I knew I was in trouble when I picked so many visitors. Did I learn my lesson? Nope, I'm doing it again, but this time I'm gambling on some upsets, too. Let's see how that turns out for me.
Top Ten teams [Last week's position]
1. Denver Broncos (4-0) [1] : No other offense comes close to the yards and points racked up by the Broncos. They are on track to be the most proficient offense in NFL history. The key? They have to remain healthy, especially that offensive line. For now, they are the most powerful team in the league.
2. New Orleans Saints (4-0) [4] : This team's offense is rolling, and their defense is no slouch, either. The Saints have had great performances, but perhaps their best was the complete dominance of Miami on Monday Night Football. They have surpassed Seattle as the best team in the NFL.
3. Seattle Seahawks (4-0) [2] : And here are those Seahawks. They still have the most dominant defense in the league, and that defense prevented their first loss of the season. The offense showed cracks last week, though, so they need to rebound.
4. Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) [3] : Beating up on the Giants was no challenge, but that doesn't dampen the enthusiasm of Chiefs fans. After a dismal 2-14 season last year, this 4-0 start is thrilling. They deserve to celebrate -- this team is well-designed and well-built.
5. New England Patriots (4-0) [6] : The Patriots are still winning, and Brady is getting more comfortable with his new receivers. That will start to shake up the league.
6. Indianapolis Colts (3-1) [9] : Though Luck still needs to work on his consistency, the Colts are rising. If they continue to improve their running game, and the defense toughens a bit more, this team could contend for the AFC Conference title.
7. Detroit Lions (3-1) [10] : The Lions bumped off the Bears to take the NFC North lead. The Lions offense is hot, and the defense forced four turnovers. This team is dangerous.
8. Chicago Bears (3-1) [7] : Jay Cutler had one of his poor games; he tends to have two or three a season. The defense didn't cover him enough this time, but they still engineered a tremendous turnaround in the fourth quarter.
9. Tennessee Titans (3-1) [14] : The Titans had a colossal week last week, but they were playing the Jets. With the loss of Jake Locker, who was having a great season, the Titans could struggle.
10. Miami Dolphins (3-1) [5] : Miami was embarrassed by the Saints on Monday Night Football. This team has the skill to bounce back, but this was a setback.
Divisional ranks [Last week's position]
1. AFC West [1] : With two top ten teams and a third with a positive point differential, this division is the toughest there is -- even Oakland can give opponents fits.
2. AFC East [2] : The only division lacking a team with a losing record, their success is a bit of a surprise. Both rookie quarterbacks are playing okay, and they find ways to win.
3. NFC North [3] : The worst team is Minnesota, and it looks like they gained new life in London. It'll be interesting to see how Green Bay comes off their bye week.
4. AFC South [5] : This division has been consistently improving each week. Jacksonville brings them down, but the other teams are looking good. Locker's injury may drop Tennessee, though, so we'll have to see how long they can retain this position.
5. NFC South [4] : This division has only one team with a winning record, but they aren't weak. Carolina and Atlanta have talent, and the Bucs are poised to end their losing streak. This division could move up, especially if Tennessee falters.
6. NFC West [6] : The 49ers found their offense again and even Arizona is showing spunk. Don't count this division down just yet; there is still plenty of season to play.
7. AFC North [7] : The Browns seem to be improving without Trent Richardson and with Brian Hoyer, but the other teams don't seem to have things together.
8. NFC East [8] : Right now it looks like 8-8 will win this division. That's not good.
Thursday game
Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns : EJ Manuel is doing a good job with Buffalo, but Brian Hoyer has breathed new life into the Browns. Moreover, the Browns defense is actually the best in the AFC North. I have to favor the Browns to get above .500, a place they have rarely occupied. BROWNS, 23-16
Sunday early games
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins : It hasn't been an easy season for the defending Super Bowl champs. Apparently they lost too much talent in the off-season. Miami, on the other hand, has expanded theirs. Ryan Tannehill has the offense clicking, and the defense is pretty strong, too. DOLPHINS, 23-21
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers : Green Bay had an extra week to prepare for this game. The Pack tend to do well in the week following their bye, and I expect that trend to continue, although the Lions will give them a battle. PACKERS, 31-27
Jacksonville Jaguars at St Louis Rams : Let's face it, the Jags are going to the underdogs in every game they play this season. They have the weakest offense in the league, and their defense is among the four worst. Not even special teams helps them! The Rams aren't great, but they should be able to triumph over the Jags. RAMS, 24-16
Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans : Former Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick takes over for Jake Locker while he is out injured. Fitzpatrick has experience as a starter, but not with this crew. He does have a good defense to support him, but unfortunately he has to face the red-hot Chiefs in his debut. That will be a tough task. CHIEFS, 21-13
New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals If the Bengals had won last week, I would pick them to upset the unbeaten Patriots. However, the Browns exposed some vulnerabilities, and nobody is better at exploiting vulnerable spots than Bill Belichick. PATRIOTS, 23-16
New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears : I'd love to pick my Bears to upset the Saints, as I need to pick more home teams. However, the Saints offense is strong, and their defense will hound the Bears line. Cutler will have a better game than last week, but I have to pick against them. If the Bears defense perks up, though, the upset could happen. SAINTS, 27-20
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants : I may need to pick more home teams, but this ain't one of them. The Giants defense stinks this season, which will open up possibilities for the fast-paced Eagles offense. The Eagles are still adjusting to Chip Kelly's style of play, and this game will give them some additional practice. EAGLES, 23-13
Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts : Seattle may be the next unbeaten to break. They nearly lost on the road last week, and they face a tougher challenge in the Colts. Russell Wilson and the Seahawks defense may stage another fourth quarter comeback, but I think they'll fall short this time. COLTS, 27-23
Sunday late games
Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals : This should be a pretty close game. The Panthers had an extra week to prepare, while Arizona is coming off their defensive victory against the Bucs. The Panthers offense and Cam Newton might be a tougher challenge for the Cards defense, however. PANTHERS, 23-20
Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys : I'm uncomfortable picking so many visiting teams, but I can't pick against the potent Broncos, especially since the Cowboys defense isn't spectacular right now. BRONCOS, 34-21
Sunday night games
Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers : The 49ers offense perked up last week, and the Texans showed that they can be stalled by a good defense. The 49ers should have the upper hand in this game, so long as their offense works like they did last week and in Week 1, rather than the disaster that took the field in Weeks 2 and 3. 49ERS, 27-20
San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders : This game was moved from the afternoon due to a lengthy resetting of the field after a baseball playoff game the night before. If Oakland thinks the extra delay will make their opponent sluggish, I think they're wrong. Not only is San Diego in the same time zone, but they are used to baseball-related delays. CHARGERS, 24-17
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
New York Jets at Atlanta Falcons : Atlanta is 1-3, but that will change. The Falcons have the talent. Their defense has been the problem. Some new linebackers who are still learning the system leaves them pretty toothless in pass rushing situations. Fortunately, the Jets offense is weak enough for the Falcons to win. FALCONS, 24-16
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