Tuesday, September 4, 2012

NFL 2012 - NFC preview

Now for the second half of my NFL previews.  There may be some interesting surprises in this conference, including one of the playoff bye teams.

NFC East
1.  New York Giants (5-1 in division/9-7 overall):  The Super Bowl Champions are the favorite to win this competitive division, although the level of competitiveness may be down this season.  Despite winning the Super Bowl, the Giants had a very low-ranked running game.  They boosted that part of their offense by drafting Virginia Tech runner David Wilson.  The rest of the squad is still solid, but their key defenders are getting old.
2.  Philadelphia Eagles (3-3/7-9): The Eagles start rookie Nick Foles at quarterback due to the injury to Michael Vick.  They have some good receivers, but the offensive line is not used to blocking so strongly because Vick is so mobile.  Foles will have more of a problem.  He will be supported by RB Sean McCoy, at least until he gets injured.
3.  Dallas Cowboys (2-4/6-10): Let's face it, the Cowboys have the same problems they've had the last two years.  This team just can't seem to fix themselves, and that will continue to falter until they do.
4.  Washington Redskins (2-4/6-10): Robert Griffin III brings high expectations to this season, but he can't do it alone.  He has some good receivers, including Pierre Garcon from the Colts, and a pair of running backs to support him.  The problem is the defense.  The Redskins spent so much of the free agency and draft to support RGIII, they practically ignored the defense.  They did improve their safeties, but that was about it.

NFC North
Changes are in the wind, especially in the Windy City.  The former "black and blue" division that churned out ground yardage takes to the air, as most of the teams focus on the passing game.
1.  Chicago Bears (4-2/12-4; playoff bye): I am not favoring the Bears solely because they are my favorite team.  Sports Illustrated agrees with me that the Bears are (ahem) "loaded for Bear" this season.  Dane Sanzenbacher lit up the scoreboard in the preseason, proving he deserves the hype that surrounded him last season.  The acquisition of Brandon Marshall further increases the number of targets for Jay Cutler.  A beefier offensive line should provide Cutler better protection.  Matt Forte is happy now, having signed a new 4-year contract in the off-season.  Biran Urlacher's return from ulcer surgery also strengthens the team.
2.  Green Bay Packers (5-1/11-5; wildcard team): The Pack looks to improve on their record-setting passing offense from last season, but they need help in their running game.  They cannot completely succeed with a one-dimensional offense.  Their defense also suffers from some miscommunication on the field, which will hurt them.  They can outscore mediocre offenses, but strong offenses with a good defense will give them problems.
3.  Detroit Lions (3-3/9-7; wildcard team): Matt Sttafford and the passing offense is still strong; in fact, he and receiver Calvin Johnson are looking to increase the number of receptions between them.  Unfortunately, their defense is still a weakness.  In fact, they've already two projected starters due to off-season arrests and one projected starter to injury.  Their secondary is especially weak, making them susceptible to strong passing teams, like Chicago and Green Bay.
4.  Minnesota Vikings (0-6/4-12): Christian Ponder should improve, but that process will be slowed by strong opposing defenses and an iffy defense on this own team, which will pressure Ponder to score often.  Fortunately Ponder has a great corps of receivers.  He also has Adrian Petersen, who is widely considered the best runner in the division.  He seems to have slowed after his two injuries from last season, so he may not make as much of an impact for his team that Matt Forte will for Chicago.

NFC South
1.  New Orleans Saints (4-2/9-7):  Chaos from the bounty sanctions will hurt this team, but they should still succeed.  Their defense suffers the most from the sanctions.  It'll be interesting to see what happens to the coaching when Joe Vitt comes back from his six-game suspension.
2.  Atlanta Falcons (3-3/9-7): The team is shifting their offensive scheme to focus on deep passes, but quick sidelines passes are the specialty of QB Matt Ryan.  Apparently they think that a long-distance passing game will solve their playoff problems, but I don't think they'll reach the playoffs this season.  They spent so much effort in the off-season changing the passing scheme, they forgot to improve the defense.
3.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3/6-10): The offensive line must protect the quarterback better.  The Bucs have no third string QB, and both Josh Freeman and Dan Orlovsky were wearing knee braces in the preseason.  At least the acquisitions of Vincent Jackson and Dallas Clark will help the quarterbacks release the pass quickly.
4.  Carolina Panthers (2-4/6-10): Cam Newton won't surprise as many teams as he did last season, but he should still run a high-powered offense.  He may want to stay in the pocket a bit more this season, as opposing defenses will be gunning for him.  They definitely need to score lots of points, as the defense is poor.

NFC West
1.  San Francisco 49ers (5-1/12-4): They had one of the toughest defenses last season, but an injury-depleted wide receiving corps hurt them come playoff time.  The 49ers beefed up that corps with the off-season acquisitions of Randy Moss, Mario Manningham, and Illinois' A.J. Jenkins.  Now they are the favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
2.  Seattle Seahawks (3-3/8-8): Wisconsin rookie Russell Wilson won the starting QB job, making six rookie starting quarterbacks in Week One.  He has a few good targets, but the experience is thin.  Marshawn Lynch is the only stable running back, so he needs to remain healthy for their running game to succeed.  The Seahawks have a very physical defense.  That can cause problems for opponents, but it might also cause alarm with officials, and their antics may draw penalty flags.
3.  St Louis Rams (2-4/7-9): The Rams should take a big jump forward this season, as Sam Bradford continues to grow into his duties.  He has a few too many young receivers to catch his passes, but at least the running game is secure with Stephen Jackson.  A favorable schedule helps the Rams improvement, as well.
4.  Arizona Cardinals (2-4/6-10): John Skelton was the last starting quarterback announced, even though he was given plenty of time with the starting offense in spring practice and preseason.  Skelton has some talented receivers, but the corps is thin.  Worse, the running game is iffy.  The defense is okay, but they have some key holes along the line.  A strong secondary gives them a good passing defense, but talented runners could gain chunks of yardage.

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