of the quickest.  The Ducks have a decent defense, too, so they are dangerous on both sides of the ball.  Arizona will battle, but the Ducks will prevail, and will have a tremendous fourth quarter after exhausting the Wildcats.  OREGON by 14

Vanderbilt Commodores at #5 Georgia Bulldogs:  Vandy started the season well, but this is typically their bane -- the start of SEC play. Georgia is a powerful team this year, which makes matters even worse for the Commodores.  GEORGIA by 17

Missouri Tigers at #8 South Carolina Gamecocks:  Missouri gave Arizona State fits, and South Carolina has a history of faltering against feisty and tough opponents.  The Gamecocks have been getting better at that, but Missouri will keep it dangerously close.  SOUTH CAROLINA by four

UAB Blazers at #9 Ohio State Buckeyes:  The Buckeyes won't find this opponent as tough as Cal, so they get a chance to win a big game before Big Ten play begins.  OHIO STATE by 19

#12 Kansas State Wildcats at #19 Oklahoma Sooners:  K-State has proven that they are for real, after their dismantling of Miami, but the Sooners had an extra week to prepare for this game.  I think that will give them an edge.  OKLAHOMA by three

California Golden Bears at #13 USC Trojans:  Cal gave Ohio State a scare last week, and they are hoping to continue where Stanford left off, and beat the Trojans.  I don't think they'll be able to do that, mainly because USC rarely loses twice in a row, but Cal will make it as tough as they did against Ohio State.  USC by six

Kentucky Wildcats at #14 Florida Gators: Florida isn't as strong as previous years, but they have the defense to slow the Wildcats.  FLORIDA by ten

Oregon State Beavers at #15 UCLA Bruins:  Oregon State has a nasty habit of upsetting at least one Pac-12 opponent each season.  Could UCLA be their victim?  I don't think so.  The upset usually occurs at home, and the Bruins have definitely stepped up from last season's 6-7 debacle.  UCLA by six

Maryland Terrapins at #18 West Virginia Mountaineers:  Maryland is good, but West Virginia is better.  Like many teams, the Mountaineers were lackluster in Week One, but you can't say that about them now.  WEST VIRGINIA by 14

Idaho State Bengals (FCS) at Nebraska Cornhuskers:  One of the few FBS v FCS games this week, this one won't be an upset.  NEBRASKA by lots

#21 Louisville Cardinals at Florida International Golden Panthers:  Sun Belt teams have played other FBS teams pretty tough so far this season, but winning has been difficult.  I think Louisville will win this one, but FIU may keep it closer than Cardinals fans will find comfortable.  LOUISVILLE by six

Utah Utes at #22 Arizona State Sun Devils: After one upset, Utah is looking for another.  They also want to redeem themselves for a terrible Pac-12 season last year.  Utah joined the conference believing they could compete with some of the best teams of the conference, and they were manhandled.  An upset against Arizona State would start to redeem them.  I'm not sure they can do it, but they'll put a scare into the Sun Devils.  ARIZONA STATE by four

#23 Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Arkansas Razorbacks:  Despite preseason expectations, Arkansas has proven to be less than effective.  They couldn't score a point against Alabama, they allowed FCS Jacksonville State to score 24 points, and they fell to upset-minded Louisiana-Monroe.  Rutgers should run all over them.  RUTGERS by eleven

Eastern Michigan Eagles at #24 Michigan State Spartans:  The Spartans need a strong victory to wipe away the bitter taste of last week's defeat, and this game should do that well.  While MAC teams often play Big Ten teams tough, Eastern Michigan isn't a strong team, and the Spartans have something to prove.  MICHIGAN STATE by 17

Norfolk State Spartans (FCS) at #25 Ohio Bobcats:  Ohio will remain the only unbeaten team in the MAC as they clean up in this game.  OHIO by 27

Big Ten
UTEP Miners at Wisconsin Badgers:  UTEP has a good line, so I'm not sure Monte Ball will get going in this game, either.  His Heisman campaign may be effectively negated after this week.  Still, the Badgers have enough tools to win this game, albeit not comfortably.  WISCONSIN by six

Central Michigan Chippewas at Iowa Hawkeyes:  Iowa has to worry that they will lose this game.  MAC teams play Big Ten teams hard, and Iowa has not been doing so well.  I'll pick Iowa, mainly because they are at home, but watch for the upset here.  IOWA by three

South Dakota Coyotes (FCS) at Northwestern Wildcats:  South Dakota is a strong FCS team, but I don't see the upset happening.  Northwestern doesn't win by much, but they find the way to win.  NORTHWESTERN by six

Temple Owls at Penn State Nittany Lions: Penn State seemed to start clicking last week against Navy.  Both the offense and defense started understanding who they were playing with, and they started looking like the Nittany Lions of old.  That's bad news for the Owls, who are struggling under a tough season.  PENN STATE by 17

Syracuse Orange at Minnesota Golden Gophers:  Syracuse lost to Northwestern by only one point and scored 29 points against the Trojans defense.  Minnesota has their hands full in this game and could find themselves with a loss.  I'll pick the Gophers, but this game will be tight.  MINNESOTA by two

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Illinois Fighting Illini:  The unbeaten Bulldogs will give the Illini trouble, especially since their offense is still coming together.  Nathan Scheelhaase and four other starters (three on offense, one on defense) are unlikely to be ready to play on Saturday, leaving much of the second team to battle the Bulldogs.  The Illini seem to play a bit better at home, so I'll give them a thin edge, but things look tough for my Alma Mater.  ILLINOIS by three

Other Games of Interest:
Virginia Cavaliers at TCU Horned Frogs:  The Frogs have played only one FBS opponent, so they are still a bit hard to predict.  However, they seem to have enough power to get past Virginia.  TCU by 14

Miami Hurricanes at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets:  Georgia Tech may have lost to Virginia Tech, but their great game against Virginia makes them a Top 25 contender.  Miami's opening week victory over Boston College no longer looks so impressive, and getting slaughtered by Kansas State didn't help.  I have to give the edge to Georgia Tech.  GEORGIA TECH by 13

Utah State Aggies at Colorado State Rams:  Colorado State has been terrible, which will help the Aggies start 3-1.  UTAH STATE by 20

South Alabama Jaguars at Mississippi State Bulldogs:  South Alabama is not enjoying its first season in FBS, while the Bulldogs are looking to regain their Top 25 standing.  I'm not sure they'll make the Top 25, but a victory is clear.  MISSISSIPPI STATE by 34

San Jose State Spartans at San Diego State Aztecs:  The Spartans have started off well this season, while the Aztecs got buried by Washington.  That's not a stellar recommendation for victory.  SAN JOSE STATE by nine

FCS Game of the Week:  Florida A&M Rattlers at Delaware State Hornets:  These two teams are fairly evenly matched.  Despite a 1-2 record, Delaware State is a good team.  Good enough to beat Florida A&M, who also has a 1-2 record, will depend on consistency.  In none of their games can they sustain pressure throughout the whole game.  If they stumble here, they'll lose.  FLORIDA A&M by six

GAME OF THE WEEK:  #11 Clemson Tigers at #10 Florida State Seminoles:  Florida State proved their power last week with a powerful 52-0 win over Wake Forest.  Clemson has been battling more and tougher FBS teams.  This will be a tremendous battle.  Lead changes should be common, and nobody will get more than a ten point lead.  In the end, I think the team that plays more consistent ball will win, and seems like Clemson to me.  CLEMSON by three