Monday, September 10, 2012

NCAA Week 2 results and Top 25

Apparently bulleted lists don't work in Blogger posts.  This post has been edited to make the Top 25 rankings clear.
 
It's my first Top 25 of the season, so I'll remind the readers how this works.  Margins of victory are only counted for games played against other FBS teams, and strength of schedule is more important than total points.  Thus, some teams that likely will be in the Top 25 in the couple of weeks are not here.  Florida State has the worst situation, as they are 2-0 with no ranking, as they are yet to play a FBS team.

Top 25
1.  Alabama Crimson Tide (2-0) : The reigning National Champ has chewed up opponents so far.
2.  LSU Tigers (2-0) : Last year's National Champ runner-up is just a step down from 'Bama so far
3.  USC Trojans (2-0) : Many players returned to play for their first bowl game, and it might be the BCS     National Championship game
4.  Ohio State Buckeyes (2-0) : Apparently the Buckeyes weren't so badly affected by "tatoo gate" as I thought.  Urban Meyer has rejuvenated this team.  They may be able to play postseason, but they will impress.
5.  Oregon Ducks (2-0) : The defense is porous, but the offense looks just as powerful as last year
6.  Notre Dame Fighting Irish (2-0)
7.  Georgia Bulldogs (2-0) : Georgia has been in this position before, and faltered when SEC play starts.  They beat Missouri in their SEC opener, so Georgia may succeed this time.
8.  Kansas State Wildcats (2-0) : A dismantling of a good Miami team proved that this K-State squad might be their best in years.
9.  Clemson Tigers (2-0) : Beating both Auburn and an expected strong Ball State team puts Clemson squarely in the Top Ten.
10. Michigan State Spartans (2-0) : One of the few bright spots in the Big Ten on Saturday, they woke up from their lethargic state in Week 1
11. Texas Longhorns (2-0) : Strength of schedule takes a major step down outside the Top Ten, but the choice of opponents by many teams to start the season keeps things hopping.  Texas' opponents will get tougher, but what we have seen from their offense should keep them in the Top 25.
12. South Carolina Gamecocks (2-0) : They bounced back from a struggle against Vandy to hand East Carolina an embarrassing loss.
13. Stanford Cardinal (2-0) : It doesn't look like they miss Andrew Luck too much
14. Arizona State Sun Devils (2-0) : The Sun Devils spanked my Illini and proved that they might have some offensive power this season
15. Arizona Wildcats (2-0) : Destroying Oklahoma State accomplished two things: knocked the Cowboys out of Top 25 contention and put the 'Cats into the thick of it
16. UCLA Bruins (2-0) : Four in a row for the Pac-12 now gives them more Top 25 representative than any other conference, including SEC
17. Florida Gators (2-0) : Florida may fall in future weeks; weak schedules for other contenders helped place them here.
18. Texas Tech Red Raiders (2-0) : Tech has played weak opponents, but a blowout offense has helped them.  Like Florida, expect them to fall as competition gets stiffer
19. Oklahoma Sooners (2-0) : Another team who has faced weak opponents, the Sooners will likely rise, as they have looked good so far
20. Louisville Cardinals (2-0) : The Big East's only representative, Louisville has started well
21. Tennessee Volunteers (2-0) : An impressive win over NC State puts Tennessee in the Top 25, but the question becomes, "For how long?"
22. Nebraska Cornhuskers (1-1) : They suffered an upset against UCLA, but the Cornhuskers have still shown power, and they are a rare team who faced two tough opponents to open the season.
23. Ohio Bobcats (2-0) : Ohio opened their season by beating Penn State.  That is proving less impressive, as the Nittany Lions' strength rating drops by the week, but the only unbeaten MAC team gets to spend at least one week in the Top 25
24. BYU Cougars (2-0)
25. Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-0)
On the Edge
Ole Miss Rebels (2-0), UCF Golden Knights (1-1), Rutgers Scarlet Knights (2-0), Iowa State Cyclones (2-0), Maryland Terrapins (2-0)

Big Ten Report
It was not a good week for the conference, as half the teams lost; three of those were upsets.  Michigan redeemed themselves after the thrashing by Alabama, and the Spartans seemed to have corrected some of their offensive issues.  Wisconsin took a step backwards, though, and Illinois' offense collapsed.  The Leaders division will likely be led all season by a team that cannot play for the conference title (Ohio State), so who will represent the division?  Indiana is 2-0, but that won't last.  Penn State is winless, and their chances look dismal.  Wisconsin and Illinois have crucial offensive issues to resolve, which puts Purdue in the drivers' seat.

Right now, ignoring records but based upon their performances in the last two weeks, here's how I see the division teams' relative strengths:
LEGENDS:
1.  Michigan State Spartans (2-0) : Their defense leads the way, but the offense is improving.  With Ohio State on probation, likely the best Big Ten team for postseason, and the best Rose Bowl candidate.
2.  Michigan Wolverines (1-1) : Northwestern and Minnesota are 2-0, but the Wolverines seem to be using the collapse against Alabama to recommit themselves to winning.
3.  Nebraska Cornhuskers (1-1) : Perhaps the best overall offense in the league right now, their defense needs work
4.  Northwestern Wildcats (2-0) : They seem to specialize in close games, and they don't have the consistent defense to win too many of those, but they show promise
5.  Iowa Hawkeyes (1-1) : Hopefully the defeat to their in-state rival will wake them up, but the Cyclones may also be better than we expected
6.  Minnesota Golden Gophers (2-0) : They may be unbeaten, but needing three overtimes to beat UNLV is not a glowing endorsement.
LEADERS:
1.  Ohio State Buckeyes (2-0) : Arguably the best team in the conference
2.  Purdue Boilermakers (1-1) : Notre Dame exposed some weaknesses, but they have fewer places to fix than other teams
3.  Wisconsin Badgers (1-1) : They have problems to fix, but Bret Bielema is excellent at mid-season adjustments.
4.  Illinois Fighting Illini (1-1) : I clearly overestimated the impressions of the new offense.  Reilly O'Toole can't handle the starting QB position, so they need Nathan Scheelhaase back.
5.  Indiana Hoosiers (2-0) : They may surpass Illinois, but right now they haven't quite been impressive enough
6.  Penn State Nittany Lions (0-2) : They won't finish the season winless, but they won't have a winning season

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