NCAA Week 5 picks

There were few true upsets this week, but the Big Ten was again heavily represented.  While I thought Louisiana Tech might beat Illinois, I had no idea they'd score as much as they did, and wipe out the Illini so badly.  That clinched the weakness of Illinois' thin roster and how dependent they are on their injured starters.  Iowa proved their incompetence this season by falling to Central Michigan, one of the weakest teams in the MAC.  The other upset wasn't so much for most people, as many national analysts picked Oregon State.  I even mentioned how they often upset at least one Pac-12 team each year, although typically they beat them at home.  The Beavers proved they have moxie, now they just need one more good win to get into my Top 25.

Thursday evening: #8 Stanford Cardinal at Washington Huskies:  Although most schools tend to schedule a bye week the Saturday before a team plays on Thursday, this is one case where I figure Stanford didn't need it.  Washington may have a 2-1 record, but one victory was against FCS Portland State and the other was a squeaker against struggling San Diego State.  I think their 38-point loss against LSU is a greater indicator of their (in)ability.  This one will be a slaughter.  STANFORD by 31

Friday evening:  Hawaii Warriors at BYU Cougars:  Hawaii typically struggles on the road, and this year they're looking worse than usual.  BYU hasn't been stellar, but beating Hawaii in their condition shouldn't be a challenge.  BYU by 20

Top 25
Ole Miss Rebels at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide:  I almost feel sorry for Ole Miss.  Here they've been having an excellent season, and they open SEC conference play against the top team in the country.  Ah well, someone had to.  BAMA by 31

#2 Oregon Ducks at Washington State Cougars:  Oregon completely destroyed Arizona last week.  What they do to the Cougars won't be pretty.  OREGON by 35

Towson Tigers (FCS) at #3 LSU Tigers:  Unlike last week's Tigers v Tigers game, this one won't be close.  LSU by lots

Tennessee Volunteers at #4 Georgia Bulldogs:  Tennessee's only loss so far has been against Florida.  Now they face another SEC challenge, this one far greater.  GEORGIA by 28

#5 South Carolina Gamecocks at Kentucky Wildcats:  It seems like the first week of SEC play will feature many one-sided games. This one may be smaller than the others, but not because the Gamecocks aren't as good, but because they are stronger defensively than offensively.  SOUTH CAROLINA by 23

#6 Texas Longhorns at Oklahoma State Cowboys:  The Big XII have more unbeaten teams (seven) than any other conference.  This game won't cause one to lose, as Texas has been playing very well, and had an extra week to devise a most devastating offensive scheme.  TEXAS by 18

#9 Florida State Seminoles at South Florida Bulls:  The Seminoles have proven themselves to be the strongest team in Florida this college season, and this game will confirm that.  The Bulls' normally strong defense has been somewhat lacking so far this season, and their offense has been lacking.  Florida State has one shutout already this season -- could this be their second?  FLORIDA STATE by 30

#10 Ohio State Buckeyes at #25 Michigan State Spartans:  This is where the rubber meets the road for the Spartans.  They've been winning, but cautiously building their offense.  Now, to get past Ohio State, that offense will have to perform.  The Spartans defense is sturdy this season, perhaps even more sturdy than that of Ohio State, but the Buckeyes have also been improving.  This game will measure the Spartans' growth.  They might win, but I have to favor the Buckeyes, simply because they have the proven talent to succeed in these battles.  OHIO STATE by six

#14 Baylor Bears at #16 West Virginia Mountaineers:  The Big XII will be short one unbeaten team at the conclusion of this contest.  This was my initial choice for Game of the Week, but I had a special reason for choosing the one I did (no fair scrolling down and reading about it now).  Baylor's defense has not shown up well, allowing weak opponents to score way too many points.  How will that translate to a powerful offensive like West Virginia's?  This game will light up the scoreboard, and I think the Mountaineers will end up the winner, mainly because they have a bit more going for them on the defensive side of the ball.  WEST VIRGINIA by four

#!5 TCU Horned Frogs at SMU Mustangs:  This is a Big XII team that should remain unbeaten.  TCU has been pretty clam until last week, but the 20-point over Virginia may have marked a turning point.  This game won't really tell us, as SMU isn't strong, but we may see some interesting fireworks from TCU in the coming weeks.  TCU by 21

#17 Texas Tech Red Raiders at Iowa State Cyclones:  Another Big XII unbeaten team will fall, as two 3-0 teams face off.  Both had last week off, so we don't know what they have planned.  Tech scores big but has a weak defense, while Iowa State has been a strange team with no consistent trend.  That makes them unpredictable, and makes them dangerous.  I'll pick Tech, but watch out for Iowa State pulling off a surprise.  TEXAS TECH by six

#18 UCLA Bruins at Colorado Buffaloes:  The Buffs, who looked like they'd have another pathetic season, pulled off a surprise against Washington State last week.  Can they do it again?  I don't think so, especially since UCLA wants to clean out the sting administered by Oregon State.  UCLA by 16

#19 Clemson Tigers at Boston College Eagles:  This has been a tough season for BC, and it doesn't get any easier this week.  Clemson is out to prove something after letting Florida State come back last week.  The Tigers will take an early lead and continue to pound away.  CLEMSON by 23

#21 Arizona State Sun Devils at California Golden Bears:  Cal may give the Sun Devils a real challenge!  Cal has only won one game, but they have pushed all of their opponents.  This one will be another offensive explosion.  I'll favor Arizona State, but this game is definitely on upset watch.  ARIZONA STATE by six

Wisconsin Badgers at #22 Nebraska Cornhuskers:  Wisconsin finally got their offense moving last week, but I'm not sure we can count on them continuing to do so.  Nebraska can be tough, especially on the ground, which is (normally) Wisconsin's forte.  Nebraska sees a chance to redeem last season's embarrassment against the Badgers, and I think they'll make the most of the opportunity.  NEBRASKA by 14

#23 Louisville Cardinals at Southern Miss Golden Eagles:  The Golden Eagles are currently winless, and I don't see that situation changing after this game.  Louisville hasn't won big, but they have won.  Southern Miss has lost big, including a 30-point scrubbing by Western Kentucky.  A poor defense is the big problem, and that defense may give Louisville their biggest victory of the season.  LOUISVILLE by 20

Big Ten
Indiana Hoosiers at Northwestern Wildcats:  Northwestern hasn't been winning by large margins, but they have found ways to win.  I think that will continue here.  Indiana hasn't been bad this season, but they just can't stop good offenses.  Northwestern has a good offense.  Their defense isn't hot, so the Hoosiers will get to score, but Northwestern should triumph in the end.  NORTHWESTERN by six

Penn State Nittany Lions at Illinois Fighting Illini:  Here's where I differ from my preseason predictions.  I thought Penn State would still be reeling from the loss of the transferred players, and that Illinois would be riding a 3-1 non-conference record.  Instead, Illinois has an injured line-up and Penn State is coming on.  Even if the Illini get some of their injured players back for this game, the Nittany Lions play tough, and those guys may be re-injured.  The Illini bench is too thin on talent to win this one.  PENN STATE by 13

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Iowa Hawkeyes:  Another game that goes against my preseason predictions.  Minnesota has shown tenacity in close games so far this season, a fine quality for a winning team.  Iowa has shown inconsistency and a tendency to melt down in the fourth quarter.  I think this will once again be a close game, but it goes Minnesota's way.  MINNESOTA by four

Other Games of Interest
Missouri Tigers at UCF Golden Knights:  Missouri has looked poor in this first season in the SEC, but they are unbeaten outside the conference.  They turned back a decent Arizona State team, so you have to wonder if UCF can beat them.  I give the Knights an edge, though.  They lost to Ohio State, but they've looked good in their other games, with a stable mix of offense and defense.  Missouri can score, but they can't stop opponents from scoring.  That gives UCF an edge.  UCF by eight

Arkansas Razorbacks at Texas A&M Aggies:  I'd have to say that Arkansas has been one of this season's biggest disappointments.  Tagged by many in the preseason to compete for a division title in the SEC, the Razorbacks have instead lost to every FBS team they have faced, including last week's nine-point loss to Rutgers.  A&M, on the other hand, has fought well in their first season in the SEC, despite losing their first conference game.  TEXAS A&M by ten

Nevada Wolf Pack at Texas State Bobcats:  A one-point loss to South Florida is the only blemish on Nevada's resume this season.  While Texas State has okay in their first FBS season, including defeating Houston by eighteen points, I don't think they can surpass the power of Nevada.  NEVADA by 18

Ohio Bobcats at UMass Minutemen:  Ohio is hanging just outside of the Top 25.  If a couple of upsets happen, they can be right back in the thick of it.  UMass, on the other hand, is not enjoying their first FBS season.  OHIO by 17

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Virginia Cavaliers:  Virginia has not been well the past couple of weeks, while the Bulldogs just tore through Illinois last week.  The Bulldogs are likely to do the same against defensively-challenged Virginia.  LOUISIANA TECH by 27

Virginia Tech Hokies at Cincinnati Bearcats  Cincy hasn't played for a couple of weeks, and they're ready for bear.  They're feeling good about their chances, despite Tech's blowout of Bowling Green last week.  Why?  Because Pitt stung the Hokies while Cincy has already beaten the Panthers.  I think Tech started slow and are getting better, so I'll pick them, but watch for the Bearcats to pull off the scare, and potentially the win.  VIRGINIA TECH by four

San Jose State Spartans at Navy Midshipmen:  Navy has sprung a leak this season, making them easy pickings.  San Jose's defense isn't stellar, but Navy is mostly one-dimensional, running most of the time.  I think the Spartans will do a good enough job of slowing that down.  SAN JOSE STATE by eleven

UNLV Running Rebels at Utah State Aggies:  UNLV snuck past Air Force, but they really aren't good this year; after all, they lost to both Washington State and Northern Arizona.  Utah State is a powerhouse, having lost only to Wisconsin (by two points).  With Louisiana Tech unbeaten, these two are keeping the WAC viable.  UTAH STATE by 14

FCS Game of the Week:  Monmouth Hawks at Albany Great Danes:  The two leaders of the Northeast Conference face off this week, and I get to see it live!  Monmouth has looked a little better, so I give them the edge, but I'm rooting for my Danes!  Albany has been down so much, this season is a wonderful contrast, and I'd like to see how far Albany can take it.  They have never played in the Football Championship series, and I'd love to see it happen this year.  MONMOUTH by four

GAME OF THE WEEK:  Oregon State Beavers at Arizona Wildcats:  This game I picked simply because of the emotions involved on both teams, and how that might translate to interesting play on the field.  Oregon State is unbeaten, but hasn't garnered the kind of attention received by their unbeaten state rival.  Arizona was slaughtered by Oregon last week and need a strong game to bounce back.  Both teams have something to prove, so this will be an offensive nailbiter.  I give the edge to the Beavers, but they'd better watch out for an angry Wildcat team that doesn't want to be beaten by Oregon teams in two consecutive weeks.  OREGON STATE by six